Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Queen's Plate

Canada's Triple Crown Quest Starts with Queen's Plate

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

The quest for Canada’s Triple Crown begins Saturday in Toronto, Ontario, with the 160th running of the $1 million Queen’s Plate, from Woodbine Racetrack.

Steeped in tradition, the Queen’s Plate is not only Canada’s most storied and prestigious thoroughbred race, it is also the oldest continuously run stakes race in North America, dating back to 1860.

Like their American counterpart, Canada’s trio of races are run at three different distances. However, there are a few dissimilarities. Our northerly neighbors will see out their Triple Crown over a period of seven weeks of summer, as opposed to five in the States during early springtime. Three different racing surfaces are utilized for the Canadian version and just two tracks are involved in the sequence. 

Following the Queen’s Plate, which will be contested at 1¼ miles on Woodbine’s synthetic-surface main track, the historic series will continue with the Prince of Wales Stakes, a 1 3/16-mile event to be run on conventional dirt at Fort Erie Racetrack on Tuesday, July 23rd. The finale is the 1 ½ mile Breeders’ Stakes over the sweeping, international style E.P. Taylor turf course back at Woodbine on August 17th.

A quartet of trainers, including previous Plate winners, Mark Casse and Josie Carroll, have entered two runners each in this 10-furlong contest. One notable name among trainers in Queen’s Plate history, Roger Attfield, is absent from this year’s lineup. The 79-year old legendary Hall of Fame conditioner has won this race eight times, tying him with Harry Giddings for the most Plate wins.

The most famous winner of the Queen’s Plate is Northern Dancer. The Canadian-bred colt won the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but his attempt of sweeping the American Triple Crown failed when finishing third in the Belmont. He returned to Canada and won the Queen’s Plate in the final start of his career.

12 horses are officially recognized as winning the Canadian Triple Crown, with Wando (2003) being the last one to accomplish the feat.

Post time is scheduled for 5:36 pm E.S.T. From the rail out, let’s take a look at the field of 14 sophomores.

PP – HORSE – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - DESERT RIDE -  Steven Bahen/Neil Howard – 8-1  In her first start on synthetic, this improving gal was an impressive winner of the Oaks, coming from last place and roaring down the Woodbine stretch to nab last year’s juvenile champion filly at the wire in a winning time that was much quicker than the Plate Trial run one race earlier. The girls have won the last two editions of the Plate and three out of the last seven years, and this ones five-time Plate winning owners struck twice before with fillies in this event.

2 - MOON SWINGS – Jesse Campbell/Mike DePaulo – 30-1  After 11 attempts, this gelding is still looking to break into the win column. He was stakes placed three times as a juvenile last season. Was one of a trio of maidens that contested the Plate Trial. He raced mid-pack until the far turn, before advancing to third by mid-stretch, but couldn’t punch it home and was passed late to end up fourth.

3 - KRACHENWAGON – Jeffrey Alderson/Angus Buntain – 50-1 As a two-year old, this gelding started four times in a six-week period last fall and produced positive results, winning once and finishing third twice. However, he hasn’t returned to the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden in his debut. He went a route of ground for the first time two starts back and last time out in the Plate Trial, he was closing with some interest when finishing fifth.

4 - PAY FOR PEACE – Rafael Hernandez/Rachel Halden – 15 -1 Longshot winner of the Plate Trial stalked a slow pace then rallied and pulled clear to score a 19-1 upset. The impressive win was his first in seven months, and a career best which puts him squarely in the mix for the big show. His progress is on the upswing and he’s getting good at the right time, however, he will need further advancement if he is to have any shot at taking all the marbles.

5 - ONE BAD BOY – Flavien Prat/Richard Baltas – 7-2   Speedy west coast invader makes his first venture away from his home-base, but tries synthetic again after testing the Golden Gate Fields Tapeta surface where he battled on the lead in the Alcatraz Stakes, before weakening and finishing second. California upstart was runner-up in his second lifetime start to Omaha Beach. After racing exclusively in blinkers, that equipment will now be removed.

