Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Rebel Stakes (G2)

 Longshot plays in the Rebel Stakes

 By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome to Oaklawn. Thirteen contenders are entered in the $1.25 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, a 2024 Kentucky Derby qualifier with a great weather forecast and a fast track. 

The Rebel is carded as race 11 of 12, with a 5:23 CT post time.

 

 

A lot to digest in this race. There are some obvious standouts in here.

#7 Timberlake – Cox/Torres  -  Class of the field, won the Champaign Stakes but came up short in the BC Juvenile and lost some ground in the final 16^th. Hasn't raced since. Fastest speed in the field and will likely press the pace. Five works since '24 started with a bullet on the 10^th. Cox is consistent at getting his stable ready. Torres has been a winning jockey at Oaklawn. Win contender.

#11 Just Steel – Lukas/Vazquez  - Second in the Smarty Jones here and followed that with a second (by 8) in the muddy Southwest Stakes, losing to McPeek's Mystic Dan*. In two attempts over a wet track, he has not done well. A fast track should help here. ITM play.

#1 Carbone – Asmussen/Castillo  - He may have been a victim of the wet track last time in the Southwest. On a fast track he has shown much better. He shows excellent speed, has the rail, and has a driving finish style. I like his chances to upset the top two. A special play with this guy.

#2 Northern Flame – McPeek/Leparoux – the two wins of seven races have come when he is on the front and stays. He nearly lost his last out to #10 Mena going shorter, which may indicate some regression. He will likely be part of the pace, but I don't trust him to finish ITM.

#13 Time for Truth -  Moquett/Bejarano  - Broke his maiden sprinting first time out against 11 others on the last day of '23. Came back in a black type sprint and placed second. The speed for bothering races were excellent, and if he can overcome the outside post he might enrich the loot in an exacta/trifecta.

Longshot Plays 

As noted above with Carbone, Show me some sustainable speed and a closing kick, and I'll look favorable on ya.

#6 Dimatic – Asmussen/Gaffalione  - The connections alone make me enthusiastic. Dimatic broke his maiden last out on the same day as the Southwest and had a 3-length lead when he saw something that made him lug out but recovered quickly and drove home against 11 others. Rosario was abroad that day, but he'll be at the Saudi Cup swapping saddles with Gaffalione. Tyler is wicked good at Oaklawn, and this mid pack closing Gun Runner colt is ideal for this race. Longshot play.

#12 Woodcourt – Contreras/Esquivel  - New to the Contreras barn and made a splash closing against 10 others here in late January to win by a neck. His other wins have come from a midpack closing style. The trainer is a 29% win or at Oaklawn and the jockey is over 60% ITM. Like him in any exotics.

#3 Common Defense  - McPeek/Hernandez B. – Great breeding in this colt and another who failed in the Southwest. Didn't get away well, didn't get up into the field, just didn't do what was expected. But here is the thing; McPeek puts his top jock aboard who won the Southwest by 8 lengths and although the speed figures given in the pps don't stand out the time for a mile at this track on fast ground say he could be a play in the exactas.

Handigambling

The odds for the favorite are just prohibitive to bet. I'm not going to spend a lot on this one and hope some reasonable prices show up on top with a good longshot under. Only betting Exactas and small win bets here

$2 Exacta   - 1,6,7,11, with 1,3,6,12,13 - $36

Alternate $2 Exacta – 1,6,7,11,12,13 with 3,12,13 - $32

Dutch Win bets - $13 on 13, $10 on 12, $7 on 3 – all bets will payout $200 at the ML odds. - $30

Watch Mystic Dan in the Arkansas Derby….could be serious player in the Derby

BONUS BET

Saudi Cup – Longshot Box or Play them as winners.

$1 Exacta Box – #1 Carmel Road – Won the Faisal Cup here last out, Super Jockey up

#6 Isolate – Fast pacesetter  

#7 Lemon Pop – OTM once in 14 tries, can go long

#10 Power in Numbers – ITM 2 for 2 here and won four in a row

#12 Senor Buscador – Like to be ITM, 2^nd in the Pegasus WC.