Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Bing Crosby Stakes (G1)

 Singing the Praises of the Bing Crosby Stakes

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

 

Saturday at 8:30 pm Eastern time is the $400,000 Grade 1 Bing Crosby States for 3-year-olds and upward on the dirt at 6 furlongs held at beautiful Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar CA.  

You may have noticed that thus far Del Mar races have had large fields and this race is no exception with ten horses entered. 

 

Old Bing would enjoy this, no doubt singing Where the Turf meets the Surf as the horses entered the racetrack.   

 

 

In this field we will first take a look at Shaaz, trained by Bob Baffert. After leaving the Baffert Barn for one race due to his suspension he returns. 

This colt, sired by Uncle Mo, is lightly raced, having only raced 4 times and now a 4-year-old. But he likes to cash tickets, having 3 wins and a show to his racing line. 

Shaaz comes off a mile race 2 months ago. Baffert should  have him cranked to go six furlongs. With his fasted race coming at 6.5 furlongs, we believe this spring distance will be the preferred distance for this horse.  

Unlike Shaaz, Drain the Clock has significant racing form with 14 starts for this 4-year-old, including 7 graded stakes. He also has 3 wins out of 6 starts at six furlongs. 

This will be Drain the Clock’s second start after a rest from running in Dubai back in March. His recent workouts seem to show he is now back to racing form. Should be the early pace leader. Joseph Saffie is the trainer. 

Principe Carlo lost by just a nose to American Theorem in his last race, the Triple Bend Stakes at Santa Anita racetrack. That was 7 furlongs, so the shorter distance should suit this 6-year-old better where he has had 4 placings in 7 starts at the distance. 

Also, Principe Carlo had a nice sharp workout on the Del Mar surface last week. Baracio Labrado is the trainer. 

 

Analysis 

With a competitive large field, you should get fair value odds on whoever you like. 

We would be happy getting Shaaz at 3-1 or higher come post time. Baffert loves to win, especially coming off the Churchill Downs and NYRA suspensions, and he has the horse in Shaaz to do it. 

We look for a fast affair in this spring duel with Drain the Clock your pace leader, and Shaaz and Principe Carlo getting up for the win and place over Drain the Clock. 

Here are our plays:  

$50 Win on Shaaz 

$25 Exacta Box on Shaaz/Principe Carlo

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Haskell Stakes (G1)

 Jack Christopher Ready for 2-Turn Test in Haskell

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

 

Welcome to the “2^nd Half” of the three-year-old season!  With the Triple Crown and all its buildup soundly in the rearview mirror, the racing world briefly shifts its focus to Monmouth Park in Oceanport, NJ where the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes will be contested going 1 1/8 miles on Saturday under a hot New Jersey sun.  A field of 8 will face the starter at approximately 5:45pm. 

There are some familiar faces, both human and equine, from the aforementioned Triple Crown as well as a formidable “new shooter” to the top echelon of the sophomore class. 

You may have heard of Bob Baffert who has won this event NINE times with horses like American Pharoah and Authentic.  He brings in Taiba, a very impressive Santa Anita Derby winner who may have been rushed into the Derby. 

Brad Cox who won this race last year with Mandaloun shows up with Cyberknife. He won the Arkansas Derby and may be coming into his own. 

Chad Brown, a 2018 Haskell winner (Good Magic), shows up with the exciting Jack Christopher.  Some thought he could be any kind before an injury knocked him out of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and hence the Triple Crown trail. 

He came back with two scintillating victories in Grade 1s albeit around one turn. 

Finally, the other major player in here is White Abarrio who took down Gulfstream’s Holy Bull and Florida Derby.  Can he win up north? 

Let’s get to it!

    1.  Cyberknife (6-1 F. Geroux/B. Cox) Brad Cox is a trainer that has the ability to build on a horse’s talent.  Cyberknife has gotten progressively faster since the spring.  He took down the G3 Matt Winn in his last start just nosing out Howling Time.  I like the effort, sort of.  He was a bit keen flanking that rival until the top of the stretch where he looked like he would blow by him.  But, he didn’t.  They did beat 3^rd by 6 lengths which is usually a good sign.  Is he ready to take on the big boys? Perhaps…LONGSHOT CHANCE.

