Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Clark Stakes (G2)

Looking for an edge in the Clark Stakes

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

Greetings folks! Our ThoroFan race of the week is the $600,000 Clark Stakes. The traditional day after Thanksgiving feature is a Grade 2 event for three-year-olds and up going nine furlongs on the dirt under the legendary Twin Spires of Churchill Downs with a post time scheduled for 5:48 pm.

The Clark is among the oldest races in the United States, having first been run in 1875, the year Churchill Downs opened and is named in honor of Colonel M. Lewis Clark, founder of the Louisville Jockey Club which built the racetrack. Since its inception, the Clark has been run at various distances, but its current 1 1/8-miles has remained constant since 1955.

A field of 10 will enter the starting gate with four of the runners being graded stakes winners, but none having won above the G3 level. A few of the horses have competed in G1 and G2 company and have performed well. Do those races against better possibly give them the edge? Let’s have a look at the lineup from the rail out.

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - Straight Arrow – Florent Geroux/Michael Dini – 8/1 -Ships in off a two-race winning streak, albeit against New York state-bred runners. Both of those victories came in the mud, so he certainly would appreciate an off-track. He should get a nice ground saving journey having drawn the rail. The switch to Geroux is a big plus, but overall, it probably won’t be enough as this is a big step up.

2 - First Mission – Luis Saez/Brad Cox - 3/1 - The only blemish (if you want to call it that) on this lightly-raced sophomore son of Street Sense’s record was his second-place finish in his maiden debut. Since then, he has reeled off three straight including the G3 Lexington two back with a speed figure good enough to win this. He is owned by Godolphin Stables who won this race the last two years with Maxfield (2021) and Proxy (2022). Has worked well in preparation for this.

3 - Il Miracolo – Tyler Gafflione/Antonio Sano – 4/1 - Another three-year-old trying older horses. He was based in Florida during the winter for the Kentucky Derby trail, but that didn’t work out well as he couldn’t compete against the likes of Forte and Mage. He’s been well traveled the second half of 2023 and three back at Parx he scored a big win in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes, then was beaten a head in G2 Fayette last time out.

4 - Gasoline – Flavien Prat/Todd Pletcher – 5/1 - A winner of three of his last four, including his last two over this surface, so maybe he’s found a home here. This will be his first try in graded stakes after successfully going through his allowance conditions. His last was a huge win with a pretty good speed figure that puts him right there. He’s moving up in class, but makes his third start off a layoff, a category trainer Pletcher excels with.

5 - Trademark – Fernando De La Cruz/Victoria Oliver – 6/1 - This four-year old has made the most starts in the field and two back he was beaten a head in the G2 Lukas Classic after getting to the lead in the Churchill Downs stretch., earning a speed figure that could get his picture taken if he can repeat it. However, his form went south last time out with his seventh-place finish in the Fayette, so he will need to find a way to rebound big time to compete here.

6 – Film Star – Jose Lezcano/Linda Rice – 5/1 - Has a pretty good record at this distance with a pair of wins and second-place finishes. He was runner-up in the G2 Woodward Stakes behind Zandon and last start he was beaten less than two lengths in the G2 Forty Niner Stakes. Ships in for the always dangerous Linda Rice, so the horse must be respected from that angle as Rice has a high win rate (23%) with shippers.

7 - Giant Game – Martin Garcia/Dale Romans – 12/1 - Another G3 winner, but that win in the Cornhusker in July was the last time he got his picture taken, He did earn the highest speed figure in the field from that win, but that came when he was loose on an uncontested lead, something that probably he won’t get here with other speed present. He failed to beat a weaker field last race, so this is a tough task to secure a win against this group.

8 - Happy American – Declan Cannon/Neil Pessin – 20/1 - This guy has competed in nothing but graded stakes his last eight races and to his credit he managed a third place showing in the G1 Stephen Foster back in July. He was given a break following that race, but his two starts following the rest have been sub-par. He will need major improvement to beat this field.

9 - Strange Raider – Brian Hernandez/Cherie Devaux – 12/1 - Enters off a sixth-place finish against Cody’s Wish in the G1 BC Dirt Mile. He ran very well in the G3 Ack Ack back in September where he finished second, beaten a length here at Churchill. Overall, his speed figures pale in comparison when matched against others and that alone makes me think he’s not capable of breaking through to win this.

