Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Holy Bull Stakes (G2)

Laying down the law in the Holy Bull

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The path to the 2020 Kentucky Derby via Florida starts Saturday in the Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park.  Seven 3-year-old colts led by Tiz the Law will contest 1 1/16-miles. The top four finishers will receive Derby qualifying points on a 10-4-2-1 scale.  Thunderstorms are expected, so the track may be wet.

Let's review the field.

 

The Favorite

TIZ THE LAW is obvious class of the field. He’s had his troubles in every start. He was able to overcome them in two starts but was left with too much to do in the Kentucky Jockey Club, which was run over a muddy track. I don’t think the mud was so much the issue as the poor trip. If Tiz the Law gets a clear trip and can stay closer to the pace than in previous starts, the Barkley Tagg trainee should win this.

Spoiler Alert

TOLEDO was wide the entire way in traffic in his last start, which was against Ete Indien. This time, Toledo gets a coveted rail post and can save ground. His speed figures are improving, and he should be fit second off the layoff.

ETE INDIEN took advantage of post 1 and a speed favoring track to score by 2 1/2-lengths over Toledo. However, the Patrick Biancone trainee drifted like a floundering boat down the stretch. Since it was Ete Indien’s first start off the layoff, I expect that he will be sharper for the Holy Bull.

Upset Chance

Multi-talented on turf and dirt, UNCORK THE BOTTLE was a sneaky $16,000 claim from the Ramseys. Joseph Saffie, Jr. is a 31% trainer and hot right now. Not thrilled that Uncork the Bottle’s Brisnet speed figures have declined in each start, but his last two works were sharp, and he out-performed his stablemate. Former Gulfstream claimer rags to riches stories are all the rage, so why not?  He has the right running style and could pull an upset.

Up Against It

The most experienced colt with nine starts, CLEAR DESTINATION gets another chance to prove his true destination is the turf/Polytrack. He’s by a Grade 1-winning turf router out of a hardy sprinter/miler, whose best work was over a wet track. If it’s muddy, maybe he’ll like that surface and grab a lower exotic spot.

RELENTLESS DANCER has a sprinter’s pedigree. He won his maiden in a dead heat with Silver State, who returned two starts later to run a fast-closing second in the LeComte. The Louisiana-bred Relentless Dancer demolished state-breds next out. Distance is a concern for this son of Munnings. His half-siblings didn’t win beyond 1 mile 70 yards. His dam missed by a nose at 1 1/16-miles over the lawn, but she too was best as a sprinter.

MAYBERRY DEPUTY improved to win his third start, a mile maiden race at Gulfstream. He beat a full field, but the ones who finished behind him are still finishing behind other horses, so the quality of the field is suspect, other than Gear Jockey, who proved he prefers the turf. Additionally, the Ken McPeek trainee timed his final furlong in an uninspiring 13.47. Mayberry Deputy was well-beaten by Lynns Map and Gold Street in previous starts. Another sign that this son of Mayberry Deputy isn’t fast enough to arrest the competition.

SELECTIONS

Tiz the Law is the clear class, couldn’t be working any better, and is the likely favorite. I like this horse. All that being said, this is his first start back, Post No. 5 and Tiz the Law’s mid-pack running style means Manny Franco will likely have to take the colt wide around the turn. Maybe  Tiz the Law is fit enough to overcome this disadvantage, but realize that this is one stepping stone to the ultimate goal of Kentucky.  Instead, I’m looking for Toledo to pull the upset from post one. 

#1 Toledo (7/2)

#3 Tiz The Law (3/5)

#4 Ete Indian (6/1)

#2 Uncork The Bottle (12/1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)

High Velocity hoping for R.B. Lewis Impact

By: Alex Susville

The connections between Bob Baffert and the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes this Saturday at Santa Anita go far beyond his 4-5 morning line favorite. Baffert will be looking to continue his current record of 7 wins in the Robert B. Lewis, including last year’s victor who is on his way to Saudi Arabia following last weekend’s grade 1 score in the Pegasus World Cup. Robert B. Lewis himself was a prominent Thoroughbred owner and had several horses that trained with Baffert, including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Dubai World Cup winner in Silver Charm. 