 

    2.   Taiba (7-5 M. Smith/B. Baffert) This Gun Runner colt brought $1.7million at a 2yo sale and quickly hinted that the lofty price tag may have been worth it with 2 triple digit Beyers to commence his career.  The latter was in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby where he ran away from the highly touted Messier.  That effort made him 2^nd choice in the Derby but that was a bit much for his third lifetime start.  Now, after regrouping, he is back, along with his silver haired wizard trainer.  My guess is that they both want to make a splash in their return to the big stage.  WIN CONTENDER.

 

    3.   One Time Willard (30-1 P. Lopez/ J. Stephens) No disrespect to he or his connections but he is purely filler in this race.  TOSS

 

    4.   Howling Time (10-1 J. Talamo/D. Romans)  He seems like a useful horse.  I wouldn’t mind owning him.  He lost a heartbreaker to Cyberknife in his last at CD.  I don’t think he is up to this kind of task as the waters are much deeper here.  TOSS.

 

    5.   King of Hollywood (30-1 N. Juarez/G. Sacco)  A two time winner with 13 starts.  Those wins were in a 30k maiden claimer at Turfway and an “a other than” at this track.  Speaking of deep waters…TOSS.

 

    6.   White Abarrio (5-1 J.Rosario/S. Joseph Jr.)  This grey by Race Day sports 4 wins in 7 starts including the G3 Holy Bull and G1 Florida Derby.  If you put a line through his Kentucky Derby where he didn’t run, he may not look half bad.  That said, he has something to prove.  The Florida road to the Derby didn’t look that strong (Charge It may make me look like a fool) this year and he came back with a respectable 2^nd to Tawny Port in the G3 Ohio Derby.  He was close to a fast pace and stayed on.  A win here would be a minor surprise but not out of left field.   LONGSHOT CHANCE.

 

    7.   Jack Christopher (3-2 J. Ortiz/C. Brown)  This is a SERIOUS horse.  He is smart.  He is fast.  He just may be the best of the crop.  The big question is can he get the distance?  Yes he can.  If you watch him run, he waits for the rider’s cue and then takes off.  Once the jock stops riding, he throws up his ears as if to say, “that’s it!?”.  Beat him to win.  WIN CONTENDER.

 

    8.   Benevengo (20-1 A. Rodriguez/J. Cruz)   Three wins in four starts.  He’s won going a route of ground over this strip.  So far so good.  But beating up on Monmouth allowance foes is a different kettle of fish than the G1 Haskell facing the “Baffert/Brown Brigade”.  Did someone say filler?  TOSS.

 

Summary: 

The top two choices tower over the rest of the field. 

Both Taiba and Jack Christopher look like the real deal.  They have run fast and done so authoritatively. 

White Abarrio also has a G1 to his credit but did so in a more workmanlike fashion against a suspect bunch. 

The rest of the field would need some help from the Racing Gods to make the exacta. 

As handicappers, we must “crack some eggs” or make decisions on where to put our money down. 

I have a ton of respect for Taiba.  He could win for sure.  He must overcome his Derby debacle, shipping across country and a 10-week layoff. 

On the other hand, Jack Christopher skipped the Derby, is making his 3^rd start of a form cycle and took a van ride from Belmont to Monmouth. 

 

The Bet 

At even money or better, Jack Christopher is my win bet.  I am not a fan of trying to create an exacta in trying to beat my clear 2^nd choice (Taiba).  I just don’t do it well.  At short odds, my dollars must count.

$100 to win Jack Christopher (at even money or better)  If he is under even money…no wager.

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Diana Stakes (G1)

 Which Chad Brown Filly will win the Diana Stakes?

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

Diana was the Greek Goddess of the Hunt and believed to be able to converse with animals. Two skills fitting for a horse race. Perhaps she will whisper to one of the six in this small field that it is her turn to win. 

