Field in Need of Supervision
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman
With the
fever of the Run for the Roses around, it is easy to be a sexist, regardless of
your gender, and forget that the 3-year-old fillies offer exciting races, too.
This week’s Handicappers’ Corner race is from the Fair Grounds, the Rachel
Alexandra Stakes (GII) and may prove that point.
The field of
ten fillies is stratified into class groups. Only two have grade one level
experience. Three others have grade two level experience. The remaining five
are trying graded company for the first time. Yet, it is early in the year and
this may make little difference.
Weather may
be a problem. New Orleans is predicting rain in the morning and continuing
through post-time, albeit lightening-up. Condition of the track may make the
difference.
Let’s look at
the field:
1. Molto
Bella ((Violence) has
the best speed pattern with a supportive draw. Showed very little in December
when she was beaten soundly by Positive Spirit (#5). May need a few more races before
her true quality level shows.
2. Street
Band (Street
Minstrel) will challenge Molto Bella for the lead and help set the pace of the
race. Clearly, a major step-up in class for this filly. Will
like the wet going, if forecast is right. Wait and see.
3. Serengeti
Empress (Alternation)
has won at this level and gave Jaywalker, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner,
a threat early in that race. Has enough class to make her mark here. The major
question— is she ready after a 3 plus month layoff.
4. Positive
Spirit (Pioneerof the
Nile) dominated the Demoiselle in December. This suggests she is up to the
task. Always in the money with the last two on top. Workout pattern mirrors her
previous successes. Dangerous.
5. Liora (Candy Ride) showed her love for the
wet going in her November race. Will like the wet going, if forecast is right. But she will be one of the group trying for
the lead and may be caught-up in duel.
6. Oxy
Lady (Oxbow)
following her win in the Tempted Stakes in November, she performed well in the
Starlet Stakes (GI) a month later. If the pace is forced, this filly will be in
the picture at the end.
7. Bell’s
the One
(Majesticperfection) keeps jockey Geroux which is a good sign. However, 8.5-furlong
distance may be too much for her, now. Perhaps the connections have their eyes
on a later race. Pass.
8. Eres
Tu (Malibu Moon) had
a solid race in her last race losing by only ¾ of a length to Needs Supervision
in a stretch duel. Combination of trainer Asmussen and jockey Santana telegraph
good things. Her closing style needs a hot pace. Maybe.
9. Needs
Supervision (Paynter)
has been out of the Winner’s Circle in only one race in her last four starts.
Likes Fair Grounds could notch her first graded win. Will like the wet going, if
forecast is right. Serious contender.
10.Chasing
Yesterday (Tapit) scratched.
This appears
to be a tougher race to handicap than expected. As such setting aside graded
race experience may be a helpful angle. With the speed horse on the rail we can
expect an honest early pace. But Fair Grounds hasn’t favorable to speed over
the last five days –40% winning on the front end while 59% winning off the
pace.
You have to respect Serengeti Empress’s speed and being the only one to
win a grade one race, albeit three months ago. Chasing Yesterday will be tough,
but may need one. Positive Spirit is showing a solid improvement pattern and
should continue to improve. The undefeated Bell’s the One should stretch out
well. Needs Supervision will have a huge closing punch that could surprise.
Here is how I see them finishing:
1. Needs Supervision (#9)
2. Positive Spirit (#4)
3. Chasing Yesterday (#10)
4. Bell’s the One (#7)
Handigamble ($100)
1. $20 win and place on Needs Supervision (#9) --$40
2. $5 Exacta Box –Needs
Supervision (#9), Positive Spirit (#4) and Chasing Yesterday (#10) --$20
3. $1 Trifecta Box --- Needs Supervision
(#9), Positive Spirit (#4), Chasing Yesterday (#10) and Bell’s the One (#7)
--$24
4. $1 Trifecta Key --- (not in play) Needs Supervision
(#9) over Positive Spirit (#4) Chasing Yesterday (#10)
and Bell’s the One (#7) over Positive Spirit (#4) Chasing Yesterday (#10)
and Bell’s the One (#7) --$6
Good luck,
but keep the day job.
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