This Saturday, Thorofan travels north of the border to
Toronto, Ontario Canada for the 24th running of the Woodbine Mile, a
Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ race for
three-year-olds and up contested
over the beautiful and spacious world-renowned E.P. Taylor turf course with a
purse of $1 million attached. The winner receives an automatic berth into the
B.C. Turf Mile on November 7 at Keeneland.
2019 Preakness winner War of Will headlines the 8-horse
field and is one of a trio of horses to be saddled by Canadian Hall of Famer,
Mark Casse, who is the current leader atop the Woodbine trainer standings.
Casse isn’t the only Woodbine trainer eyeing this Grade 1
prize. Three of his fellow horsemen are seeking the top spot with some talented
runners of their own. All total, seven of the eight horses in this one-mile
event hail from conditioners with stables on the Woodbine backside.
The only non-local trainer among the group is, Chad
Brown, who is no stranger to winning major turf races. Brown was awarded the
Eclipse award for outstanding trainer in the United States from 2016-2019.
Roger Attfield, the 80-yr old Hall of Famer trainer in
both Canada and the United States, has the lightly raced, Shirl’s Speight,
unbeaten in two starts. The 3-year old colt was slated to run in the Kentucky
Derby two weeks ago, but developed a minor cough and had to be withdrawn from
consideration.
The 2019 Canadian Horse-of-the-Year, Starship Jubilee, a
winner of 4 of 5 starts this season, goes out for conditioner Kevin Attard,
while Barbara Minshall, a Sovereign Award-winning trainer, enters the pair of
Admiralty Pier and Armistice Day. Minshall became the first woman to train the winner of a Canadian
Triple Crown race when her colt Kiridashi won the 1995 Prince of Wales Stakes
at Fort Erie.
Approximate post time is 5:39 ET
Let’s have a brief look at the field from the rail out.
PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML
1 - March to
the Arch – Patrick Husbands/Mark Casse - 5-2 – Took the one-mile King
Edward Stakes (G2) last month at this venue, defeating Admiralty Pier who
opposes him again. The victory marked the gelding’s seventh win in 23 career
starts, six of them coming via the lawn. Launched his season with a narrow
score in a Florida state-bred event, before recording back-to-back Grade 3
third place finishes. He’s 2 for 2 over the Woodbine course, and his last race
was a dandy of an effort.
2 - Armistice
Day – David Moran/Barbara Minshall – 20-1 – Two starts back, this gelding
found the winners circle for the first time in over a year when taking an ‘off
the turf’ allowance optional claimer. He had a relatively easy trip that day
pressing the pace and taking over when the leader packed it in at the
three-quarter mark. His highest level of accomplishment is a listed stakes
victory, so this first try at the Grade 1 level is an extremely tough test.
3 - Shirl’s Speight – Kazushi Kimura/Roger Attfield – 8-1 - Was a brilliant
debut winner by eight lengths over this turf course on July 4, then followed
suit with a 2 ¾ length victory in that venue’s Marine Stakes (G3) three weeks
later. Was being considered for next month’s Preakness, but connections decided
to keep their promising star home. He takes a big step up in class here and
faces older runners, but the sheer talent he’s displayed thus far will keep him
in the hunt throughout.
4 - Starship
Jubilee – Justin Stein/Kevin Attard – 4-1 – Her 37 career starts are the
most in the field. She was claimed for 16k back in 2017 and has since won 15
races. Suffered her first defeat of the year last out in the Diana (G1) at the
Spa. Difficult task taking on males in this spot, but the seven-year old mare
is a Grade 1 winner and has won twice over this turf course.
5 - Olympic
Runner – Daisuke Fukumoto/Mark Casse – 15-1 – Has been blanked in four
starts this year, but in a pair of runner-up finishes in Grade 3 events in his
last two efforts, he beaten a neck and one-length behind Pink Lloyd, two-time
Champion Older Male Horse. His three lifetime wins all came last year, including
his only turf score when breaking maiden ranks in his second start. Tough to
recommend.
6 - Admiralty
Pier – Steven Bahen/Barbara Minshall – 10-1 - Last month in the King Edward
(G2), he led until the sixteenth pole, but couldn’t fend March to the Arch.
Prior to that, he gave up the lead late going seven panels over the soft going,
losing by a half-length. Held it together and sprung a 21-1 upset in his
seasonal debut at Tampa Bay. Faded to seventh in this event last year, after
pressing the pace. He will be part of the early pace again here and could hang around
for a piece at the end.
7 - Value Proposition – Luis Contreras/Chad Brown – 6-1 - British-bred
runner invades from the States for top connections. Has won three of five starts, but has yet
to win at the graded level. Lightly-raced horse has been idled since a
third-place showing in the Poker (G3), but has worked extremely well in the
mornings at Saratoga getting ready for his return.
8 - War of Will – Rafael Hernandez/Mark Casse - 2-1 – Returns to Woodbine
where he began his career with a pair of top three finishes. After his seasonal
debut this year, where he finished sixth in the Shoemaker Mile (G1), the
four-year old stepped it up in the Maker’s Mark (G1) last race. He secured good
stalking position from the outside post and kicked home down the lane to get up
in time to win by a nose. Expect him to kept a good trip here from this outside
post
Analysis:
Along with the presence of the speedy Admiralty Pier, there
is War of Will and Shirl’s Speight, both who possess early foot,
so a spirited pace is likely to develop, and that should set the stage up nicely
for an off-pace runner.
For me, that horse is March to the Arch. He owns the fastest
Bris late-pace rating and earned that number in a Grade 2 event. Usually late
pace, plus class often conquers in turf races.
Wager:
March to the Arch to win.
In exactas, I will use Admiralty
Pier, Starship Jubilee and Value
Proposition. underneath
my top choice.
Good luck,
and as always, enjoy the race!!