6 - LUCAS N LORI - Kazushi Kimura/Kevin Attard – 50-1 Broke maiden ranks in his fourth and final race of his two-year campaign. As a sophomore, he’s been well beaten in two optional claiming races, but he’s also been a bit unlucky in each.

7 - FEDERAL LAW – Jamie Spencer/Mark Casse – 15 -1 Received his introduction to racing in England before heading to North America late last summer. He set a slow pace in the Plate Trial, opening a clear lead, but couldn’t hold and settled for second best. He also failed to last in the Wando Stakes. However, in between those races he did win the Queenston Stakes going shorter. Tested Avie’s Flatter in last year’s Coronation Futurity, but his game effort fell short. 

8 - HE’S A MACHO MAN – Patrick Husbands/Josie Carroll - 15 -1 Son of a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner has taken 2 of 3 starts on his resume and is unbeaten over the Woodbine Tapeta. He enters off nearly a six-week respite, but he’s worked three times since his allowance victory on May 20th. 

9 - SUITEDCONNECTED - Gary Boulanger/Robert Barnett – 50-1 Is a one-time winner from four starts, and did not finished better than seventh in his other three races. 

10 - SKYWIRE – Eurico Da Silva/Mark Casse – 4-1 Displayed a bit of versatility two starts back when winning the Wando after pressing the pace, then reverted back to his closing style of running in the slowly run Marine Stakes, where his wide stretch run over an inside-biased surface came up a length short. Trainer Casse, who won two-thirds of this year’s American Triple Crown, tries for back-to-back Plate wins and his third overall. DaSilva opted for this runner over the morning line favorite.

11 - TONE BROKE – Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen – 6-1 After a pair of uninspiring performances in Dubai, this American-based colt got himself back into Plate consideration with a solid runner-up showing in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard. The winner, King for a Day, subsequently knocked off Maximum Security in the Haskell at Monmouth. Gets his initial test on synthetic in this spot.

12 - JAMMIN STILL - Alan Garcia/Kevin Attard – 30-1  Maiden winner has struggled when pitted against stakes competition. Most recently, he failed to threaten in the Plate Trial, where he finished seventh. 

13 - RISING STAR – Justin Stein/Mike DePaulo – 30-1 Although this colt has been blanked in eight lifetime starts, his most recent run against stakes winners in the Plate Trial was inspiring. He saved ground the entire way behind a slow pace, then closed from last-place with a determined charge thru the stretch to finished third. Sire has produced two recent Queen’s Plate winners. 

14 - AVIE’S FLATTER – Javier Castellano/Josie Carroll – 5-2 With connections bypassing the Trial to aim for this contest, the winter-book favorite for the Plate has trained strongly off an eight-week layoff following a close sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill last start. Has won 4 of 6 lifetime starts and seeks to become the first Coronation Futurity-Queen’s Plate winner in 44 years. Is conditioned by a two-time Plate wining trainer. 

ANALYSIS: In my opinion, the four horses listed below are the main contenders here. A win by any of the others would be unexpected. 

AVIE’S FLATTER is consistent and has successfully handled an extended period between races. He’ll need an uninterrupted trip to get it done from his outside draw, but should benefit nicely from the class relief he gets in this spot. 

SKYWIRE is the fastest horse in the race having earned a 99 Bris Speed figure two back when winning the Wando Stakes over this surface. Has a versatile running style that allows him to adapt whatever pace situation calls for. 

ONE BAD BOY has a nice touch of early foot, removes the blinkers and could default into the pace setter role. He races beyond a mile for the first time, but in this field made-up of predominately stalkers and closers, he could lead this group a long way on an uncontested lead. 

DESERT RIDE won the important Woodbine Oaks in her first attempt over the synthetic surface. Her speed figure from that race improved dramatically, indicating the filly is rapidly improving. She’s good enough to win this, but needs pace help in order to get it done. 

WAGER: With $100 Thorofan dollars, I’ll bet $40 to win on AVIE’S FLATTER and play him in $10 exacta boxes with the other three ($60 total).