 

However, she has not told this handicapper anything, so I need to roll-up my sleeves and pick the winner. The real question for this years Diana Stakes (GI) is which of Chad Brown’s horses will win. With 4 of 6 in the field coming from his barn that seems like a certainty. Let’s look at the field to be sure.

 

     1.       Technical Analysis (Kingman -GB) One of Brown’s pace setters. Jose Ortiz jumps back on rather than on In Italian who gets Rosario for the first time. Should be in the mix at the end.

    2.       Creative Flair (Dubawi-IRE) Comes off a long layoff which has not hurt her in the past. Jockey/Trainer have the highest win percentage. Comes in lighter than in previous. Will be poised to close for some of the money.

    3.       Bleecker Street (Quality Road) Looks like the one to beat. Undefeated in seven races. Irad Ortiz stays up. Working OK. Will be rocketing in the stretch. If the pace is sufficiently fast, she should win.

    4.       Rougir (Territories-IRE) Another Brown runner that needs a torrid pace. Failed to catch Bleeker Street in last which was a 10-furlong event. Saving a furlong this time may make the distance.

    5.       Dalika (Pastorius-GER) She is well traveled and working nicely. Step-up in company may be too much. Santana has a second try on her. Gets a little relief in weight.

    6.       In Italian (Dubawi-IRE) Another pacesetter for Brown. Gets Rosario for the first time. The extra distance may be too much for her. May be in the exotics.

    Analysis 

This race will be totally a jockey’s race. However, with the quality of jockeys in the race It is hard to see any riding weaknesses. The small field of six will unlikely cause traffic problems for any. It will come down to which jockey can judge the evolving pace and move perfectly at the right time.

Although seems that Bleeker Street will remain undefeated, Prat on Rougir may pull the upset. Here is how they will finish:

     4.     Rougir (3-1)

     3.       Bleeker Street (6-5)

     6.       In Italian (6-1)

     2.       Creative Flair (8-1)

Handigamble:

$2 TriBox--#2, #3, #4 and #6--$48

$5 TriKey--#4 with #2, #3 and #6--$30

$20 win --#4

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1)

International Standouts in Belmont Derby

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

An international field of 13 3-year-old colts, including entries from Ireland and France, are set to travel 1 ¼ miles over the turf in the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) on the close of the spring meet.  The only thing that's missing is an entry from Japan.

 

Let’s take a look at the field.

 

 

All the colts have seen graded stakes competition before and either won or were in the money, making for a tough analysis of the race and pace. Because of that, I chose to use three criteria to make selections.

1. Stamina and breeding - find the best of the best and give a plus to those that have proven their ability to stay.

2. Running style based on how the pace is expected to play out. In this case, a moderate pace is expected, and closers might have a rough time in the stretch.

3. And those who've been over the course get a plus.

Given the above, the 13 - Stone Age has shown his ability to go the distance on the lawn. He likes the front and stays, pulling away two furlongs from home in his last win.

10 - Nations Pride has also gone the distance while tracking off a leader finishing with a furious pace. Hard to argue with these two on top, given their experience, running style, and connections. They only lack a trip over Belmont's inner turf, but their breeding is all about turf racing. 

Now are those who best suit the course and have done well at a distance. There are three colts who have the breeding to go longer with running styles that should play well here.

3 - Napoleonic War, 11 – Emmanuel, and 12 - Limited Liability were the top three finishers in the Pinnine Ridge Stakes in early June.

Emmanuel is a front runner and was dragging the others along at a pedestrian pace but forestalled any chance for deep closers to win.

But Limited Liability, who ran in the back, was able to muster a closing kick despite the pace, making up 9 lengths to lose by one and a half.  

7 - Sy Dog and 9 - Tiz the Bomb also have some of the factors above and could impact the outcome and have to be considered in the exotics.  

Handigambling $100

$1 Trifecta - 10, 13 with 10, 13, 3, 11, 12 with 10, 13, 3, 11, 12, 7, 9   = $40

 $2 Exacta - 10, 13 with 3, 11, 12, 7, 9,  = $20

 $1 Exacta - 3, 11, 12, 7, 9 with 10, 13  = $10

 $20 Win 13

 $10 Win 10