Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Rebel Stakes (G2)

 West vs. East in Rebel Stakes Renewal

By: Stuart deVoe, ThorFan Handicapper

The road to the Kentucky Derby is now in full swing since this round of preps offers the winner enough points to get in the starting gate.  The top five finishers earn points on a scale of 50-20-15-5.   This weekend’s stop is Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas and the $1 million Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles.  An off track is expected as there is a 60% chance of rain.   

A salty group of eleven 3-year-olds, all with Derby dreams, will face the starter and look to grab the lion’s share of this $1 million purse.  As handicappers, we must keep in mind that the springtime of a horse’s 3-year-old season is when the most physical and development occurs.  Any one of these charges can make a dramatic improvement in mere weeks and a boy becomes a man just like that.  We must decipher where each entrant is on that arch of maturation.  Not an easy task. 

On the human side of things, we find the usual suspects.  Steve Asmussen has 3 entered (Powerful, Red Route One & Gun Pilot).  Brad Cox has the two morning line favorites (Verifying & Giant Mischief).   Baffert sort of has one but that horse (Reincarnate) is now transferred to Tim Yakteen – you know the story.  Sprinkle in a little D. Wayne (Bourbon Bash) and McPeek (Frosted Departure), who always enters to see if they fit, and now we have a horse race!

Here's the field:

 

Verifying (Geroux/Cox) 2-1 – This Justify colt came back last month trouncing N1X allowance foes by over 5 lengths.  Verifying beat 2 next out winners, one of which he faces today (Gun Pilot).  He was G1 placed over the slop in only his 2^nd career start and earned his way into the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile where a poor start dashed his chances.  Brad Cox gives a leg up to his main jockey in Florent Geroux.  He looks like he means business with the race over the track and the quality he has already displayed.  I do question the rail draw for him.  He likes to be forward in his races and there seems to be a fair amount of speed to his outside.  He may get a very dirty trip.  At low odds, I am willing to fade him, but he certainly is a WIN CONTENDER.

Powerful (Castillo/Asmussen) 20-1 – The first of Mr. Steve’s triumvirate seems aggressively spotted off a maiden win and a sprint stake win.  Those wins sandwich a poor effort in the G1 Breeder’s Futurity at KEE.  Clearly, the nation’s winningest trainer sees something in him.  He will be on the engine and is bred to go long and like the slop.  He will have to prove it to me for my backing.  OUTSIDER

Red Route One (Torres/Asmussen) 10-1 – The second from Mr. Steve seems to rounding into good form as he ran 2^nd to Arabian Knight, the current Derby favorite, in the sloppy Southwest here at OP last month.  This Winchell homebred will get a pace into which he can close and if the pace is as hot as expected he is not without a chance.  That said, he had a perfect set up in his last and was never catching the winner.  BOARD CONTENDER

Gun Pilot (Santana/Asmussen) 8-1 – The last of the Mr. Steve brigade in another one on the improve.  Verifying dusted him in his two-turn debut but he came back 3 weeks later and ran a much-improved race.  This Gun Runner colt is an early foal (February) and I like how he “learned something” in his last start.  Instead of gunning to the lead as he did in his first 2 starts, he listened to his jockey, rated and then ran down his foes in a very professional manner. He will have to improve again to win.  BOARD CONTENDER

Giant Mischief (Ortiz Jr./Cox) 5-2 – Brad Cox goes for the nation’s leading rider for one of the morning line favorites.  He has 2 wins and a 2^nd in three starts but none against graded company. His speed figures say he fits and this looks like a good starting point for him this year.  Reading a bit between the lines, perhaps the 1 1/8 Risen Star was too far for him to start off.  He has trained this winter at Fair Grounds where that event was held last week but ships in here.  I’m also not sure what to make of the fact that Florent gets off this horse to ride Verifying.  If he didn’t get Irad or another big name jock, then it would be a big red flag.  WIN CONTENDER

Reincarnate (Velazquez/Yakteen) 7-2 – This former Baffert runner looks like he could be any kind.  In his last, he looked dead to rights in deep stretch after getting hounded on the lead the entire way.  However, he dug in and held off Newgate who came back to win a stake in his next start.  I love how he has some battle scars.  On the downside, he looks best on the lead and will have plenty of company today.  I don’t think he needs the lead but that is his game.  Johnny V. went out to California to get good horses and he may have found one here.  They will have to pass him in the stretch to win.  WIN CONTENDER