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 United Nations Stakes (G1)

Deja Vu All Over Again in the United Nations?

By: Alex Sausville, Off The Turf Podcast

In the field of 8 that are set to head down the shore’s greatest stretch in the Grade 1 United Nations this Saturday, a horse coming from post 1 will be looking to make it a welcome back party to the winner's circle. Bigger Picture, who took the 2017 rendition of this event for trainer Michael Maker looks to capture the title for the second time, despite finishing a late closing third in last year’s contest to front running Funtastic.

As an 8 year old, Bigger Picture will be taking his 4th shot at the United Nations. It has not been uncommon however in the past to see repeat winners of this prestigious contest. Since its first running in 1953, 8 different horses have experienced multiple triumphs in this race, not including 2002 winner With Anticipation, who was DQed the year prior. Most recently it was Chad Brown’s Big Blue Kitten who took the United Nations in 2013 and 2015. Other champions to do so include Presious Passion, English Channel and Richard Mandella’s Sandpit, who used a very similar move to Bigger Picture’s slide up the fence during his second consecutive victory in what was then the Caesar's International at Atlantic City.

Although it's been 23 years since Racing Across America brought us Sandpit’s second victory in this historic race, I see a grand opportunity for Bigger Picture to place himself among a high class group of multiple United Nations champions.

My Analysis:

This year’s rendition of the United Nations looks to be a very wide open affair. Most of the field is coming in with the hopes of turning around their recent form and stepping up in this grade 1 event.

Despite Bigger Picture racing at the age of 8 against younger competitors, I see this as a prime opportunity to capture a grade 1 win against a much less competitive field. Bigger Picture comes into this race off a win in the Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn and three starts back won his 3rd consecutive John B. Connally Turf Cup down at Sam Houston(which was trainer Mike Maker’s 6th consecutive in the race). Despite a slow pace set by uncontested leader Funtastic in last year’s race, Bigger Picture closed well and finished a good third while enduring some traffic trouble in the stretch. In 2017, he skimmed the rail against a much faster pace set by multiple grade 1 winners Itsinthepost and Beach Patrol to capture his first and only Grade 1 win and setting a track record in doing so. This horse has proven himself on the Monmouth surface, won at the distance and just captured a grade 2 event last time out. On top of that, he is the only horse in the field with a grade 1 win in his career.

One factor that could hinder Bigger Picture and many others in the field is the lack of speed that this group possesses. There are a slew of closers in the race and no obvious speed to rush out and set the early fractions that Beach Patrol and Itsinthepost set back in 2017 that aided the closers. This is a field that because of the lack of speed could see a lone horse benefit from an early uncontested lead and kick away like Funtastic did a year ago.

The horse that could fit the mold and be a nice price play in this spot is Naipaul Chatterpaul’s Catcho En Die(ARG). Catcho En Die was a bit overmatched in the Manhattan last time out, but it was also his first start since he ran in the Grade 1 Arlington Million back in August. In that race, he made a serious move towards the lead before being cut off in the stretch, finishing 4th but placed 3rd after a disqualification. This horse has shown the ability to rate off and close against much better competition and as well showed the ability to go to the lead and set an early pace in the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes at Arlington. He should be a price, but I will not be surprised if he gets brave on the lead and makes the closers come catch him.

Other horses that I would look to use in this race include Focus Group who is 2 for 3 at the distance and despite a disappointing effort in the Man O’ War last time out has shown talent in the past. Most recently for Focus Group was a victory in the Grade 2 Pan American, nosing out Melmich who comes back Saturday in the Singspiel at Woodbine.

As well, another one who could potentially take advantage of the lack of speed is Channel Cat, who despite not showing any speed last time out in the Grade 1 Manhattan has shown the ability to push towards the pace in starts prior. He was up close to the pace in the Fort Marcy at Belmont and sat just off in wins at Laurel and Kentucky Downs. Not saying this horse is a speed horse by any means, but against this field, he may just become one.

