Handicapper's Corner: Whimsical Stakes (G3)

Something Out of the Ordinary for Whimsical Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

If the field of eight fillies and mares don’t challenge, then the name of the race might. The Whimsical Stakes is a $125,000 six furlong race for 4-year-olds and up fillies and mares. As the name suggests we might expect something “out of the ordinary” from this race over the synthetic surface at Woodbine Race Course. 

It is always good when handicapping spring races from the north of the border to check to weather forecast. We can expect a wet and cold race day. There is a 60% chance of rain on Saturday with temperature reaching a race time high of 41 degrees. Luckily, the synthetic track should hold up well with any amount of rain. There is a good chance the rain will tapper off at the listed 4:59 post time. That’s good news for the jockeys. 

Handicapping this race will require we find an angle that plays nicely with the Woodbine surface, distance and weather. Lets see how the field stacks-up.

   1.   Jessica Krupnick (Uncle Mo) is shipping in for a first time try at Woodbine and with no synthetic racing surface experience. One of three that might want the lead out of the gate. Post position not right for this strategy. With the step-up in class not sure she will be there at the end.

   2.   Sky Flower (Flower Alley) is another shipper without Woodbine experience, albeit a nice record over synthetic tracks. Her trainer does well on synthetics; 24% win stat. Has been running close to this class level. Has tactical speed to be running at the end. A piece at best.

   3.   Just Be Kind (Sky Mesa) is a local filly who has been wintering in Florida. There she finished 4^th in a grade 2 stakes race at Gulfstream Park in March. Could surprise.

   4.   Sugar Jones (Old Forester) is another local horse who is working bullets for this this comeback after five months off. Although the right class for these, may need this race to return to best form. Wait until the next race to invest.

   5.   Let It Ride Mom (Into Mischief) is another one returning home after a six month rest. Last year won $100K race at Woodbine and competed honestly in Saratoga last summer. Her last race was a turf-DRF-Key-race where she weakened but 3 of the 11 starters came back to win races. She is fond of synthetic surfaces, Canadian racing and going from turf to synthetic. Maybe it is her turn to shine.

   6.   Scotty Model (Mr. Scotty) is has been in Arkansas where she has been preparing for her return north. Shows nice works over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park. May not be bothered by bad weather Saturday. She has a 75% in the money record when racing at Woodbine. This includes a 50%-win record. Her last race, Spring Fever, at Oaklawn Park was a key race, as well. Look for this mare to be coming at the end with hot jockey Hernandez up. Likely winner.

   7.   Silent Sonet (Silent Name) is returning after a rest at Gulfstream Park where trainer Gonzalez did well shipping Woodbine horse into the south Florida track. Bullet workouts suggest she is coming back ready to fire. Another good one, but with less racing experience than most of the others.

    8.   Moonlite Promise (Malibu Moon) is the Morning Line favorite at 2-1. Keeps jockey Boulanger for her return to her preferred track and surface.  She is a front runner that may be compromised by the outside post. At low odds, may be value challenged. High weight doesn’t offer any encouragement. Maybe.

The likely foul weather may impact if rain continues at race time. It is likely to see Jessica Krupnick (#1), Silent Sonet (#7) and Moonlite Promise (#8) vying for the lead into the first and lonely turn. Pace should be hot. They will be pushed by Sky Flower (#2) and Sugar Jones (#4) for a while. As the stretch appears these two should fade to the on-rushing three closers – Just Be Kind (#3), Let It Ride Mom (#5) and Scotty Model (#6).

Here is my prediction for the finish:

   1.   Scotty Model (#6)

   2.   Just Be Kind (#3)

   3.   Silent Sonet #7)

   4.   Jessica Krupnick (#1)

Handigamble play is:

   1.   $10 Exacta Box #3, #6, #7) = $60

   2.   $.50 Tri Box #1,#3,#6,#7) =    $12

   3.   $25 to place on # 3           =     $25

   4.   $1 Exacta Key  #1 over #3,#6,#7  =$3

Good Luck but keep the day job.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes (G2)

Hunting for Longshots in the Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes

By: Dylan Jarmulowicz, Wireplayers.com

The spring meet at Keeneland is short, but also intense in stakes races as well as in rich tradition. It really is one of the best meets of the year and that is for many reasons, my favorite being the diverse race cards. Keeneland is one of the few tracks that cards races anywhere from 4 furlongs to this Grade II Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes at a mile and a half over the lawn. This race is interesting as the field is strong as well as horses coming off extended layoffs and almost everyone is shipping into Kentucky from various locations. Time to find those overlays and checkmark winners!

