Handicapper's Corner: Forego Stakes (G1)

How to bet the Forgo (G1) Stakes

By: John Caro, S. Fl ThoroFan member

 

Looks like we may see some rain Saturday afternoon for this one. 

The track was sloppy and off the turf Thursday but didn’t stop the game but we saw a lot of scratches. Early speed pretty much ruled the day.

#1 Everfast – Sisterson/Santana – Recent winner here at the distance against lessor company. He can show up in second at high odds and make for big payouts.

#2 Whitmore – Moquett/Saez – After a great campaign at Oaklawn earlier he came to Saratoga in late July to place in the Vanderbilt beating out Mind Control and Firenze Fire going shorter. Always a contender and can go wet or dry. Gets an aggressive jockey who has been on fire lately.

#3 Lexitonian – Sisterson/Lezcano – Came second after a layoff in the Bing Crosby last out. He is a globetrotter. Never been on an off track but he’s a Spreightstown colt and should be able to go well. Could be a price horse.

#4 Funny Guy – Terranova/Rosario – Rosario stays with this one after winning the last two on him in good time. A lead or tracker with winning ways in off going. I like him and hope the odds stay up.

#5 True Timber – Sisterson/Carmouche – Sisterson’s third entry. This is a new barn for TT. His last out was lackluster but recent training at Keeneland is super. Hard to know if he’s coming back into form.

#6 Complexity – Brown/Ortiz JL – One of two entries for Brown who is at the top of the trainers list here. His jockey (and jockey’s brother) is at the top of this very tough colony of jockeys. Anything sent out by Brown is dangerous. Only drawback for the colt is he’s never gone in the wet but again his breeding suggests he will do fine.

#7 Win Win Win – Trombetta/Castellano – He’s coming off a break after losing to the one above at Belmont in July. This will be his third outing this year after an 11 month break. Workouts look good with a bullet two back. I believe he is coming into form and at a price. Castellano up.

#8 Firenze Fire – Breen/Alvarado – He is a high speed animal and I like him stretching out another furlong with his buddies Whitmore and Mind Control. I think he goes better at 7. If it’s track fast for some reason, he goes up my list. If it’s wet, he has his work cut out for him.

#9 Majestic Dunhill – Weaver/Franco – I’m not sure why he’s running on this surface as his record shows a horse who makes his money on the turf and only won once on the dirt, albeit on a wet track.

#10 Mind Control – Sacco/Velazquez - Johnny V has been up for most of this colt’s career and knows him well. He seems to relish the distance and is four for seven lifetime and loves Saratoga. Hard not to like him.

Okay almost done.

#11 Fortin Hill – Brown/Ortiz Jr – Brown is pretty slick picking up the two top riders of the meet for this race, Isn’t he? So this lightly raced winner, winner, winner and a second with Irad Ortiz, Jr. up for all the wins, has me grinning at 6-1. Never been in a stakes race, out of the Brown barn with Ortiz I Jr. up, made a 7 furlong run at Belmont last out one fifth off the 18 year old track record time, and has won in the slop; this is my kinda horse, err colt.

 

$100 Handigambling Menu *primary bets for any amount you’d like

$20 to Win and $30 to Place #11 — $50*

$1 Trifecta #11 with 2, 4, 6, 7, with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10 — $28

$1 Exacta #11 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10 — $8*

$1 Exacta #11 with 1, 3, 7, 10 — $4*

$2 Exacta All with 11 — $20

Enjoy the race and be careful out there while we wear our masks and enjoy company at a distance. Take care of each other.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Fourstardave Handicap (G1)

Girls take on the Boys in Fourstardave

By:  The Turk

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, sharing handicapping and bet construction advice since 2008.  

I moved to Saratoga, Jumel Place, in April of 1986 and lived there until late November.  I did all the requisite things that a Navy Petty Officer should do,  including dating a Skiddy Kiddy, hanging out at The Metro and becoming a fixture at the race track.  What I did not get the pleasure of doing was see Fourstardave (pictured above with photo credit: Adam Coglianese) run in person, as he burst onto the scene a year later in 1987.  The Sultan of Saratoga is gone but not forgotten, but it's horses like this that catch the eyes and hearts of race fans that are needed if this sport is ever going to grow again.  I'm not talking about handle, which is nice and needed, I'm talking about culturally relevancy.

