Handicapper's Corner: Woodward Stakes (G1)

Veterans Face off in Woodward Stakes

By: The Turk  

Seeking the Soul: Coady Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today reading the $750 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga. This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007.  Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate.  This is going to be an excellent betting race.  There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.

You'll find Scratches and Changes here.  You'll find the weather here, and by the looks of it we should have a dry, fast dirt track.

Let's get after it!
 

It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today.  I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win.  Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart.

  Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles  Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018  

Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.

Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts.  One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt. Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite.  In his last ten races he's one three times:  an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017.  The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park.  Woof!  He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131.  Here he was in good firm at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.

Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well.  An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.

Irap: WSVX FM

The nearly $3.0 Million dollar earning Gunnevera will be coming late, but will he have enough tactical speed early on to be well positioned.  That's something the handicapper must consider.  I'm betting against him to win and I'm not even sure I'll cover him to Place (and yes, that should all but assure he does win!) I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti.   

I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all). Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.

 West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.

If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.  

Razorback Handicap G3:  1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed

Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty.  Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me. Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out.  While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles.  5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.

While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta. In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1  at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has  big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year.  I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.

Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence.  Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K.   

Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs.  Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).

I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line.  Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.

I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw.  I tossed Imperative as I  think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes. 

I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts.  I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.

So what to do with all this?

I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets.  I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward. 

My early thoughts are: $1 Exacta:  10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7  $15

That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge Over Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)

That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea.  This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap.  Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.

Thanks for reading, Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: Del Mar Debutante Stakes (G1)

Brilliant Field Set for Del Mar Debutante

By: Laurie Ross, PedigreePower

Since 2000, nine fillies who would later be crowned Champion Two Year Old have contested the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante(G-1). Four of them, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine, Stardom Bound, and Songbird won the Debutante and completed a Debutante/BC Juvenile Fillies double.

 

This year a field of only five hopefuls will enter the starting gate at Del Mar. 

BRILL(8-5) had an impressive debut.  After bobbing at the start, the filly made up ground, going five-wide around the turn, and in a furious charge, ran down Del Mar Mary, who later finished a distant second to Bellafina, yet held off the charge of Boujie Girl by a nose. By prominent filly sire Medaglia d'Oro out of a stakes-winning Malibu Moon mare, Brill is a large, long-striding filly who will improve with distance. She’s trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who trained Champion Songbird, a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro who captured the Del Mar Debutante in 2015.

MOTHER MOTHER (2-1) was impressive in her debut, leading the entire way to win by 6 1/2 lengths.  Although she has high knee action, she lengthened stride down the lane. By Pioneerof The Nile, Mother Mother is a half-sister to 2014 Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve and should love the extra distance. Trainer Bob Baffert has sent out seven Debutante winners since 1997, but the last was in 2012. Mother Mother gets a jock switch from Drayden Van Dyke to Joe Talamo, as Van Dyke opted to stick with Brill. 

WATCH ME BURN (15-1) is the most experienced filly in the race, with four races under her saddle. Her BRIS speed figures have improved each time, as has her winning margins in her last two races. The daughter of Hold Me Back had a pre-race breeze over the turf. Alonso Quinonez has piloted the youngster in every start.

BOUJIE GIRL (8-1)  was no match for Belafina in the Sorrento Stakes. The daughter of Flashback broke on top but was four to five wide the entire way while pressing the pace. She ran out of oats in the stretch, missing second place by a nose, and crossed the finish line 4 1/4 lengths behind Bellafina.  Boujie Girl galloped out in front of the tired Bellafina after the wire. Boujie Girl drew the rail, so she’ll get a better trip in the Debutante.

BELLAFINA (9-5) ran them off their feet in the 6F Sorrento Stakes (G2) in her last start, setting wicked early fractions of 21.82, 45.25 and 57.37. She slowed in the stretch, getting her final furlong in 13.24.  Her speed figure took a 19 point upward hike, and her post-race work was a full second slower than her pre-race breeze, a hint that she may regress. In her favor, the Simon Callaghan trainee recorded a 5F bullet move for the Debutante.  The daughter of Quality Road may be fastest out of the gate and has zipped faster early fractions than the rest, but she may not be able to sustain her speed against this field going an extra furlong.

Selections:

Del Mar is overwhelmingly speed-favoring, and there’s no shortage of speed in the race. All except Brill won their races on the lead.   

If Bojie Girl breaks as sharply as she did in the Sorrento, she may vie for the lead with the very quick Bellafina. Mother Mother and Watch Me Burn may stalk them, and Brill will be right there, too.  With only five fillies in contention, this is a jockey’s race.

BRILL (8-5)
 

MOTHER MOTHER (2-1)
 

Longshot: WATCH ME BURN (15-1)
 

Handigambling:

Part of being a successful handicapper is to know which races will return the best ROI for your money. With only five horses in the field, you could conceivably cover the field with a slew of exotic bets, but although you’d be certain of a payout, the return would likely be less than the amount bet.  My advice is save the dollars for a more lucrative betting opportunity and enjoy watching the race.

Handicapper's Corner: Travers Stakes (G1)

149 Travers Stakes has Magic and Wonder

Eleven three-year-old colts and geldings will contest the 1 1/4 mile “Midsummer Derby.”  The field includes Haskell and Jim Dandy winners Good Magic and Tenfold, Preakness and Belmont Stakes runners-up Bravazo and Gronkowski, and Queen’s Plate heroine Wonder Gadot. 

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers and guest handicapper Zach Taylor from the University of Arizona Racetrack Industry Program offer their choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs. 

Good luck to everyone!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Mendelssohn	Vino Rosso	Gronkowski	Good Magic
John Caro	Gronkowski	Wonder Gadot	Good Magic	Catholic Boy
Jeff Cobb	Gronkowski	Mendelssohn	Vino Rosso	Bravazo
Nick Costa	Good Magic	Gronkowski	Wonder Gadot	Vino Rosso
Reinier Macatangay	Good Magic	Bravazo	Wonder Gadot	Trigger Warning
Robert Marks	Good Magic	Gronkowski	Bravazo	Mastermind
Michael Mills	Good Magic	Bravazo	Vino Rosso	King Zachary
Nicolle Neulist	Catholic Boy	Gronkowski	Good Magic	Bravazo
Laurie Ross	Wonder Gadot	Good Magic	Bravazo	Tenfold
Zach Taylor	Gronkowski	Good Magic	Wonder Gadot	Bravazo