Advance Weather: Partly Cloudy, 60s

This race is tough to decipher due to so many variables. Horses are shipping in from all over the country; combine that with a few of the top contenders coming off a long winter layoff. Starting with the morning line favorite #10 ITSINTHEPOST (5/2), all he has done is won three consecutive races, all Grade II s. He has that stalker running style which is perfect for turf racing but he ships in from Santa Anita and the turf course in California is vastly different from this one in Kentucky. He was also well bet in the last three races and he could be well backed at the windows again. I prefer others more but leaving him out is dangerous.

#3 CALL PROVISION (5-1) maybe the most interesting in this race. He is one game race horse but most of it has been against lesser competition and he is coming off a five-month layoff. He has run well off the layoff before and has been working out all winter long. He may need a race, he may not be as good as some others in this race, but, he is interesting at a bit of a price.

My top play is #12 HAYABUSA ONE (9/2). He has never run a bad race, has that stalker, versatile running style that is key in turf racing but most importantly, he has won here at Keeneland before. The distance should be no problem and while he has been running well at Santa Anita, I’d argue that a softer turf course would only move him up a few notches. If we can get anything around 9/2 he maybe the steal of this racing Saturday!

My Plays:

WIN: 12

EX: 12/2,3,8,9,10

Good Luck!

   

Handicapper's Corner: Charles Town Classic (G2)

On the Warpath in the Charles Town Classic

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

With the Derby Prep season done, there's plenty of attention to lavish on the older horse division.  Fittingly, then, the handicap set gets one of its richest races of the year this weekend.  The Grade 2 Charles Town Classic is an anomaly among graded stakes – not in its distance, a mile and an eighth on the dirt, but in that the nine furlongs covers three tight turns.  But, for horses who can handle a voyage to the Appalachians and a race over such a tight track?  The rewards are rich: the Charles Town Classic offers a $1,200,000 purse.  It’s one of two graded stakes races the West Virginia oval offers (the other is the Charles Town Oaks (G3) in September), but it is by far the richest race of the year at the track.

This year marks the tenth running of the Charles Town Classic.  Inaugurated in 2009 and first graded in 2011, the race's winners have been some of the most durable horses in the modern handicap division.  Its most accomplished star was 2013 winner Game On Dude, a gelding who won 16 times in 34 starts from ages three through seven, and won eight Grade 1 stakes in his career, including three runnings of the Santa Anita Handicap.  Fan favorite Caixa Eletronica, who raced 69 times from ages two through eight, counted an open-lengths victory in the 2012 Charles Town Classic as one of his 23 career wins.

Imperative has been the recent star of the Charles Town Classic: he won the race in both 2014 and 2017, finished second in 2015, and fourth in 2016.  He is one of two two-time winners of the Charles Town Classic; mid-Atlantic mainstay Researcher won the first two runnings, in 2009 and 2010.

This year’s Charles Town Classic drew a field of seven.  Among them, only one has ever run at Charles Town before: War Story finished third in last year’s Charles Town Classic, beaten only half a length for the top prize by his then-stablemate Imperative.  Though that came over a sloppy track, War Story has enough good dry track form that it would be no surprise to see him do two spots better this time around.  With Afleet Willy fast enough to give Diversify a challenge up front (and, likely, too much of a challenge for the likely chalk to stay the trip!), the pace should be honest.  War Story should be able to track off of them and make a well-timed move.  Though he loses Irad Ortiz, his rider for his impressive last-out score in the Challenger Stakes, he does get Javier Castellano.  War Story has back form with Castellano, who piloted him to victory in the Brooklyn (G2) last June.  Taken together, War Story is in at the right class level, shows the right recent form, and returns to a unique track that he has proven he can handle.  He looks impeccably spotted in the Charles Town Classic, and looks like a single here.

Something Awesome has been in, well, awesome form this winter.  In five starts at Laurel since moving into the barn of Jose Corrales, he has won four times, with his only loss being a close third behind Awesome Banner in the six-furlong Fire Plug Stakes.  Though four of those starts were sprints, he stretched out to a mile and an eighth for the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial last month.  Most impressively, given that he was a stretch-out sprinter, he was able to rate through the early stages of the race, make a well-timed move, and run on.  He faces tougher horses here, on a whole, but doesn’t need a major step forward to be a factor here.