I grew up when sports like Boxing and Horse Racing were still relevant.  The generation that fought World War 2 was approaching retirement, enjoying the sports that they and their fathers grew up with, but funny things happen along the cultural road.  Gambling on Football now dwarfs everything.  Twitter and Social Media platforms offer quick takes which has replaced reading and deeper analysis.  I'm not trying to be the old guy shouting from the window for a return to the past, but sometimes the old ways are best. 

 If you are reading this blog for the first time, try reading a book like Dick Mitchell's Common Sense Betting or Brad Free's Handicapping 101: A Horse Racing Primer. Join The Thorofan and find community.   Immersing yourself in something that takes time and effort can be a rewarding experience.  If anyone reading this ever wants help learning how to handicap, place a bet, or just feel comfortable at a race track, contact me.  I'll do my best to help you and I promise I'm not a creeper! 

It's such a lost year on many levels. I was so engaged at the beginning of the year with handicapping and this blog but the quarantine and life in general just took its toll.  My only real objective now is to stay fresh, watch September and early October racing carefully, and prepare for Breeders' Cup Weekend. 

I'm all about turf racing and I prefer the cagey 5-7 year old's the best, and while I prefer a bit more of a route of grass, the inner turf, 1 mile, Grade 1 Fourstardave gives me the opportunity at a nine horse field and a lot of natural class. 

 Lets get after this.  

27 June 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf.  Just a Game Grade 1.  Uni (GB)

 4 July 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf. Poker Grade 3.  Got Stormy, Valid Point

 

 

27 June 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf.  Just a Game Grade 1.  Uni (GB)

20 June 2020: Churchill Downs. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf. Wise Dan Grade 2. Casa Creed, Emmaus (Ire)

26 July 2020: Saratoga. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Inner Turf.  The Bernard Baruch Grade 2. Halladay. 

8 August 2020: Saratoga. 5 1/2 F Firm Turf.  Troy Grade 3. Chewing Gum. 

  That is the latest on every horse in the field.  What to make of it or just noise?  We don't have a single last race winner entering the gate.  That is highly unusual, but the ebb and flow of the race season is so out of whack right now it's understandable. So takeaways:

•  Raging Bull (Fr) was out kicked in a late bid.  Capable of a 1:32 Mile.
• Casa Creed ran a 1:33.72 in Hall of Fame G2 on this course as a three year old last year.  Onbly 2 starts since for Mott's runner. Mostly slow efforts.
• Emmaus (Ire) trainer Murphy 0-10 Graded Stakes past calendar year.  Never fast but seems in decline.
• Of the two Mares, Got Stormy's form has been off in 2020.  Won this last year at 5-1. 
• Halladay is a beautiful Grey/Roan who didn't have another gear when challenged last out. Hard to believe Pletcher Graded Stakes 9% in 187 attempts over past year.  
• One of four (three too many) Chad Brown's, Uni (GB) is classy and the best horse in this field as a Mare. Brown is 29% off 31-60 day layoffs and a staggering 25% Graded Stake Winner in 271 attempts. 
• Valid Point is a Scat Daddy Grade 1 winner in 6th start.  Has had bad trips.  Arlington's turf is not apples and apples with Saratoga, but 1:35.5 as 3 YO in Grade 1 Secretariat. 
• Without Parole (GB) is still winless in North America under Brown and winless since Ascot in 2018.  Classy.  Need more. 
• Chewing Gum is Mott's second in the gate, off a quick turnaround 2 weeks ago, stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs.  Crap Shoot.  

When a field is like this, evolving current form, overall good quality, I tend to trust my base handicap and let the tote board give me insight into the opportunity cost of the bet.  

