Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Santa Maria Stakes (G2)

Santa Maria Stakes Will Have Forceful Ending

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

This small field of accomplished field of fillies and mares will offer a great race to watch and maybe wager on. With a collection of top jocks and trainers, the race should be run true to each horse’s form. The pace should be honest with the two inside horses inclined for speed and with a front-running style. Tapped shows inclination to engage early, as well. Will they set the race up for a closer? That is the key question to this race.

 

1.       Just a Smidge (Into Mischief) is a long shot with a desire to push the pace. She and jockey, Garcia, will set the pace from the rail. Shortening-up to 8.5 furlongs is to her advantage. May be in the mix until the end.

2.       Paradise Woods (Union Rags) is the class of the field and the prohibitive Morning Line favorite. Her last few races show tactical speed, but early in her career she was prone to lead the pack. She turned in a very big Thoro-Graph number in her last race. Will she bounce this time? Smith is a genius at judging pace. He will likely track Just a Smidge waiting for the opportunity to ponce. She is giving four pounds to the others which may hurt her chances, but the likely winner.

3.       Exuberance (Archarcharch) is the second-long shot and has little form or speed figures to like. She will be competing for fifth.

4.       Tapped (Tapit) is a solid closer who is coming up in company She is versatile with early turn-of-foot and with a powerful late run. She will likely let others set the pace. She could be flying late. An exotic play is in her range.

5.       La Force (Power, GB) finished second to the favorite, Paradise Woods, the last time out in a grade two on the same surface. She conceded the race when she went three-wide closing into the stretch with equal weights with Paradise Woods. With four-pound advantage this time she could make amends. Biggest threat.

The race’s finish may be known in the first furlong. Will a speed duel ensue? Will Mike Smith read the race right?  Likely, Just a Smidge will challenge Mike Smith’s race strategy by controlling the rail and the pace. Paradise Woods will track in second. At the quarter pole, both La Force and Tapped will be making their moves on the two leaders. With a half-a-furlong to go It will be a 3-way-charge to the finish-line.

La Force benefiting from the weight difference will pass Paradise Woods at the wire to win. Tapped will surprise her previous jockey, Mike Smith, with a courageous burst at the end. Unfortunately, she will not be successful but will fill-out the Trifecta.

Here is how they will finish:

1.       La Force (#5)

2.       Paradise Woods (#2)

3.       Tapped (#4)

Handigamble play:

$40 Win and Place on La Force (#5) -------$80.00

$2 Exacta box (#5, # 2, #4) ---$12.00

$4 exacta-part-wheel (#4, #5) over (#2) ----$8.00

Good luck, but keep the day job!