Fast forwarding from racing history to 2020, Baffert brings in a strong Kentucky Derby hopeful in Thousand Words, who comes off of an impressive victory in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Coming off of a splendid effort in the stretch at Los Alamitos to defeat the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up in Anneau D’or, he comes back to the Great Race Place looking strong. Although there is very high hopes for another son of Pioneerof The Nile in the hands of Baffert, there are several questions to be answered as well as derby points to be had.

Here's the field.

 

My Analysis:

Thousand Words, one of two Baffert runners in this field is the obvious choice and the wagering odds should reflect just that. With only a 6 horse field heading to the gate I am expecting to see Thousand Words at an extremely short price. Despite the fact that it has been an impressive start to the young career of this horse, there are still several questions that need to be answered. Personally, I do find it tough at times to take a horse off of just two starts at such a low price. Usually, in this case, there are many unknown factors that have the capability to shake up a race that on paper looks pretty cut and dry. 

The question marks for Thousand Words come from a win in the slop at Los Al and defeating only a 4 horse field in the process. Now with that being said, there are many great things to say about this horse and it is why I think if you want to take a swing and paint the picture of this race without him you need to check the other side of the shedrow. 

Baffert’s 2nd choice in the race, High Velocity, is a speed horse who got pushed in the slop at Los Alamitos and really help set up the pace for Thousand Words. In one start at Santa Anita, High Velocity was able to sit just off the pace and make his move to go by and break the maiden, one of two wins so far in three career starts. 

This horse is one that if able to either just sit off of another pacesetter, either Thousand Words or the Richard Mandella trainee Tizamagician, could set himself up for a shot at a bigger piece of the pie. Joel Rosario will be jumping aboard for the first time so hopefully Joel can put this horse in the best possible spot to have something left for a potential duel to the wire with his stablemate or a late closer. 

The other horse who caught my eye in this spot is in the process of coming off the grass. Encoder out of post 1 loses jockey Joel Rosario to High Velocity but has the hall of fame hands of Mike Smith to guide in his first event on the main track, following his first stakes win in the Eddie Logan back on opening weekend. 

By English Channel, Encoder is a horse that began strong on the turf with back to back wins but struggled when bumped up against higher class competition. Not sure if this is an attempt to chase after the derby trial or if following a win, they believe this horse could take to the dirt and be competitive with the bunch that are currently in the field. I think this horse is definitely interesting and one to watch because the talent has been there in the past and although the sire shows turf class, being out a Hard Spun mare has proved to have some dirt influence, just ask 2018 Haskell winner Good Magic.

My Bets

$50 win - 5 - High Velocity - $50

$10 Exacta Box - 1/5 - $20

$15 Straight Exacta - 1,5/2 - $30

Total: $100

Final Thoughts:

In this case, I believe there are a few shots that can be taken to make money in this smaller field. Thousand Words can be viewed as a tough horse to play against, however at the same time he will be a huge underlay and with a small sample size so far, I feel it is not set in stone that he jogs around the Santa Anita oval. High Velocity is a very capable horse that with enough left in the tank in the stretch has every capability to defeat his stablemate. Encoder will definitely need to make a big step up here to be at the same level as the Baffert trainees but if he takes to the dirt and gives effort like last time out should be able to be a part of the action. Despite the size of the field, this has the opportunity to become an action-packed race when turning for home, however, if it ends up a two-horse duel it could be for who gives Baffert triumph #8.

 

2020 Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1)

Longshot could prevail in Pegasus World Cup

By: Robert Marks, @theyreinthegate

Saturday at 5:34 pm Eastern time is the Grade 1 2020 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes presented by (who else) Runhappy. This race is for 4-year old’s and Up. The purse is $3,000,000. The distance is 1 1/8 miles on the dirt track. This is the premier race for the winter Gulfstream meet other than the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby held in the next few months. 

The race has been hurt by the late scratches of Omaha Beach and Spun to Run. Nevertheless, we expect the handle to be large and you can watch it on NBC starting at 4:30 pm.