My Plays:

●     $10 Exacta Box: 1 with 2,4,5 = $60

●     $5 Exacta Box: 5 with 1,2,4 = $30

Total = $90

Final Thoughts:

If Bigger Picture is able to duplicate his effort from last year and no one gets an easy trip on the lead, he should be flying home in the stretch. As well, I do expect Catcho En Die to improve drastically off his last start and have a good chance at upsetting this field on Saturday. This is a horse who has shown some flashes of real talent and hopefully will put it all together on the Monmouth turf. This should be an extremely entertaining race to watch and could be a race with some good value as well.

Will it be “Deja vu all over again” for Bigger Picture? Only time will tell.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2)

Small but Elite Field in Fleur de Lis

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

Six fillies and mares will contest the 1 1/8-mile Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2), looking for a free ride to the 2019 Breeders' Cup Distaff in the first Challenge event of the series.  Previous Fleur de Lis heroines include champions Rachael Alexandra, Royal Delta, and Forever Unbridled.   

Thunderstorms are expected, and the track will likely be muddy.  

The Favorites

ELATE (8-5) is 3 for 4 at 1 1/8-miles, but the farther the better. She hit the board in a couple of 1 1/16-mile stakes at Oaklawn, and should appreciate stretching out. Bill Mott previously captured the Fleur de Lis with Royal Delta. Elate has a superior mud pedigree, and has hit the board in all 3 starts over a muddy/good track, including once at Churchill.

Making her 2^nd start off a layoff, BLUE PRIZE (ARG) (2-1) is hoping to make it back-to-back wins in the Fleur de Lis.  The daughter of Pure Prize needed the start in the  La Troienne (G1), and should offer a stronger challenge this time around. No worries about a muddy track. Blue Prize has hit the board in all 4 starts in the off going.

SHE'S A JULIE (2-1)  beat Blue Prize in the La Troienne and is looking for a hat trick after previously capturing the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn. She likes to press the pace, and with no confirmed pacesetter, could try to take them gate to wire. She’s never won beyond 1 1/6-miles, but did finish a distant 2^nd in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama. She’s a Julie has an average pedigree for mud, however, she was unplaced in her sole start over an off track.

Looking for the Upset

SKEPTIC (10-1) drew the ground-saving rail. That’s a good thing, as she’s 0-2 at the distance. She may vie for the lead with She’s a Julie, but has only won 2 of 5 starts at Churchill.  If she can slow the pace, perhaps she can hold on for a piece. Note that she won her maiden in the slop.

GO GOOGLE YOURSELF (10-1) is stretching out in distance and moving up in class, although she proved she belonged in graded company last time out in the Doubledogdare, closing to miss by just 3/4 length. Mud? No problem. She was 2^nd by a head in the Dogwood Stakes here over a sloppy track.

AUSPICIOUS BABE (15-1) does her best running at Churchill. She beat Go Google Yourself on this course last year, but has been bested twice by Skeptic and once by She’s a Julie. Auspicious Babe struggles against optional claimers and all starts in stakes have resulted in off the board finishes.

Selections

#3 Elate (8-5) has the best speed figures in the field. She routinely records high 90’s to triple digit speed figures. She’s also been off the board only once since 2017.

#5 Blue Prize (2-1) matches Elate in consistency, and has the benefit of a recent race.

#2 She’s a Julie (2-1)  likes to win, and while her speed figures are a little below the top pair, she’s won 4 of her last 6 starts and must be respected. She may get the jump on the top pair.

#4 Go Google Yourself (10-1) is always right there. Her only off the board placing in the last 2 years was a turf experiment gone wrong in the Regret Stakes.

Handigambling

With just 6 participants and the top 3 evenly paired, the Fleur de Lis Handicap isn’t a good betting proposition. A tepid case could be made for Go Google Yourself at 10-1, but it’s doubtful that her odds will stay that high.  A part of handicapping is money management – how do you get the best ROI for your bet. You could do a box super on the top 4, or a chalky trifecta wager, and cheer when the expected happens. A win is a win, I guess.  As for me, I’ll save my hard-earned $100 ThoroFan virtual dollars for another day.