Confidence Game (Graham/Desormeaux) 15-1 – Another Fair Grounds shipper shows up in Hot Springs.  Confidence Game exits the G3 Lacomte where he pressed the pace and got a bit late.  He is also another how likes to be forward.  I think he will find this pace a bit taxing.  TOSS

Talladega (Prat/Brisset) 30-1 – A recent MSW winner here at Oaklawn will find the waters a bit deeper today.  Looks like he has some quality, and you will get paid if you like him.  I don’t.  TOSS

Event Detail (Corrales/Lobo) 30-1 – Bossed Turfway MSW company in his 3^rd start last month.  I see the owners of a pricy City of Light colt ($600k) taking a shot at getting some return on their investment.  I get it if I owned him.  I don’t and don’t plan to for this 1 1/16^th mile journey.  TOSS

Bourbon Bash (Michel/Lukas) 20-1 – Has danced 8 times so far with only a maiden win to his credit.  D. Wayne is clearly taking a shot here.  Again, I get it but…  TOSS

Frosted Departure (Arrieta/McPeek) 20-1 – Kenny sends out the most experienced runner of the group with 10 starts.  Breaking from the outside post with more speed to his inside this Frosted colt will have to learn to rate, save ground and pass rivals late.  He’s never done that going a route of ground in the past.  He may be able to do some of those things but I can’t back him to do all of them.  OUTSIDER

SUMMARY: 

I find that when there are a handful of win contenders a race often comes down to trip.  Given the expected off track, I like to look for horses that will stay clean and clear.  That means out of the mud, kickback and traffic.  It’s just less to overcome. 

That said, Reincarnate is my man!  Although Tim Yakteen is listed as the trainer, this is a Baffert runner – at least in my mind for today.  That means he has been trained to run fast and hard for the entire race.  At the 7-2 m/l I find that a juicy price and I think in this deep field he will be just about that. 

Reincarnate can run them off their feet, just like Baffert’s Arabian Knight did in last month’s Southwest Stakes.  I feel that horses like Powerful, Bourbon Bash, Frosted Departure, Talladega and Confidence Game will all chase and fade and could create some issues for the backers. 

Horses like Verifying, Giant Mischief and Gun Pilot will have to work out a trip in the mud to make some noise.  Gun Pilot offers the most value.  That said, most of my play will be in the win pool as I feel that has the most amount of certainty.

THE BET: Based on $100

$85 win Reincarnate

$15 exacta Reincarnate – Gun Pilot

Good Luck!!

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

Hoosier Pick for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes?

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $300,000 Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, named, of course, for the Champion and fan favorite, is a major stepping stone to the 2023 Kentucky Oaks. The 1 1/16 mile contest offers a scale of 50-20-15-10-5 points to the first five finishers, in this case, to all but the unfortunate lass who finishes last.

 

Oddly enough, Rachel Alexandra never competed in the prep, which has undergone a few name changes over the years. However, that doesn't diminish the significance of the race, and the winner's roll call reads like a who's who of accomplished fillies.

Untapable, Monomoy Girl, Serengeti Empress, Summerly, and Silverbulletday are some of the names enshrined as Rachel Alexandra/ Kentucky Oaks winners. Other notables are Grade 1 heroines Clairiere, I'm a Chatterbox, Shadow Cast, and Take Charge Lady, to name but a few.

This year's edition of the Rachel Alexandra contains a competitive field of six led by Hoosier Philly. However, favorites win this race only 33% of the time, so let's examine the field for the most likely to upset the race.

The Rachel Alexandra Stakes is the 3-year-old debut of Hoosier Philly (6-5). Into Mischief's undefeated daughter was last seen in November, easily conquering the Golden Rod (G2) field, including Knockyoursocksoff and Pretty Mischievous, by five lengths. Hoosier Philly has won her trio of lifetime starts by over 14 lengths.

Tom Amos has kept the pretty gray filly busy in the mornings, firing three consecutive pre-race bullets at the Fair Grounds. Hoosier Philly has tactical speed and can press or follow the pace. 50% of Tom Amoss' 3-year-old charges hit the board in stakes when making their 3-year-old debut after a layoff.

