Handicapper's Corner: Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)

Mucho Gusto Logical Choice in R.B. Lewis 

By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

At first glance, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) seems like a good race for handicappers to go against a recent Derby prep winner – Gunmetal Gray. But the two other logical alternatives entered figure to run at low prices too.

Mucho Gusto is the slight morning line favorite, although his loss last time will give bettors a slight break and make bettors consider Gunmetal Gray, who recently won.

Nolo Contesto is the up and coming third option, but only a maiden winner. 

In any case, here is a horse-by-horse examination of each contender.

1) Kid Cantina – No need to analyze this gelding too closely. He is slow. He finished second in a starter allowance and fourth in a state-bred allowance two races ago. His connections possibly suffer from Derby fever to believe they belong in this spot.

2) Magnificent McCool – Derby fever runs strong in the Phoenix Thoroughbred camp as well. The son of Giant’s Causeway owns zero dirt wins out of four tries, but did break his maiden nicely last time out in a local nine-furlong maiden, albeit on turf. If not for the Kentucky Derby, the connections would likely press on with a grass campaign. Yet, here he is. He did finish second on dirt to Extra Hope and third against Dueling. In those two cases though, he lost by 8 ¾ and 6 ¼ lengths.

3) Easy Shot – Before writing him off, watch the stretch run of the Sham Stakes (G3) closely. He got shut off in the final strides by Sueno and Much Better. Still, his ceiling feels like a minor award, given none of his five speed figures broke 100 on the TimeformUS scale. He will find a nice stalking position around third or fourth.

4) Gunmetal Gray – The Sham winner became lucky when heavy favorite Coliseum failed to break well, while the pacesetters got tired late after moderate fractions. In this situation, there is not a true sprinter such as Savagery to help mess up the pace, but rather Mucho Gusto might lead the field uncontested. Also, this colt only earned a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Sham, making him more questionable. But, his high speed figure is a nice 112 in the American Pharoah (G1). Use this closer defensively, and if his odds drift up, then consider him even more.

5) Mucho Gusto – Although he lost the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) by five lengths, he lost to the highly touted Improbable, who will probably end up as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites when all the prep races are done. He still ran well, finishing three lengths ahead of third-place finisher Extra Hope, while earning a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the runner-up finish. The Pace Projector thinks Mucho Gusto will lead uncontested, and for a frontrunner that is the best kind of situation.

6) Nolo Contesto – Visually, the son of Pioneerof the Nile looked fantastic in his maiden win. He outdueled Omaha Beach in the lane after only a vigorous handride to encourage him, with eight lengths separating Omaha Beach and the third-place finisher Green Fleet. Furthermore, this horse also initially ran wide on the first turn, possibly affecting his punch in the stretch run. But he only ran a 100 on TimeformUS and 80 on Beyer Speed Figures, making his numbers somewhat low.

Final Conclusion

Mucho Gusto gets the top spot based on his speed figures, while Gunmetal Gray is second because it looks like the pace will not set up well this time. If he does get pace though, he should close well. Nolo Contesto rates third based on his potential.

Handigambling ($100)

Remember, no one needs to bet every race out there. If a race does not click off something in the head that signals “this is a great opportunity,” then something is wrong.

Nevertheless, the suggested bet is $50 win and place on Mucho Gusto.

Scratch this bet if the track is wet, since his sire hated an off track.

(It is possible I will come up with a more complicated bet on social media later on.)