Discreet Lover notches up in class here after a decisive victory in the Excelsior (G3) at Aqueduct two weeks ago.  It’s a quick turnaround, but Discreet Lover has already shown he can handle coming right back, as he showed when winning the Swatara Stakes at Penn National last year on just eleven days’ rest.  Though the field, on a whole, was a bit softer than this, he did finish well clear of Fear the Cowboy, one of his Charles Town Classic foes, there.  With proven experience at a mile and an eighth, the ability to take his form to many different tracks, and the ability to run well on the pace, near it, or from well off it, he has appealing dimensions of flexibility.  And, though Discreet Lover has never raced at Charles Town, he is the only one in the field who has a regular member of the local riding colony in the irons: 21% rider J. D. Acosta.  All in all, it would be no surprise for this unheralded, hard-trying runner to be a factor at a price.

Selections:

#5 War Story (5/2)

#4 Something Awesome (8/1)

#3 Discreet Lover (10/1)

Longshot:  if speed does end up carrying the day, #7 Afleet Willy (12/1) looks better set to make an impact than the shorter-priced Diversify.  There are several reasons to stand against Diversify here – he tends to do better over broader courses than smaller courses, and his flashes of form at nine and even ten furlongs have come with an uncontested lead.  With Afleet Willy in the field, Diversify does not stand to get that uncontested lead.  (You’re to Blame may also send, but is likely a bit too slow in the early stages to really vie with these two, and does not likely have the stamina to stay out the trip.)  Afleet Willy will be a longer price than Diversify, and there’s more to like.  Afleet Willy has never been out of the exacta going nine furlongs.  He won the nine-furlong John B. Campbell at Laurel last out after taking some pace pressure, and finished a hard-fought second in the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes at the distance last year.  The biggest question with Afleet Willy here is the layoff; it has been about two months since he saw the starter.  But, he has been able to fire fresh before, and trainer Claudio Gonzalez does well with horses coming off similar breaks.

Handicapper's Corner: Arkansas Derby (G1)

Arkansas Derby Last Chance for Romance

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

The Arkansas Derby (G1) is the last major prep race for 2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders. True, the Lexington Stakes, run on the same day, will offer minor qualifying points, but Oaklawn Park’s Grade 1 event will be the make or break race for those looking to solidify their position on the Derby leaderboard.   

Nine colts led by Rebel Stakes (G2) hero Magnum Moon will enter the starting gate for the 1 1/8 mile contest.

 
The Favorites

Magnum Moon — he’s passed every test and can sit on or off the pace. By Malibu Moon out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, the Pletcher trainee shouldn’t have an issue with 9F, but I didn’t like how he was all over the track at the end of the Rebel Stakes, bearing out, then moving back in. Since he has only 3 starts under his girth, maybe it was inexperience, but he didn’t do it in his previous race. Magnum Moon had a fun, bouncy gallop over the Oaklawn dirt a few days ago and was looking good.

Quip —  Has a solid middle-distance pedigree, by Distorted Humor out of a daughter of Indian Charlie. He’ll be tested by Magnum Moon. Originally slated for the Bluegrass, Quip was instead pointed to the Arkansas Derby after Baffert decided to keep Justify home. Could upset the race.

Solomini — Does his best when he’s closer to the pace. He made up ground in the Rebel but didn’t change leads while chasing the Moon. The son of Curlin is quirky, but always a contender.

Upset Potential

Tenfold — has the pedigree to run all day. He’s by Curlin out of a Tapit half-sister to Donegal Moon (G3 Pegasus, 8.5F). His second damsire is Giant’s Causeway and his 3^rd dam is 1995 champion grass mare Possibly Perfect. With only a maiden and allowance victory under his girth, Tenfold is still figuring things out. He was stubborn in his last race, sticking his head in front and staying there. Would have been nice if he’d drawn off, but a win is a win. He could surprise and pay tenfold your bet.

Exotics Plays

Combatant — always second or third best. 9F could be at the top of his range, but his running style suggests that he could surprise if the pace falls apart. He’ll be fighting it out down the stretch.

Dream Baby Dream — has a miler’s pedigree, but his grinding late-running style has him passing tired horses to get a piece of the dream. If they go fast early, he could hit the board. Shades of Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews. Exotics, in a dream.

Beautiful Shot — Was stuck in rush hour traffic the entire way in the Gotham, then had to slam on the breaks to avoid a crash. Arroyo wrapped him up after that. He’s been keeping good company in California and with a decent ride, has a shot to pick up a check. Exotics, if you’re feeling beautiful.

