Handicapper's Corner: Zenyatta Stakes (G1)

Six Fillies Vie for BC Berth in Zenyatta Stakes

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The day of major west coast Breeders’ Cup preps at Santa Anita gets truly underway with the day’s fifth race, the Zenyatta Stakes.  The race is a Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.  But, even so, it lacks the flavor of so many of the classy distaff-division races out west: there’s no Stellar Wind, and there’s not even Vale Dori, who always seems to be there to nab the Grade 1 races that Stellar Wind decides to pass.

Instead, this year’s Zenyatta drew a field of six horses headlined by three-year-old Paradise Woods.  The big questions in the Zenyatta Stakes hinge on Paradise Woods: was her massive performance in the Santa Anita Oaks back in April a fluke?  Or, can she find that version again when she returns to Santa Anita, the course over which she has done her best running by far?

Let’s find out.

Race 5: Zenyatta Stakes (G1), three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 2:30pm PDT

Given her form at Santa Anita, even though it is her first try against older horses, it would be difficult to go against Paradise Woods if she looked to get an easy time on the front end.  Yes, she passed horses in her maiden win, but she passed...maidens.  She wired the Santa Anita Oaks, and last out in the Torrey Pines (G3), she was sunk after she broke poorly and did not strike the front.  Here?  Stretch-out sprinter Rockport Babe reliably shows front-end gas at one turn, making her almost certain to be a gadfly up front in this two-turn race.   

Yes, Paradise Woods is lightly enough raced and young enough to continue to show development, and it would not be a massive surprise to see her survive the front end and carry the day.  But, the price will almost certainly be underlaid, and it make sense to look elsewhere on top if there is a credible candidate.

Faithfully looks the most likely upsetter, and the more attractive win wager.  The four-year-old from the barn of Bob Baffert got the “third behind Stellar Wind and Vale Dori” medal in the Clement Hirsch (G1) two starts back, plenty of class to contend against this bunch.  Her record at Santa Anita is consistent, with two wins and three seconds in six tries, and she has three wins and two other money finishes going a mile and a sixteenth.   

It suffices to say this is Faithfully’s best distance.  Her speeds have taken a step forward through the summer, making her a clear best unless Paradise Woods runs back to her freakish top.  And, Faithfully has proven she can do a thing that Paradise Woods has not done yet: rate and rally reliably.

Of course, Faithfully will not be a real long shot; she’ll likely be the second betting choice behind Paradise Woods.  With Motown Lady an underneath type at best against these types, and Midnight Toast too slow without a massive step forward, it’s Shenandoah Queen who appeals most of anyone off the beaten path.   

The Mountaineer form lines from last year are a bit of a concern, since form from the Mountain so rarely translates elsewhere.  But Shenandoah Queen has won at Gulfstream and Del Mar since moving on from that circuit, and the very fact that she was privately acquired by connections as shrewd as owner Hronis Racing LLC and trainer John Sadler speaks volumes.   Though she was flat in her Del Mar debut, that came over turf – and then she returned to upset the Tranquility Lake Stakes on August 25, over the dirt.  That race had her stalking, dueling, and proving best – suggesting that she could get first run on the likes of Rockport Babe and Paradise Woods, and that she may have the guts to make the more lauded candidates at least have to work for it.

Selections:

#1 Faithfully

#4 Paradise Woods

#6 Shenandoah Queen

Handicapper's Corner: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

West Coast Invaders in the Pennsylvania Derby

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Pennsylvania Derby – Grade 1 - $1M – 1 and 1/8 Miles

The weather should be ideal for race day. 

We have a race that has many who have seen one another over the course of the three-year-old season. There is speed, speed and more speed in this one. I see several who like the front as was seen in the Haskell at Monmouth in July and the late closers or those that can track the pace to the stretch will take the prize. I will look for the one who can be versatile. #4 West Coast is the favorite and rightly so give his race record and performance at the Travers. He is the versatile guy to get it done for this one. It doesn’t hurt that the connections are a threat regardless of where they go to race. 