 

I'm not sure I see value in betting this race until I see where the tote board ranks Raging Bull (Fr) the morning line favorite, how Without Parole and Uni (GB) match up on tote, and where a dark horse may emerge on a value line, such as Hallady or Got Stormy OVER Uni (GB), Without Parole (GB) and Raging Bull (Fr).  That would be the sort of $2 Exacta ($12 total) that I could get behind.  

Whatever you do, make your betting capital count and have fun with it!

Turk Out. 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Alabama Stakes (G1)

 Diving Into the Alabama Stakes Selections

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The $500,000 Alabama Stakes is one of the few times 3-year-old fillies get the opportunity to run 1 1/4-miles on dirt.   

The Saratoga mainstay will be contested for the 140^th time on Saturday, and the Grade 1 event is a “win, and you’re in” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.  The Alabama will be shown live on NBC.

 

This year seven fillies will enter the starting gate. Besides class and current form, pedigree is a critical factor in determining who will handle the distance.

 

 

 

#5 SWISS SKYDIVER (1-1)

Swiss Skydiver toyed with fillies in three graded stakes before taking on colts in the Blue Grass (G2). She was no match for Art Collector, yet finished 4 1/2-lengths in front of the rest of the field, proving that nine furlongs is within her scope, although she got her final furlong in 13:38. The Ken McPeek trainee is a pacesetter and may have company upfront.  

The chink in Swiss Skydiver’s armor is that she’s highly suspect at ten furlongs. Her young sire, Daredevil, is a precocious sprinter/miler who earned Grade 1 status with a 2 1/2-length victory in the seven-furlong Champagne Stakes. He was unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and finished fourth as a tired favorite in the 2015 Travers Stakes. His distaff line includes graded winners from sprinters, Forego hero (G1) Here Comes Ben, to Don Handicap(G1) winner Albertus Maximus, who is Daredevils’ half-brother.  

Swiss Skydiver’s damsire Johannesburg is the damsire of 15 graded/listed winners in the U.S and Canada. Only 1 (Collected) is a winner at ten furlongs.

 

#3 CRYSTAL BALL (9-2)

Crystal Ball could be Swiss Skydiver’s main threat. The Bob Baffert trainee had a pacesetting rail trip in the nine-furlong CCA Oaks (G1) and was nagged the entire way by Paris Lights. The pair battled around the turn and down the stretch, and the more experienced Paris Lights won the head-bob. Crystal Ball was facing winners for the first time in the race and ran a winning race.

Crystal Ball is by Malibu Moon out of an unraced daughter of Giant’s Causeway, so she should handle ten furlongs. Her distaff line includes Ballerina (G1) winner Dubai Escapade, Ashland (G1) heroine Madcap Escapade, and that one’s daughter, Darley Debutante (G1) winner Mi Sueno.   

 

#2 SPICE IS NICE (3-1)

Spice is Nice placed second to Tonalist’s Shape in the Davona Dale (G2) earlier this year, and was no match next out for Swiss Skydiver in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), finishing ten lengths behind her, although in Spice is Nice’s defense, she had a wide trip. In her first start off a layoff, the Todd Pletcher trainee beat optional claimers.  Despite being by Curlin out of a daughter of Bernardini, I don’t think Spice is Nice is up to the task, despite running big numbers in her last.

 

#1 ENVOUTANTE (8-1)

Envoutante has outclassed maidens and allowance level competition. She finished a distant third behind Speech in the Ashland, her first foray against Grade 1 company. Envoutante followed the pacesetter in a cushy rail trip, and had every opportunity; she just wasn’t fast enough. Envoutante has tactical speed, so with the right trip, perhaps she can stick around for a lower exotics award. Note that Jose Ortiz is seeking his fourth straight Alabama win.

By Uncle Mo out of a Bluegrass Cat mare, Envoutante carries legendary Claiborne bloodlines; Forty Niner is a full brother to Envoutante’s third dam, Abrade. That being said, Envoutante currently isn’t at the same level as other Alabama entrants, and ten furlongs could be beyond her scope.

 

#4 BONNY SOUTH (8-1)

After winning two straight stakes, Bonny South never got out of fourth place in the Ashland, finishing a dull two lengths behind third-place finisher Envoutante. It was her first start off a four-month layoff. A closer, Bonny South should get a good pace to close into in the Alabama.  I don’t care for her pedigree for getting the distance, but she could pass tired rivals for a piece.

