Is the Risen Star Stakes a Big Easy for Instilled Regard?
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
The
Risen Star, with a purse of $400,00 kicks off the first race on the Kentucky
Derby prep schedule featuring higher point values with 50, 20, 10, and 5 points awarded to the top four
finishers.
Last
month, the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes launched the Louisiana path to Louisville and
offered points on a scale of 10-4-2-1. Next month, the Fair Grounds offers it
third and final prep in the series, the Louisiana Derby. The Grade 1 affair,
run at a mile and one-eighth, will double in points, giving 100-40-20-10 to the
first four horses under the finish line.
The
2018 edition of Risen Star drew a field of 10 runners, including the top three
finishers from January’s contest. The trio is highlighted by the Jerry
Hollendorfer trained, Instilled Regard, who ships back to bayou country after
having returned home to California following his win in the Lecomte. Principe
Guilherme and Snapper Sinclair, the second and third-place finishers
respectively, both hail from the Steve Asmussen barn.
The
‘Coach,’ 82-year old Wayne Lukas, a
4-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer, is once again looking to make some noise
on the Derby road. He sends out a pair in Bravazo
and Kentucky Club. Both horses enter the Risen Star off a victory in their last
start. Lukas is a two-time winner of the Risen Star.
Of
course, what would a Derby prep be without a runner from trainer Todd Pletcher? The former Lukas disciple will saddle
undefeated, Noble Indy, who won by daylight in his seven-furlong maiden debut
in December, before taking an allowance race in his first two-turn start last
month.
A
second undefeated horse with only two starts that is looking to accumulate points is
Supreme Aura. The colt will be saddled by Michael Stidham who is among the
leading trainers at the meet.
Post
time is scheduled for 5:03 pm, local time.
PP
- HORSE/Jockey/Trainer
1
- HIGH NORTH/Lanerie/Cox--When last
seen in November, this colt beat more than half the field in the Kentucky
Jockey Club after overcoming a ton of early trouble to close from far back and
finish fourth. Works have been steady and solid, yet despite going out for a
trainer who has a very high winning percentage, this horse probably needs the
comeback race.
2
- NOBLE INDY/Velazquez/Pletcher—One of
many Derby hopefuls from the ‘Todd Squad.’
After dispatching maiden and allowance fields impressively at Gulfstream, this
race seems like the next logical spot to see if this talented colt is ready for
graded stakes. Take note: The recent winner of the Holy Bull was also a
Win-Star owned/Pletcher trained runner that was trying graded stakes for the
first time.
3
- GIVEMEAMINIT/Bridgmohan/Stewart--Had
graded stakes experience at two, with his best finish being a third-place in
the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. He was still a maiden until late
last month when he romped over state-breds.
Appears to produce his best form when going shorter.
4
- SNAPPER SINCLAIR/Beschizza/Asmussen--
He went back to the dirt for the Lecomte and certainly outran is 28-1 odds in
finishing third. This colt had the lead for a short time before being caught
and passed at the head of the stretch by the top two finishers. The performance
was a big-time improvement, so maybe things are beginning to come together for
him.
5
- INSTILLED REGARD/Castellano/Hollendorfer--The
Lecomte winner was much the best while drawing away late to win with authority.
Prior to that, he put in a strong effort
in the Los Al Futurity, losing by less than a length after getting bumped and
knocked around in the stretch run, before being placed second via dq. When you consider the results this colt has
produced, it’s apparent he has talent. Should be difficult to deny once again.
6
– SUPREME AURA/Bravo/Stidham--Undefeated
after two races and both wins came rather
handily. Has won over the track and his trainer is
having an excellent meet. Can he simultaneously step up and stretch out
successfully? That’s always a tough task for young horses to accomplish. At the
very least, his latest Bris speed figure fits in the mix.
7
– BRAVAZO/Stevens/Lukas—Last month,
after nearly a two-month break, he won his three-year-old
debut after coming out best in a stretch duel at Oaklawn Park. As a juvenile,
he was graded stakes placed when finishing second in the Breeders Futurity. The
winner of that affair most recently was runner-up in the Holy Bull Stakes, so this
colt is not without merit. Difficult task lies ahead here, but he’s progressing
in the right direction.
8
– KENTUCKY CLUB/Graham/Lukas--After
six starts, this colt finally broke into the win ledger. Was it the drop to maiden claiming company, or the sloppy going?
Maybe a little of both. His last effort produced his best Bris speed figure,
but that number pales in comparison to that of his rivals. Can’t see him having
any impact here.
9
– PRINCIPE GUILHERME/Geroux/Asmussen--Was
visually impressive winning his first two starts by a combined 17-lengths. Overcame
trouble in the Lecomte to get up for second.
Didn’t break well from post 12, got bumped pretty hard thereafter and was forced to take the scenic route. Was rated for
the first time while stepping up sharply in class. All that in just his third
career start. Drew wide again, so hopefully,
he can get a smoother trip. If he does, look out.
10-
EBBEN/Saez/Margolis--Another
returnee from the Lecomte, where he finished mid-pack following a wide trip
from a far outside post. He could suffer a similar fate here again. He did
record an amazing four-furlong drill (:47 1/5) last week, ‘best of 108 horses’
that worked at the distance. However, that alone won’t get it done. Appears
outclassed.
Analysis: This race comes down to Instilled
Regard and Principe Guilherme for the win. The former easily put away a Lecomte
field that featured a few stakes winners, with a powerful finish resulting in
an authoritative victory. There are no
stake winning rivals in this group. Instilled
Regard continues to progress with each start, and
his two preps have shown why he is currently among the top Kentucky Derby
contenders. He has the class and talent to get it done.
The
latter runner crushed the opposition in his first two starts before heading
into what was the toughest and deepest field he faced. Despite finishing
second, Principe Guilherme came through his ordeal with flying colors. He gained
valuable experience and is a much-improved
horse because of it. If he receives a better trip in this spot, he is a
legitimate threat to turn the tables on the Lecomte winner.
Wager: Since both horses are expected to be
well supported and the top two betting choices, there won’t be any value in
backing either in the win pool. However, I will put both horses in the top two
slots in superfectas with five others in the third and fourth positions.
I
will also box my top two choices in an exacta.
With
$100 Thorofan dollars, I’ll construct my wagers this way.
$1.00
Superfecta - 5,9/5,9/1,2,4,6,7/1,2,4,6,7 = $40 cost
$30.00
Exacta Box – 5,9 = $60 cost
Good
luck, and as always, enjoy the race.
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