#5 Irap has been in the money in 75% of his races and the top money earner in the field. His last trip in the Travers looked good and maybe a trip that isn’t four wide and having to take hold for Gunevera’s bump and side-step move in the stretch might have seen a better finish. West Coast was much the best after Irap headed him in the turn to the stretch. I believe he has more to give at the shorter distance. My second pick.

#1 Timeline is a speedy fellow who was hampered during the Haskell more than once and in very tight at the rail in the turn going for home. If he gets on the lead with Javier aboard he could be very dangerous and if not winning he should hold on for some money. 

The remaining field has some interesting characters that will add some spice to the exotics. #8 Irish War Cry gets a new, old, jock who broke his maiden and followed with a second win. Lynch is a savvy rider who cannot be discounted and War Cry plays tough against others. Johnny V gets another chance to show his stuff aboard #2 Outplay with Mr. Pletcher working him well through August and September and the bloodlines say he’s stout. Carmouche (32% at this track) is on for #7 Game Over who has that late kick that can put him in the money. And I find #6 Talking Logistics a truly interesting longshot if the pace gets furious. Frankie Pennington brought him home for second in the Smarty Jones and we know Frankie knows his course.

#10 Giuseppe the Great, #3 Watch Me Whip and #9 Term of Art will have to step it up too much for me to put them on a ticket except at the bottom of the Superfecta.

Bets as I see it.

$3 Trifecta: 4 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,5,6,7,8    Total:  $60

$0.40 Superfecta: 4 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,8   Total:  $40

Handicapper's Corner: Kelso Stakes (G2)

Anticipate a Sharp Win in the Kelso

By: The Turk, Horses, Handicapping & Hijinks

   

Sharp Azteca- Jessie Holmes/Equisport Photos

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to begin by thanking The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today about Saturday's Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park.  I  appreciate my new readers and the rabid pack of hardcore degenerates that read my work regularly.

The Kelso will be a six horse affair.

Keep your eye on the scratches and changes as well as the track condition at this link.  Weather does not seem to be an issue and I would expect the track to be fast.

At first take I think the heavy chalk will be Sharp Azteca (pictured above).  Trained by Jorge Navaro with Paco Lopez up, this classy 4 YO Kentucky Bred Freud will become a millionaire the next time he hits the board, is 11 of 13 in the money lifetime, 6 of 6 in the money with 4 wins at the distance and has 9 Win-Place finishes in 11 starts on fast dirt.  Well rested and training very sharply since winning the Monmouth Cup G3 at 1 1/16 Miles by 7+ lengths it's concievable he draws off and no one catches him.

 I started fast and jumped ahead.  Let's take a step back and look at some of the other runners.

Let's Get after this!  

The Forego G1: 7f  on Fast Dirt at SAR  26 August

Four runners exit The Forego who chased Drefong.  Ross(Ire) was a non factor in the The Forego and I see no reason to make him a factor here.  Tom's Ready really came at the end and Divining Rod was gobbled up at the wire.

 The Polynesian $74K: 7F on sealed slop at LRL on 12 August  
Divining Rod over off track. Eh.  

Monmouth Cup G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt at MTH 30 July  
Sharp Azteca in a romp.  Not sure how I feel about the field but he fired well off The Met Mile.  

The Vanderbilt G1: 6F on Fast Dirt at SAR 29 July  
Bird Song.  Have to go back to early year efforts at Gulfstream to envision a win.

  Belmont Sprint G2: 7F on fast Dirt at BEL on 8 July
Tommy Macho- No match for Mind Your Biscuits.  

Met Mile G1:  1 Mile Fast Dirt at BEL on 10 June 2017  

Tom's Ready, Tommy Macho and Sharp Azteca.  I liked Tommy Macho's chase more than anything in this race.  No shame for Sharp Azteca on this day.

 What's it all add up to?
   

Sharp Azteca seemingly has the angles and has picked the right spot and avoided the right competition to add a win to his already impressive credentials.  While anything can happen on any day (blah blah blah ....fill in the blank CYA handicapper stuff) I'm going to single Sharp Azteca in my base handicap and look for a vertical betting opportunity if it presents itself, otherwise I'll stick to the horizontal Pick 3 that has potential with Race 7 a 12 horse field MSW $75K and Race 8 a 12 horse field N1X $90K.