Not Today

Plainsman — This son of Flatter seems to be a steady, one-paced sort and likes this track. Unfortunately, that one pace is slower than the pace expected here. Maybe he’ll hold on to complete somebody’s lower exotics. Not mine, but somebody's.

Machismo — Nice pedigree for the distance, but he’s not up to this level of competition. The quick turn around and Quartarolo’s 0-10 record in graded stakes tells me Machismo really isn’t.  Pass.

Selections

Front-running speed rarely holds up in the Arkansas Derby. In the last decade, only four horses won either on the lead or while pressing the pacesetter. In the last five years, only American Pharoah won on the lead.

Longshots usually hit the board in the Arkansas Derby. Only three of the last ten favorites stood in the winner’s circle. Additionally, only two of the last ten winners had a victory in their previous start. Yes, I’m leaving Magnum Moon off my top four selections, but he’s certainly a contender. Can Steve Asmussen pull off the trifecta with Tenfold, Combatant and Dream Baby Dream?

#3 Tenfold (10-1)

#5 Solomini (2-1)

#9 Combatant (6-1)

#8 Quip (9-2)

Handigambling

This is a tough betting race. None of the lower priced favorites have neon red flags that would cause a bettor to look elsewhere. I don’t like that Magnum Moon bears out at the end of his races. That’s my preference, and thus, I left him off my top-four selections.  However, we aren’t limited to a top four when we bet, so I’ll include him plus a couple of late-running bombs underneath, ‘cause they like to hit the board at Oaklawn. In 2014, Danza shocked the field and paid $84.60 – and he was trained by Todd Pletcher.  Who’s Todd Pletcher?

$100 Virtual ThoroFan Funny Money

$0.10 Superfecta Key: #3/ #1, #4, #5, #6, #8, #9 = $12.00

$0.10 Superfecta Key: #5/ #1, #3, #4, #6, #8, #9 = $12.00

$0.10 Superfecta Key: #8/ #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9 = $12.00

$0.10 Superfecta Key: #6/ #1, #3, #4, #5, #8, #9 = $12.00

$5 WPS #3 (4-1+ odds) = $15

$5 WPS #1 (4-1+ odds) = $15

$22 to go wild on the rest of the card.

Handicapper's Corner: Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

Dona Bruja Stands Out From Jenny Wiley Crowd

By: Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

One common scenario when reading past performances is noticing a bunch of horses from the same race who all finished closely together. In the Grade 1, $350,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) on Saturday at Keeneland, there are five runners coming out of the Hillsborough Stakes (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs, and less than two lengths separated four of them from first to fifth. 


In this situation, it is best to try and beat the crowd. Not all of them can be win contenders, so bettors might as well choose one on top from a different race.

Here is a horse-by-horse analysis.

1) Cambodia (6-1) – Consistent type always finds a way to hit the board. While she may accomplish the same here, there is nothing that stands out about her.

2) Lovely Bernadette (30-1) – She picked up some nice graded stakes wins last fall. The Hillsborough flop where she lost by more than nine lengths is a head scratcher. Perhaps those stakes wins came against lesser competition, making her outclassed.

3) Off Limits (5-1) – The 6-year-old mare closed decently to run fifth in the Hillsborough, but there are three others from the same race and they all look similar. Prefer to limit underneath.

4) Dona Bruja (4-1) – This mare stands out. She took the Endeavour Stakes (G3) by four lengths over La Coronel, who runs in this spot too. When a horse wins by four or more on grass, it is a blowout because turf racing promotes smaller margins. The main choice.

5) Kitten’s Roar (12-1) – Like Cambodia, she is consistent but not a star. On any given day, she can work out a good trip and find her way onto the board. In terms of winning though, this is an unlikely candidate.

6) Bletchley (30-1) – Gulfstream Park is never a bad place to start a North American career. Even though this former Euro did well to pick up a win in an optional claimer, it is better to take a wait and see approach for now.

7) Sistercharlie (7-2) – It is difficult to go against Chad Brown in any turf race. Unlike his other filly Off Limits, this Brown starter owns a little more upside with only one start in North America. She ran a good second in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) last summer, and now receives Lasix for this race. Contender.

8) La Coronel (9-2) – As part of the clustered finish in the Hillsborough, she is a play against in this spot. Also, notice Dona Bruja defeated her by four lengths two races ago. The Queen Elizabeth Cup (G1) score last fall came with an uncontested lead. Limit to underneath spots.