Here is your field and who we like:

#3 Diamond Oops-Morning Line Odds 20-1:  Comes off a 7-furlong race on this track on December 21st winning the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector. He is 5-6 overall on this track. His workouts have also been sharp. He has the speed to stay with this group. Have to believe the 20-1 odds will come way down come post time. Anything above 4-1 will be great valve on this 5-year-old gelding. Jump on him and hope the odds stay high.

#7-War Story – Morning Line Odds 30-1: How can you not like this hard-knocking 8-year-old gelding. He is entered for the 3 time in the Pegasus.  Like Diamond Oops he comes off a win over the track, winning the Harlan Holiday Stakes back in December at 1 1/16th.  Now in the barn of rising star Elizabeth Dobles, what a story it will be if War Story can win this. His last 2 races show nice speed figures and we think he has enough in the tank and should be on all your exotic tickets. 

#11 Tenfold Morning Line Odds 30-1:  With the 2 late scratches we think a double-digit morning line odds takes the win as evidenced by our 3 picks listed here. Yes, he is an inconsistent horse, but he does step up about once a year as he did in the 2018 Jim Dandy at Saratoga and the 2019 Pimlico Special. Well guess what, it is now 2020. His stalking type style suits this race and he has a good post position to do just that. 

 

Overall, we expect a fast pace with Bodexpress and Tax going early setting up the race for our 3 picks above with Diamond Oops taking it followed by War Story and Tenfold closing late. With no Superstar entered, (horses such as Maximum Security) and with the late scratch, why can’t we see War Story or Tenfold in the money here? 

Our strategy will be keying on Diamond Oops to win and putting him on top of our Exactas and Trifectas.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Key Box: $10 for $40 total

3/7,11

Trifecta ($5 Box for $10 Total)

3/7,11/7,11

Win Bet-$50 — #3

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational

Pegasus World Cup Turf could be Magical

By: The Turk

  

Magic Wand (Ire) 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. Our blog, now in its thirteenth year, focuses primarily on turf handicapping of the handicap division. 

Today's post is written primarily for the The ThoroFan and the Handicapper's Corner.  The good people at The Thorofan have created the only nationwide fan- centric organization in the horse racing community.  God knows this sport needs a few things, like a sense of community and relevance and joining The Thorofan will allow you to find like minded people who enjoy your passions too!

Who doesn't like a good "whodunit", the classic murder mystery.  Handicapping is a lot like that.  You have all the usual suspects, you have backstories, competing motivations, strangers in a strange land, and drama. The Pegasus Turf offers all these things.  There is no real strong suspect, the race is held without race day medications being given (is it really so hard?), and you have a motley crew of veterans and up and comers. 

To me, turf racing epitomizes horse racing, a sentiment I know my fellow American's don't really embrace, but as the years go by for me, it's the sort of racing that offers good sized fields and lots and lots of intrigue, the proverbial "whodunit", or maybe more appropriately, who will do it.

I've found recent video on every horse in the field.  I think its important to look closely at the Race Charts in concert with videos.  It's very easy to brush through the PPs and see a horse hasn't won in three starts, but how many beaten lengths was he, what was the trip like, how impressive was the late turn of foot?  The paper tells quite a bit of the story but the video brings it color and sound.  

Breeders' Cup Turf G1:  2 November 2019;  1 1/2 Miles Firm SA  

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1: 5 Oct 2019; 1 1/2 Miles Firm BEL  

The Fort Lauderdale G2: 14 Dec 2019;  1 1/8 Miles Firm GP  

The Sea Biscuit Handicap G2: 30 Nov 2019;   1 1/16 Miles Good Turf  DMR  

The Hollywood Derby G1: 30 Nov 2019; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf  DMR  

Hong Kong Cup G1; 8 Dec 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Good Turf' Sha Tin (HK)  

Breeders' Cup Mile G1; 2 Nov 2019; 1 Mile Firm Turf  SA

Arlington Million G1; 10 Aug 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf   AP


It appears the weather will be dry.  You can find the scratches and changes along with track conditions here.  I'm handicapping expecting firm turf.