Chop Chop (8-5) shook the dust off in the Silverbulletday Stakes. City of Light's daughter had a three-wide trip throughout and was carried six-wide around the turn into the stretch by The Alys Look. The pair dueled down the lane, but Chop Chop got a little leg weary after her earlier efforts and finished a length behind The Alys Look. To her credit, the rest were over 13 lengths behind. The Brad Cox trainee is poised to move forward off the effort and poses the most significant threat to Hoosier Philly

Last year, Chop Chop fought eventual champ Wonder Wheel to a nose decision in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1), Chop Chop missed the photo, but the race showed her determination and class. She had a very wide trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and never threatened.

She gets a shiny new set of blinkers to keep her focused. Brad Cox has a 13% win rate and 50% in the money with 3-year-olds in their second start off the layoff and first-time blinkers.

Pretty Mischievous (9-2) tasted defeat for the only time in her short four-race career at the hooves of Hoosier Philly in the Golden Rod. It was the Brendan Walsh trainee's first try at two turns and in a stakes. Previously she beat lesser foes sprinting, and after her Golden Rod effort, she returned to capture the 1 mile 70 yard Untapable Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths, beating Vahva. Like the top two contenders, Pretty Mischievous has tactical speed.

Vahva (8-1) graduated in her third start, then faced Pretty Mischievous in the Untapable Stakes. The Cherie DeVaux went to her knees at the start, and Luis Saez gave her time to recover. She made a wide rally around the turn, but in an effort to find room in the stretch, Saez took her to the inside, then back outside. They lost precious ground with the maneuver but continued to gain third place. Gun Runner's daughter should appreciate the extra distance; if she gets a clean start, she could surprise. DeVaux's 3-year-olds hit the board 48% off the layoff.    

Knockyoursocksoff (12-1) has been knocking at the door of a stakes victory, but she's faced tough company. Kitten's Joy's daughter began her career on turf. She graduated at first asking and finished a distant five-length second in the Jessamine Stakes (G2) after a very slow start and a wide rally.

Then the Chris Block trainee made a successful switch to dirt and finished strongly to finish second behind Hoosier Philly in the Golden Rod. Knockyoursocksoff has a strong closing kick and may rely on a swift early pace to set up her run.

Last year, Turnerloose returned from a 14^th-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies to capture the Rachel Alexandra at double-digit odds.

Miracle (12-1) steps into open company after struggling against New York restricted stakes class runners. She's hit the board in all four starts, but her only victory was debuting against state-bred maidens. Mendelssohn's daughter makes her first start for the Pletcher barn and has a tough assignment ahead of her. Miracle does her best work on the lead, yet she loses ground in the stretch, which is not a good indicator that she'll handle two turns.   

 

Analysis

The favorite has won four times and placed three times in the last dozen years. Nine winners hit the board in their last start, and six won off the layoff.

Miracle is the likely pacesetter but unlikely winner. She'll vie for the lead early from her outside post. The rest will be content to sort themselves out behind her.

With only six runners entered, this is a jockey's race. There's a confirmed pacesetter (Miracle) and one-run closer (Knockyoursocksoff), and the rest will sort themselves out in between.  

Hoosier Philly is the obvious one to beat. Undefeated has beaten others in the field and has spectacular works. What's not to like? It's hard to bet against a deserved favorite.

So who can step up if Hoosier Philly stubs a hoof? Pretty much, anyone, it becomes wide open at that point.

Chop Chop has the physical advantage; she's the sole filly with a recent race under her girth.

Pretty Mischievous is an obvious choice, but I like Vahva to turn the tables. Knockyoursocksoff will make a late move and should be included.

2. Hoosier Philly (6-5)

4. Chop Chop (8-5)

1. Vahva (8-1)

5. Pretty Mischievous (9-2)

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3)

Hot Pace in Sam Davis Stakes - Who will Prevail?

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $250,000 Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the first of two 2023 Kentucky Derby qualifying preps contested at Tampa Bay Downs, and it is a stepping stone to the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 11. The top five official finishers are awarded a scale of 20-8-6-4-2 qualifying points.