9) Ultra Brat (30-1) – Grade 3 winner is probably outclassed.

10) Proctor’s Ledge (12-1) – She actually opened up on the Hillsborough field, before returning to reality. If she is considered to win, then so must all of them from the same race. That is unreasonable, so limit this one underneath too.

11) Fourstar Crook (5-1) – The Hillsborough winner is a win machine, taking 10 out of 15 starts. On closer inspection, most of those wins came against state-bred foes in New York. The wide post is not appealing either. Limit underneath as well

Selections
If one of those Hillsborough runners must be used on top though, maybe Proctor’s Ledge will at least offer some value in comparison to the rest.

But Dona Bruja is likely sitting on top of a big year. She always had hype behind her after winning easily in her North American debut and second start on this soil. This could be the year to unleash her full potential.

Handigambling ($100)

$40 Win – Dona Bruja
$30 Exacta – Dona Bruja / Kitten’s Roar
$30 Exacta – Dona Bruja / Proctor’s Ledge

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Big Three Slug It Out in SA Derby

By: Nick Costa, Trackside With Trackman

Aside from the Kentucky Derby in four weeks, this Saturday is the biggest one in racing for three-year old colts. Three major preps for the 144^th ‘Run for the Roses’, the Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, will award 100 points to the winner and 40 points to the runner-up, which is an almost guaranteed spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The trio of nine-furlong races will also award 20 and 10 points respectively, to the third and fourth-place horses, which could be decisive for those horses that have already accumulated points in earlier prep races.

Of the ’Big Three’, our Thorofan blog aims its spotlight out West at Santa Anita Racetrack for the $1 million Santa Anita Derby.

The anticipated rematch between Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie, who staged a classic stretch duel in the San Felipe Stakes one month ago, will not happen in the Santa Anita Derby, due to the latter horse sidelined with a leg injury. However, an equally intriguing matchup appears imminent in the Grade 1 contest on Saturday.

Bolt d’Oro, who is at or near the top of several media polls of Kentucky Derby contenders, has one blemish on his 5-race record, a third-place finish in last year’s BC Juvenile following a very wide trip. The colt had a minor setback in February but returned to the races in the San Felipe. Although not ‘fully cranked up’ according to his trainer, Mick Ruiz, the ‘Bolt Show’ delivered a smashing, all-out effort and was narrowly beaten by the Bob Baffert trained McKinzie. Following a review of the race by the stewards, Bolt d’ Oro was elevated to the win by virtue of McKinzie’s disqualification for interference nearing the finish line.

Benefitting from his strong comeback race, and excellent works since, Bolt d’Oro should be wound as tight as a drum with even more to offer. The multiple Grade 1 winner can bolster and solidify his status as ‘Best of the West’ with a victory here. Javier Castellano who took over the reins for the San Felipe, retains the mount.

Another top Kentucky Derby prospect from the Baffert barn, Justify, has now entered the fray. Baffert, a seven-time Santa Anita Derby winning trainer, was originally going to send his budding superstar to next weekend’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. However, McKinzie’s defection not only allowed his much hyped and highly regarded stablemate to join the Santa Anita lineup, but jockey Mike Smith makes a smooth transition from one to the other.

Justify, who was unraced as a two-year old, has started only twice, but displayed limitless potential when winning both races by a combined 16-lengths, albeit against lesser competition. The colt has done everything asked of him and has done it so effortlessly. No telling how good this colt really is. He takes a major step up and gets a stiff test for class. Justify will need to win or finish second to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Time will tell if he answers the call this Saturday.

Another notable Kentucky Derby name who will be in the Santa Anita starting gate on Saturday for the $1 million prep race is Instilled Regard. Much was expected of the LeComte Stakes winner when he was made the favorite for the Risen Star Stakes. The colt was in good position but faltered down the lane and finished fourth. It should be noted the third-place horse from that event, Noble Indy, came back next to win the Louisiana Derby. After two trips to New Orleans, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has kept Instilled Regard home in California and has worked him six times since his last outing. A return to top form should make him competitive and deliver a good account of himself. His speed figures aren’t as fast as the top two, so he needs to pick it up in that phase to have any shot of winning. Don’t discount his chances though, because young developing three-year olds can improve dramatically.

The rest of the field consists of a pair of maidens and a pair of maiden winners.