10 - Blue Devil – Javier Castellano/Jeff Hiles – 10/1 - Has been in excellent form since the beginning of June, having not missed a top three finish in five outings, including representing himself very well in the Lukas Classic where he finished third, beaten just a length. He’s been off for nearly two months but has performed well in the past returning from a layoff, so he’s capable in this spot. Trainer Hiles is winless at this meet and has never won a graded stake, but the switch to Castellano is a positive and may be what the horse needs to get it done.

 

ANALYSIS

The makeup of this field indicates there is plenty of early foot which could accelerate the pace up front, favoring runners from behind. With that said, I’ve settled on a pair of horses that will be tracking behind the leaders and one of them should prevail.

First Mission defeated older allowance runners last race, showing patience and perseverance when getting blocked in the upper stretch and he beat a quality field two back in the Lexington Stakes. He’s lightly raced and has banked three wins in a row. The talent is there, and he has the most upside.

Il Miracolo was only beaten a head in his first try against his elders last out in the Fayette. His speed figure from that effort and the figure from his third-place finish at Parx in the G1 Pa Derby are solid. He’s in very good form right now and wouldn’t take much improvement from his last two races to come out on top.

WAGER

Between the two choices, Il Miracolo gets the call. The Antonio Sano runner will be more attractive odds opposed to First Mission, who will likely be the betting choice. Maybe too low for my liking. However, I will put both horses together in an exacta.

Win and Place on Il Miracolo

Exacta Box: Il Miracolo/First Mission

For the tri’s and/or supers, readers can add in whoever they feel comfortable with.

For the record, I will be using Blue Devil to fill out my trifecta.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Hill Prince Stakes (G2)

Longshot could pay royal price in Hill Prince Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

It’s been tough sledding for turf runners in NY this year.  One would think with all the rain in Saratoga this summer followed by similar precipitation once racing moved back to the Metro area that Mother Nature only likes dirt racing.   

Well, NYRA will take another shot to run some quality races on the green and may get the chance on Saturday with the G2 Hill Prince for straight 3yo going 1 1/8^th miles.  The forecast looks to be mostly dry.  Perhaps Mother Nature is focused elsewhere and we can get down to the business at hand. 

Chad sends out three entries.  Shug has got one in that looks like he could be any kind.  There are a few others that look like they are starting to put things together.  Overall, it is an interesting puzzle.  Here is the field:

 

 

1.    Freedom Trail (J. Ortiz/J. Terranova) 8-1 – A two-time winner on this course to start his career, ran the best race of his life in his last against older allowance foes.  Earlier this year he dabbled at the graded level finishing mid pack.  He has some late foot but will need to really step up his game to contend.

2.   Laurel Valley (D. Davis/M. Maker) 30-1 –  Has a NY bred maiden win to his credit.  Looks out classed here

3.   Integration (K. Carmouche/C. McGaughey) Even -  Shug rarely sends out maiden winners back in graded stakes but that is exactly what he did with this son of Quality Road.  He was rewarded with a Virginia Derby triumph in impressive fashion.  Integration ran down a G1 winner in Program Trading in that event and looked to do it rather easily.  This race goes through him.  He has a speed figure edge and Shug generally improves his horses with each start.

4.   Equitize (GB) (I. Ortiz Jr./C. Brown) 5-1 –  The 1^st of Chad Brown’s entrants.  He has only one start – a Tampa maiden win back in March.  He hinted at talent in that event although was green.  One might think he is entered as a filler but Mr. Brown is a master at placing his horses.  Make no mistake, he belongs if Chad thinks he belongs.   

5.   Faraday (JJ. Castellano/C. Brown) 10-1 – The 2^nd Brown entrant owns a Saratoga maiden win and a Kentucky Downs allowance victory both at longer distances.  He benefited in both his wins closing into a strong pace, according to TimeformUS.  I’m not sure he will get that here.

6.   Toofareastiswest (J. Rosario/M. Trombetta) 20-1 – Toofareastiswest has 5 in the money finishes in 6 tries.  He also finished behind today’s rival in Faraday back in July but since he has 2 victories with one at Laurel.  However, he is interesting to me.  One of his losses was to Runaway Storm who won the G3 Bryan Station at Keenland last month, so he has some quality.  His loss to Faraday was when he was hopelessly wide the entire trip.  He put it together in his last 2 and is improving at a price.

7.   Quality Chic (I. Castillo/D. Jacobson) 15-1 – He has 1 turf start to his name – a CD maiden race when he was in Kenny McPeek’s barn.  His maiden win was in an off the turfer at AQU.  I wonder if his current trainer is hoping Mother Nature moves this to the main track.