 

The 1 1/16 mile event is featured as race ten of 11. A dozen 3-year-old colts and geldings are entered, including Remsen Stakes (G2) winner Dubyuhnell, the Pasco Stakes winner and runner-up Zydeceaux and Champions Dream, plus the Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner (through disqualification) Dreaming of Kona.

This year's Sam Davis Stakes is wide-open, and a case can be made for and against most contenders. So let's take a closer look at the field.

Favorites

7. Dubyuhnell (9-5) won two of three career starts, both victories over sloppy tracks. His Brisnet speed rating jumped from a tepid 83 at a mile when he graduated in his second start to a 100 rating in the Remsen Stakes (G2). Good Magic's son has tactical speed and can close or press. Contender.

9. Champions Dream (9-2) closed to miss the victory in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes as the beaten favorite in his first start for the Mark Casse barn. He ping-ponged between rivals at the start of the race and then raced widest of all at the back of the six-horse field. Champions Dream made a sustained drive around the turn, then battled down the lane with a stubborn Zydeceaux, who wouldn't let him pass.

Previously, Champions Dream captured the one-mile Nashua (G3) for Danny Gargan. Justify's son is making his first start around two turns and should enjoy the extra distance. Contender.

11. Litigate (5-1) was no match for Cyclone Mischief while making his second career start. He finished best of the rest, 5 ¾ lengths behind, and got his final quarter in a pokey 27.25. Unfortunately, the winner returned to finish a dull seventh in the Holy Bull Stakes, so class is suspect. On a positive note, the Todd Pletcher trainee drilled two recent bullets, including a pre-race four furlongs in :48.13. Over the last three years, Pletcher has 11% winners with 37% in the money, with 3-year-olds making their second start off the layoff in a graded stakes. Exotics.

 

Live Longshots

3. Classic Legacy (12-1) Is making his first start of the season after graduating in his third try last year at Aqueduct. This seems an odd place for Classic Legacy to start his 3-year-old campaign; however, Bill Mott has been on fire this winter, capturing the Pegasus Invitational (G1) and recently completing the exacta in the Holy Bull (G3). Over the last five years, Mott has started a trio of last-out maiden winners making their first start at three in a stakes. He hit the board with two, including Tactius in the Tampa Bay Derby. Over the last three months, Mott and Alvarado hit the winner's circle 22% of the time and were in the money 47%. Additionally, Classic Legacy has tactical speed and can lay off a hot pace. Contender.

2. Prairie Hawk (6-1) enters the Sam Davis with two straight victories at Tampa for Saffie Joseph, Jr. In his last start, he beat only three rivals, including Groveland by a length. However, Curlin's son's speed ratings are rising, plus leading jock Samy Camacho is in the driver's seat. Additionally, Prairie Hawk's half-brother Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), which is evidence of class. On the downside, Prairie Hawk will have to deal with other speed types. Still worth a look at 6-1 odds. Exotics.

10. Dreaming of Kona (12-1) earned the Mucho Macho Man Stakes victory through DQ when he was impeded by Legacy Isle coming over on him in deep stretch. It was 5 ¾ lengths back to the third-place finisher. The Mucho Macho Man lost some luster when Legacy Isle faded to fourth place after setting the pace in the Holy Bull (G3). Still, Dreaming of Kona can sit off the pace, and he's never finished out of the money. Exotics.

 

Summary

Three favorites have won in the last decade, and three completed the trifecta. Eight placed first or second in their previous start, four at Gulfstream. The majority of the winners were pacesetters or pressers.

The winning profile fits 11 of the 12 entries, so yes, this is a very contentious race.

There's a ton of speed in the Sam Davis. In fact, the entire field are pacesetter/presser types. Zydeceaux, on the far outside, is a confirmed speedster. He also has a sprinter's pedigree and may be used early to get to the front. However, I predict he'll fade when the actual running starts.

I'm going with the longshot Classic Legacy on top. Mott doesn't ship for the fun of it, plus Mott, Alvarado, and the sire, Into Mischief, have been on fire lately. At 12-1 morning odds, it's an enticing bet.

3. Classic Legacy (12-1)

7. Dubyuhnell (9-5)

9. Champions Dream (9-2)

2. Prairie Hawk (6-1)