Back on March 10^th, during the stretch run of the San Felipe as Bolt d’Oro--McKinzie were duking it out, Santa Anita track announcer, Michael Wrona, said “The San Felipe is living up to its billing”, and it certainly did. Let’s hope on Saturday, the 2018 Santa Anita Derby can match or exceed it.

OUTLOOK

What to do? My best advice is to sit this one out and just enjoy the race. However, I’m compelled by my editor to make a selection. Since there is no value betting on Bolt d’Oro or Justify to win, I’ll take $100 mythical Thorofan bucks and put $50 to win and place on Instilled Regard. Hey, it’s a horse race and as we all are aware, strange things can happen.

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Ashland Stakes (G1)

Ashland Stakes - A "Threepeat" for Cory

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Ashland Stake has a varied history of different distances, surfaces and age conditions. Yet over the years it has been a very important race for fillies to show their abilities on the track. When you think of the Ashland Stakes you must think of great ones like ---Go For Wand, Inside Information, Silverbulletday and Take Charge Lady ---all who won the race and went on to make names for themselves in the sport and the breeding shed.

This year’s race features seven fillies hoping someday to have their names associated with the aforementioned fillies. The national weather service forecasts a 40% change of precipitation on Friday night with a 70% chance (snow) on Saturday. Track condition may be a major factor in this race. So, our handicapping will have to consider that possibility.

Let’s look at the field:

    1.   Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) comes off two very nice grade-two-races at the Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs. She owns solid Beyer figures for this distance.  Her rail position may force her to get in the game sooner than she would like. Unlike a couple others in the race who may like a wet track, she has no experience running over one. She will have to be in the race from the beginning. Can she hold on for a piece?

   2.   Eskimo Kisses (To Honor and Serve) has experience racing on the Keeneland track; one of two that have. She gets a new jockey, Cory Lanerie, who has won the last two runnings of this race (2016, 2017). Can he “Threepeat”? With some early speed in this race, his off the pace style will help. If the weather continues as forecasted, he will benefit from the off track. A contender from off the pace, come rain or shine.

    3.   Patrona Margarita (Special Rate) is working nicely but may be outclassed. She is one hoping for a dry day. Keeps jockey Hernandez. May surprise for a piece of exotics which may help her with qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Oaks. Risky. Use only at the bottom of a ticket.

    4.   C.S. Incharge (Take Charge Indy) is trying graded stakes level for the first time, although showed well in $100K race. Gets hot jockey Saez back after a nice win over sloppy track at Gulfstream Park with him up. Maybe not fast enough but could hold the lead over a wet track…maybe right to the wire.

    5.   Andina Del Sur (Giant’s Causeway) has had previous races on the turf. Turf to dirt % for trainer is low, however her dirt works offer hope. Keeps trainer’s regular jockey, Leparoux. If wet her turf experience may be comforting. Not sure, may surprise for a piece.

    6.   Ipanema Beach (Candy Ride) is still a maiden and asking her to break it in grade one race is a stretch. Has worked and raced over the Keeneland surface, so may feel a little more at home than others. Needs a lot of help to be a factor. However, new blinkers will not be enough.

    7.   Tyfosha (Flatter) gets top jockey Irad Ortiz. Broke her maiden in January but hasn’t shown much since. Will likely go for the lead out of the gate setting a fast pace with C.S. Incharge. Could be in the money, then again, maybe not.

Selections

There are number of ways to evaluate this race. With C.S.Incharge and Tyfosha on the lead and Monomoy Girl pushing from the one hole, the race could belong to the best closer. If the track is wet with a lot of “kick-back” into the faces of these youngsters, it may be a 2 horse race gate-to-wire. It is possible that Tyfosha doesn’t take to the track leaving C.S. Incharge to control the race over a wet track which she should like. In this scenario, slop-experienced Eskimos Kisses will be coming with a burst down the stretch. I like this last scenario and think Eskimos Kisses is the better of the two mud horses. Here is how I think will finish:

      1.   Eskimo Kisses (#2)

      2.   C.S. Incharge (#4)

      3.   Monomoy Girl (#1)

      4.   Andina Del Sur (#5)

Handigamble Play for $100

      1.   $20 Exacta Box: Eskimo Kisses (#2 and C.S. Incharge (#4) = $40.00

      2.   $5 Trifexta Key: Eskimo Kisses (#2) over Monomoy Girl (#1), C.S. Incharge (#4), Patrona Margarita (#3) and Andina Del Sur (#5) = $60.00

Good luck but keep the day job!