Bonny South is by the wonderful filly sire, Munnings. His offspring are distance challenged, and from 35 graded/listed winners, only one, I’m a Chatterbox, has won at ten panels. She captured the 2016 Delaware Handicap in a glacial 2:02.64 but was second in that year’s Alabama. Bonny South’s distaff line offers hope of stamina; Her damsire is Tapit, and her female family includes several turf routers, including multiple graded winner Starformer.

 

#6 HARVEY’S LIL GOIL (10-1)

Harvey’s Lil Goil is the proud owner of three wins in five starts. She recently captured the nine-furlong Regret (G3) by a head over Churchill’s turf course, after sitting closer to the pace than usual. The last time Bill Mott did the turf-to-dirt switch,  the pretty gray filly responded with a six-length victory.

By American Pharoah out of a Tapit half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner, I’ll Have Another, Harvey’s Lil Goil is bred to run all day.

 

#7 FIRE CORAL (30-1)

Fire Coral is the “why” horse of the Alabama. She’s been beaten a combined 42 lengths in her last three starts, two Grade 3 races, and an optional claimer. Fire Coral has a lovely pedigree, by Curlin out of a daughter of A.P. Indy. Her half-sister Champagne Problems is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1 placed, and the family includes Grade 1 winners Southern Image and Turbo Compressor. Perhaps Fire Coral will get it together as a 4-year-old.  

 

Race Keys

In the last ten years, only four favorites won.

Winning style is varied; closers and pressers have won three times each, while pacesetters and mid-pack runners have won twice.

 

Analysis

I’m going against Swiss Skydiver. Yeah, she’s one of the most brilliant fillies in her crop, and yeah, she was second in a field of so-so colts. She could be pushed or tested on the lead, and don’t think ten furlongs is her game. At even money, I’ll let her prove me wrong.

Crystal Ball could take it to Swiss Skydiver early. She drew inside the favorite and could get another rail trip. Crystal Ball is battle-tested and won’t quit in a battle. The question is – how much did the CCA Oaks take out of her?

Harvey’s Lil Goil at 10-1 has caught my eye. She’s a winner at nine furlongs and has the pedigree for ten. She has tactical speed. Mott sent out Elate, Royal Delta, and Sweet Symphony to victory in the Alabama. Harvey’s Lil Goil might not be at their level yet, but remember, Royal Delta wasn’t the favorite going into the Alabama and look at what she did.

Envoutante has a good/bad race cycle going on, and if it continues, she’s due for a “good” race.

 

#6 HARVEY'S LIL GOIL (10-1)

#3 CRYSTAL BALL (9-2)

#5 SWISS SKYDIVER (1-1)

#1 ENVOUTANTE (8-1)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Travers Stakes (G1)

ThoroFan Handicappers divided on Travers' Winner

The 2020 Travers Stakes attracted eight 3-year-old colts and geldings who will travel 1 1/4-miles over Saratoga’s main track.

Saratoga is known as the graveyard of favorites. This particularly holds true for the Travers Stakes (G1).  The last time the favorite won the “Midsummer Derby” was in 2011, although Alpha, the 2012 favorite, dead-heated with a 33-1 longshot.

 

Speaking of longshots, the Travers can be a tough race to handicap, but the returns are huge, with double-digit payouts on the winner.

Post time for the Travers Stakes is set for 6:15 p.m. ET Saturday. The main track should be fast, although the forecast calls for 40% rain.

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers offer their choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs.

Good Luck to everyone!

 

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Tiz the Law	Caracaro	Uncle Chuck	First Line
John Caro	Tiz the Law	Max Player	Uncle Chuck	Shivaree
Nick Costa	Max Player	Tiz the Law	Uncle Chuck	South Bend
Michael Mills	Max Player	Tiz the Law	Country Grammer	South Bend
Nicolle Neulist	Tiz the Law	Max Player	Uncle Chuck	South Bend

 

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