The mare, Magic Wand (Ire) just jumps off the paper in terms of pure class and ability. Look at the Hong Kong Cup video above and just watch her explosion in the last 1/8 of a mile as she comes out of traffic and surges. $4.1 MM in earnings.  Only 3 wins in 22 turf starts.  Only 1 win in 10 starts at this distance.  Trainer Aiden O'Brien ouch: 0 of 24 starters last rolling year in Graded Stakes NA, 0 of 28 Turf Starters.  With the bloodstock he has access to, that is staggering.  I know its a challenging trip but wow.

I have a group of three after the Mare.  Arklow is first back after Breeders' Cup, a 61-180 day layoff that trainer Cox does well with, 24% winners on 87 tries. 5 of 7 in the money in 2019 as a 5 YO but only one 1 win,  a game Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at 1 1/2 mile.  First GP start.  12 of 24 lifetime starts ended in Win-Place.  Without Parole (GB) is first back off the Breeders' Cup Mile. The distance seems to be the biggest question for him although his breeding implies he should handle it, he is one of only two here with a Tomlinson Number >400. Chad Brown Trainee put up bullet 5f last week.  No Wins in 3 starts in 2019.  Mo Forza is a wildcard.  4 YO son of Uncle Mo should be faster than he's shown.  Peter Miller's trainee has won four straight.  7 of 9 in the money over turf and the only other +400 Tomlinson Distance Rated Number in the field.

My exotic/show horse group is four deep and of that two I suspect are better than the other two.  Sacred Life (Fr) is 11 of 13 Win-Place finishes lifetime.  Chad Brown trainee.  Game and gritty.  Loses class battle and he's never seen a field like he will today.  Late speed and effort could propel and long tote board odds make me consider him in back half of exacta.  7 YO Zulu Alpha first back from Breeders' Cup Turf.  5 straight 100+ Beyers.  10 of 18 in the money over past two years.  16 of 26 in the money over grass.  Won at this distance here in March 2019.  What you see is what you get.  The same can be said for 7 YO Sadler's Joy.  Trainer Albertrani skipped the Breeders' Cup and found a win in the G3 Red Smith at AQA in late November and now first time back.  18 of 26 in the money lifetime.  Channel Cat is Todd Pletcher's lone entry.  Trainer Pletcher was in a downturn last year around this time winning "only" about 22% of the time.  That has slipped to 10% Graded Stakes wins in 129 starts over the rolling year.  This 5 YO loses class but has enough intangibles to be considered in tickets.

For better or worse I'm tossing everyone else because you can't cover them all. I could have made a case for Next Shares in the exotic group, and Henley's Joy will get better but the water is deep here.

So what to do with it?  While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2.  Even then, it should still pay about 2/3's the cost of the bet, sop gambling that the order and the value pops favorable may be the uncomplicated play.

Alternatively, I'm inclined to $1 exacta 12-2-3-10 OVER 12-2-3-10-11-1-4-5 for $28.

Final Alternative, I'll be watching Arklow closely.  If he's 4-5 to 1 I may single and bet a few horses under him in exacta.  Lots of options.  Arklow may represent the safest Win bet.  Cox is on top of his game and Brown's runners here aren't world beaters.

I'll be thinking about this right up to post when I get a look at the odds.  A win bet on Mo Forza at the right price isn't out of the question.

The Turk began his 2020 handicapping challenge, entitled 52 bets in 52 Weeks.  Through the first three weeks of 2020 the ROI sits at 40.6% with winnings of $227 on $162 dollars wagered.  It's a small sample size, plenty of time for the Ol' Turk to screw the pooch. 

Last week I took a shot on a race I knew I should have passed on, the Sunshine Millions Turf.  As you can see, my base handicap was dead on but this was the result the betting public overwhelming picked.  The straight trifecta I handicapped cold paid $3.65 on a $1 bet.  Ugh.  I bet an exacta hoping that someone other than Beautiful Lover would finish in Place. 

Close, but ultimately class prevailed.  I turned $10 into $4.60.  The stuff of legends.



 

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!