Friday, October 27, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Fayette Stakes (G2)

Neolithic Ready for Fayette Stakes 

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Haggard Fayette Stakes – Grade II - $200K – One and One Eighth Miles

Should be quite a day in Lexington for the Fayette. Weather is forecast to be a high of 46°, 100% chance of rain ending in the afternoon and 5-10 mph winds from the NW. Might be a bit nippy.

Despite the weather outlook we have a short field of six older horses and a youngster going nine furlongs. All have proven ability to get a distance except #4- The Player who has shown good form as of late in the Ask Ack last month at Churchill.

For my money I’ll take the second choice #2- Neolithic who has seen the best of this past year’s top competition including Arrogate, Gun Runner, Shaman Ghost and a host of world class contenders. He’s had a rest since the Woodward and several good works which matches Preacher’s signature regime for a return to top form along with a new jockey.

#5- Honorable Duty is certainly a contender with four firsts and two seconds in his last six outings. Hard to argue with such success and I expect both the top choices will trying to measure a pace that might get wicked from their outside by #7- Malibu Pro and the middle by #4- The Player. I expect the later two to hang tough to the end and may get a piece given their jockeys’ styles.

Which brings me to #6- McCracken, the youngster, who should like a swift pace while tracking from mid-pack to finish. His best successes have come when he rallies after seven furlongs as he did in the Haskell.

The remaining runners don’t peak my interest except as fillers in the bottom of a Superfecta.

Betting for the race….
$5 Trifecta: 2,5 / 2,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,7 -  $60
$0.50 Superfecta: 2,5,6 / 2,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,7 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 -  $36

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