Friday, May 10, 2019

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Man O'War Stakes (G1)

Maker Exacta in the Man O'War?

By Laurie Ross, IMTBreds



The 1 3/8-mile Man O’War Stakes, held over the Belmont Park turf oval has a long and illustrious history. Previous winners include 2-time Champion Grass Horse Gio Ponti, Point of Entry, and the old veteran Twilight Eclipse who earned over $2 million the hard way in 40 starts.






The 2019 Man O’War Stakes drew a field of 9 accomplished turf routers. The turf is expected to be firm.



The Favorites
The morning line favorite naturally hails from the Chad Brown barn. FOCUS GROUP (5-2) has won or placed in 8 of 12 lifetime starts, including a nose victory in the 1 1/2-mile Pan American at Gulstream Park in his last outing. Brown teams up with Irad Ortiz, Jr. for a 40% success rate.  The drawback is that Focus Group is 0-4 at Belmont Park; his best placing was 3rd two years ago. Worth a look for exotics.

Irish super trainer Aidan O’Brian shipped in two contenders for the Man o’War. MAGIC WAND (IRE) (3-1) has a spotty record, seldom winning, but good for a runner-up position. The bay filly was 4th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths over good turf.  She was last seen finishing a distant 5th in the Dubai Sheema Classic.  The filly hasn’t seen a firm turf course since before May of last year. Note that O’Brian starters are 2-40 in the last 2 years in the US.

Hard to believe, but  ZULU ALPHA (4-1) has never raced at Belmont in his 24-race career. Mike Maker has kept the 6YO gelding busy winning races at Gulfstream Park and in the mid-west.  Gulfstream Park form transfers to Belmont Park, and Zulu Alpha won 2 of 3 starts at the southern track this winter. He was last seen placing 3rd, beaten only a length in the Elkhorn over a yielding Keeneland course.  Irad Ortiz, Jr. jumps off Zulu Alpha to stick with his regular mount Focus Group, but no matter, the equally adept Javier Castellano takes over.  Win/Place contender.


Longshots
KULIN ROCK (20-1)  is a former claimer who found new life in the Maker barn. After a career as a claiming horse at shorter distances, Kulin Rock stretched out in the Mac Diarmida to finish a fast-closing fourth, missing by only a length behind Zulu Alpha. Next out at 1 1/2-miles, he made a sustained drive to win an allowance. Sure, it’s a step up, but his last late-pace speed figure is the second highest in the field. This is an improving horse, and the field isn’t that tough for a G1.

ARKLOW (8-1) wasn’t ready for prime time in his 2019 debut. After rearing in the gate, he and Florent Geroux weren’t settled when the gate opened. Arklow was off a step slow and took a right turn, unseating his rider. In reality, this is his first start off a year layoff. Arklow tries hard and has placed no worse than 4th in his last 9 starts. He’s in a little tough but could hit the board at long odds.

CHANNEL MAKER (6-1) hasn’t been near the winners circle since last September, when he earned the win in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (G1) at Belmont. Despite not hitting the board this year, Channel Maker was a very close 4th, missing by only 1 1/4-lengths to Zulu Alpha in the Mac Diarmida (G2). Channel Maker does his best work when he’s allowed to press the pace, and he should get that chance here. Exotics look.

EPICAL (10-1) is stepping up in company, but has won or placed in all four of his last starts in California.  James Cassidy doesn’t ship for the fun of it, but unfortunately, over the last 2 years, his charges are 0-2 when shipping. Epical does his best work on the front end. Keep in mind for exotics.

HUNTING HORN (IRE) (10-1) finished next to his stablemate Magic Wand in the  Dubai Sheema Classic, and is clearly a second string O’Brian trainee. His best placing in the US was 3rd behind Zulu Alpha in the 1 1/2-mile W. L. McKnight Stakes (G3) over a yielding Gulfstream Park turf course in January. One of Hunting Horn’s best placings was at Belmont over a firm course when he finished 3rd in the Belmont Derby (G1) last year.

VILLAGE KING (ARG) (15-1) likes to set or press the pace, but seldom lasts for the win. This is an odd placing by Pletcher, perhaps with hopes that a shorter distance might help, but Epical will put the pressure on. 


Selections
Village King, Channel Maker,  and Epical will be close to the lead. Magic Wand, Hunting Horn, Arklow and Zulu Alpha like to press or sit mid-pack while Focus Group and Kulin Rock do their best as closers.  
Will we see a Mike Maker exacta?  Zulu Alpha has beaten three in here, Kulin Rock, Arklow and Hunting Horn. He must be considered the class and he has good current form.  Kulin Rock has improved dramatically since joining the Maker barn, and this seems a logical spot for him to move forward. Very enticing at 15-1 morning odds, and it will be a gift if he’s anywhere near that at post time.
Focus Group will be bet down due to his connections, but I seen him as a false favorite. Sure, he’s won/placed in his last 4 starts, but that wasn’t at Belmont. He’s hit the board only once in 4 tries at the track. Maybe 5th times the charm, but I’d rather use him underneath.

#2 ZULU ALPHA (4-1)
#9 KULIN ROCK (20-1)
#6 FOCUS GROUP (5-2)
#4 ARKLOW (8-1)


Handigambling:
I see only a couple that I like for the win, but most of the field have a good chance of hitting the board.
$0.50 Super – 2, 9 / 6, 4/ all / all = $60
$10 WPS (4-1 or higher) #9 = $30



Photo by generous permission of Eclipse Sportswire.



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