The morning line placed Divining Rod second at 2-1 but I like Tommy Macho here.  The Pompa runner for Trainer Pletcher is 5 of 6 imn the money at Belmont, 5 of 6 at the distance, fired off a 105 career Beyer this calendar year, set a 101 in a good chase of the front running Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca in the Met Mile, and I don't think the differences in current form justify the spread in values between Tommy Macho and Divining Rod. 

So what of Diving Rod? Two starts in 2017 including a lack luster Forego and a win over no one at Laurel Park over sealed slop.  I loved his game beat by head in the Cigar Mile but that was a year ago, the fourth effort in three month stretch and he built towards that.  I like the horse, respect the connections, but if looking for value, I'm, shading him into Show or Exotic on the ticket.  

Tom's Ready can hit the board anywhere from Win to 4th.  Not overly fast, he does have tactical speed and a late turn of foot, but I think he'll be too far back to rally to Win, but rally onto the board not unrealistic.

Bird Song is a bit of a wild card.  He was no match at 6f  in The Vanderbilt.  He was no match to Tommy Macho in the Hal's Hope in early 2017.  

Ross (Ire) seems to be entered in the wrong race.

If you're compelled to bet this race, and you feel like I do that Sharp Azteca will win, you could try this:

$1 Super:  5 OVER 2-4 OVER 2-4-1 OVER 1-2-6 for $7.  It's not a big commitment and avoids a big bet and poor risk/reward.

If you feel that Sharp Azteca is vulnerable, and let's be real, this is a Grade 2 and no one here is invulnerable then possibly try $1 Super: 5-2-4 OVER 5-2-4 OVER 1-2-4 OVER 1-2-6 for $16.

OR....if you like high risk/high reward...

$1 Super:  2 Over 5-4 OVER 5-4-1 OVER 1-4-6 for $7.

I think that extinguishes my current thoughts on this edition of The Kelso. Whatever you do, have fun, keep the betting real, don't lie to yourself about your losses, and don't waste money on other people's thoughts.

Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (G1)

Value Plays in the Northern Dancer Stakes

By: Robert Marks, They're in the Gate (and on Twitter @theyreinthegate)

The Northern Dancer Turf Stakes is a Saturday 9/16/17 held at Woodbine racetrack in Toronto, Ontario in mid-September. A Grade I event with a current purse of C$300,000, it is run at a distance of  1 ¹⁄₂ miles on Woodbine's E. P. Taylor turf course. We have a small field of horses with one big favorite.

Here are the participants listed by Post Positions, Horse, Jockey and odds:

1. English Illusion, Eurico Rosa Da Silva, 20-1

2. Camp Creek, Manuel Hernandez, 20-1

3. Noble Thought, Patrick Husbands, 5-1

4. Messi, Jose Ortiz, 4-1

5. Pumpkin Rumble, Jesse Campbell 12-1

6. Seeking Albert, David Moran 15-1

7 Johnny Bear, Luis Contreras 15-1

8 Hawkbill Colm O’Donoghue 3-5

Here is who we like

Hawkbill- The clear class of the field here-this horse sired by Kitten’s Joy, he comes across the big pond looking pretty impressive with a lot of black type races and wins in his ledger. He likes to run in the front and I don’t see anyone catching him. Our rule is not too bet a short odds horse in a short field so we will try to hit the trifecta looking for 2 horses with value.

Johnny Bear- -This horse has won here at same distance on August 30^th in the Halton Stakes for Canadian Breds. We always like a horse and jockey that know the turf course and the distance. If anyone can pass the favorite late, it’s a horse and jock that have been there before. Never count out a horse’s memory.  

Camp Creek-This light raced 4-year-old did run this same race last year, finishing 6^th. Has only 1 win in 8 starts, but that one win did come at Woodbine in last year’s Breeders Stakes. He hasn’t raced since May, that being at 1 ¼ miles at Belmont Park. But he has looked good at workouts and could clunk up to grab a piece of the exotics.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Box: $20 Exacta Box ($20)

1,7

Trifecta ($10 Box for $60 Total)

1,2,7

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!  a