Tacitus vulnerable favorite in Jockey
Club Gold Cup
By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap
The 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), a prestigious race in it’s
right, yet has been regulated to a mere qualifying race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic
(G1).
The 1 1/4-mile event has a long, storied history dating back
to 1919. The great Kelso won the Jockey
Club Gold Cup five years straight. Other notable names include Man O’War, War
Admiral, Whirlaway, Citation, Nashua, Damascus, Buckpasser, and in more recent
years, Curlin (2007 – 2008) and Tonalist (2014 – 2015).
This year’s contest attracted just five contenders,
including Tacitus, who hopes to improve off of last
year’s third-place finish. 3-year-olds Happy
Saver and Mystic Guide take on their elders.
#4 TACITUS (1-1)
Many think this is Tacitus race to
lose. While he’s placed in all five starts at 1 1/4-miles, he’s won only once.
That was a spectacular 8 3/4-length romp in the Suburban (G2) in July. Tacitus’
main weakness is his inconsistency. He was right there in the Woodward Handicap
(G2) but refused to go by the pacesetter. He’s entirely capable when it’s his
day, but we never know when that day is.
#1 HAPPY SAVER (2-1)
The lightly raced 3-year-old has
never been challenged in three starts. The late bloomer made his debut in June.
He’s giving away experience and will get a class test, but the Todd Pletcher
trainee should be up to it. Happy Saver is the first blacktype earner out of a
stakes-placed sprinter. His second dam is a half-sister to A.P. Indy, Summer
Squall, and other classy runners. Happy Saver is inbred to the Rene de Course
(Superior mare) Lassie Dear. She is his fourth dam, and also the dam of Super
Saver’s damsire, A.P. Indy.
#5 MYSTIC GUIDE (4-1)
Mystic Guide is the other
3-year-old who could have a say in the Jockey Club Gold Cup outcome. He’s
fresh off a win in the Jim Dandy. He earned a 101 late-pace Brisnet figure,
which is the highest in the race.
#2 PRIORITIZE (4-1)
After a steady diet of optional
claiming races, Prioritize dipped a hoof into the graded stakes pond in the
Woodward Handicap (G2). The James Bond trainee was stuck four-wide early; then
Eric Cancel dropped the colt nine lengths off the lead. They made up ground
around the turn and were gaining on a tired Tacitus. Prioritize had to settle for third, just 1 1/4-lengths
off of second place Tacitus. Luis Saez takes over the reins, and he may
ensure a closer trip for Prioritize.
#3 NAME CHANGER (20-1)
Name Changer is the Jockey
Club Gold Cup “why?” horse. The 7-year-old is consistent and has hit the board
in 16 of 21 starts. The last time he stood in the winner’s circle was in 2018,
and he’s been losing in lesser company.
Analysis
In two of the last three times that the Jockey Club Gold Cup
field contained six or fewer horses, the pacesetter dominated. Good news for
Happy Saver, the confirmed front runner. Tacitus should
take up his usual pressing position while the rest sort themselves out behind. Tacitus
knows he can win, but he has to convince the other horses.
#1 HAPPY SAVER (2-1)
#4 TACITUS (1-1)
#5 MYSTIC GUIDE (4-1)