8.   I’m Very Busy (M. Franco/C. Brown) 6-1 – The last of Chad’s entries hinted at ability last year being sent off at 6to1 in the Breeder’s Cup Juvi Turf.  He ran 10^th of 14 beaten less than 4 lengths.  He looks to be rounding back to form after an authoritative win in his last attending a sharp pace and separating from his foes.  Again, Chad doesn’t enter them without a chance. 

9.   Classic Catch (J. Alvarado/T. Pletcher) 8-1 – Been trying to get on the green but has been rained off in his last 2.  He’s run some fast figures on dirt and if that transfers to the turf, he may be dangerous.  That said, he did regress off his race 2 back.  I don’t like backing horses that aren’t moving forward.

10.MTO Crupi (K. Carmouche/T. Pletcher) 9/5 - If it is moved to the main, he is a winner.

 

ANALYSIS

If you are a speed figure person, Integration has the edge.  Add the fact that he ran down a G1 winner in Program Trading who had a better trip and the jump on him, he passes the eye test as well. 

Of the Chads, I suppose none of the three would surprise me as each can win.  Equitize (GB) is the most interesting because he has proven the least but is still entered.  I guess I’d take I’m Very Busy over Faraday because of the back class and maybe he didn’t enjoy the Spa. 

Of the others, Toofareastiswest is very intriguing.  I think he will be overlooked but has just as much upside as the others and he is 20-1 on the morning line.  Visually, he has a ton of upside.  His speed figures are a bit lighter than I’d like but he is developing and that’s how you get the long odds.

I think the exacta of Integration with any of the Chads will be over bet but certainly with Equitize (GB). 

 

THE BET: Based on $100 budget.

$30 win 6

$15 exacta box 3,6

$10 exacta box 4,6

$20 exacta 3 with 6

Good Luck!

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Red Smith Handicap (G2)

  Three contenders stand out in the        Red Smith Handicap

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $300,000 Grade 2 Red Smith Handicap drew twelve entries, along with four AE's  is a lot to digest. Especially when almost all have some close figures, given the surface and distance. Of the scheduled runners, three stick out and are likely winners of this challenging 1 3/8 mile trek on the turf.

 

I'll talk about my top three and then expand for exotic plays.

8. Soldier Rising – Clement/Ortiz, JL – This one has been on a streak of second-place finishes in Grade I races since May, with the exception of the Grade II Bowling Green two back at Saratoga. Got badly bumped coming to the stretch turn and was done from there. The other Grade I races, when you lose to horses like Red Knight, Up to the Mark, Bolshoi Ballet, and War Like Goddess, maybe you're strong enough to win here. He's been ITM 16 of his 20 races with $1.2 in the bank. Win contender and must use for any exotics.

6. Nineeleventurbo – Drysdale/Rosario – His pace tracking running style for this race may be ideal as we have a couple of horses (#1 Lost Ark & #3 Main Event) who love the lead. It's true that he has not been in the big ranks, but then, he doesn't know that. He does know that he finished second to Golden Phoenix in the Del Mar Handicap going this distance. I think Drysdale is on the right track and certainly picked well for his jockey. The 'old school' 6 furlong work is also something I like to see going this distance. Win contender? Possibly, but it's an Exacta play for sure.

7. Marwad – Moubarak/Castellano  - He's been back on the work tab since September after a five-month break. Lightly raced, and his last out after the break was not terrible. He should improve, and he has Castellano up for the mount, and they won at Gulfstream, going the distance and closing pace of 112. Win contender? Might surprise at a price. Must play in any exotics.

Others have potential to be ITM and should be played in exotics.

2. So High – came in one length back of Soldier Rising in the Turf Classic at BAQ. Lead most of the way going 1 and 1/2.

3. Main Event  - Front runner who's never gone this far. Won last out in front running style and his first win for the year.

4. Cross Boarder – Won last out going 1 and 1/2 winning a black type by 2 and 1/2. Older horse who has made his mark with $1.3 to show for his efforts.

5. Limited Liability  - Third by one in the Sycamore at Keeneland last out. Likes to run mid-pack and seems to have trouble closing the deal.

10. Verstappen  - If he comes back to his form July when he lost to Channel Maker in the Sycamore, he may be a threat to get second.

AE horses

13. Classic Catch appears to be the only one who has speed to keep up with the main entries and will have to work out a trip.

Playing the Red Smith

Several of these have seen each other in action. It should be quite a race, and I believe that a horse who can track the leaders and make the distance will be the winner.

I'm going to take the new shooter 6 long across the board, $20 WPS.

A $1 Exacta 6 with All and a $1 Trifecta 8,7,4,10 with 6 with 8,7,4,10.

Good Luck.