Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)

Tacitus vulnerable favorite in Jockey Club Gold Cup

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

 

The 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), a prestigious race in it’s right, yet has been regulated to a mere qualifying race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

The 1 1/4-mile event has a long, storied history dating back to 1919.  The great Kelso won the Jockey Club Gold Cup five years straight. Other notable names include Man O’War, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Citation, Nashua, Damascus, Buckpasser, and in more recent years, Curlin (2007 – 2008) and Tonalist (2014 – 2015).

This year’s contest attracted just five contenders, including Tacitus, who hopes to improve off of last year’s third-place finish.  3-year-olds Happy Saver and Mystic Guide take on their elders.

 

 #4 TACITUS (1-1)

Many think this is Tacitus race to lose. While he’s placed in all five starts at 1 1/4-miles, he’s won only once. That was a spectacular 8 3/4-length romp in the Suburban (G2) in July. Tacitus’ main weakness is his inconsistency. He was right there in the Woodward Handicap (G2) but refused to go by the pacesetter. He’s entirely capable when it’s his day, but we never know when that day is.

 

#1 HAPPY SAVER (2-1)

The lightly raced 3-year-old has never been challenged in three starts. The late bloomer made his debut in June. He’s giving away experience and will get a class test, but the Todd Pletcher trainee should be up to it. Happy Saver is the first blacktype earner out of a stakes-placed sprinter. His second dam is a half-sister to A.P. Indy, Summer Squall, and other classy runners. Happy Saver is inbred to the Rene de Course (Superior mare) Lassie Dear. She is his fourth dam, and also the dam of Super Saver’s damsire, A.P. Indy.  

 

#5 MYSTIC GUIDE (4-1)

Mystic Guide is the other 3-year-old who could have a say in the Jockey Club Gold Cup outcome. He’s fresh off a win in the Jim Dandy. He earned a 101 late-pace Brisnet figure, which is the highest in the race.

 

#2 PRIORITIZE (4-1)

After a steady diet of optional claiming races, Prioritize dipped a hoof into the graded stakes pond in the Woodward Handicap (G2). The James Bond trainee was stuck four-wide early; then Eric Cancel dropped the colt nine lengths off the lead. They made up ground around the turn and were gaining on a tired Tacitus.  Prioritize had to settle for third, just 1 1/4-lengths off of second place Tacitus. Luis Saez takes over the reins, and he may ensure a closer trip for Prioritize.

 

#3 NAME CHANGER (20-1)

Name Changer is the Jockey Club Gold Cup “why?” horse. The 7-year-old is consistent and has hit the board in 16 of 21 starts. The last time he stood in the winner’s circle was in 2018, and he’s been losing in lesser company.

 

Analysis

In two of the last three times that the Jockey Club Gold Cup field contained six or fewer horses, the pacesetter dominated. Good news for Happy Saver, the confirmed front runner. Tacitus should take up his usual pressing position while the rest sort themselves out behind. Tacitus knows he can win, but he has to convince the other horses.

 

#1 HAPPY SAVER (2-1)

#4 TACITUS (1-1)

#5 MYSTIC GUIDE (4-1)