Friday, July 7, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Belmont Oaks Inv. (G1)

Belmont Oaks: Brown's Quartet Ready to Run

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan 

Welcome to the Chad Brown Invitational. Not only does Brown have four fillies entered, but he has won the Belmont Oaks Invitational 4 of the past 5 years. Twelve three year old fillies will go to the post:  

1) Coasted...can run a big one as evidence by her second in the Breeders Cup last fall, but seems a step below the top fillies in here. Trainer is 0-20 in graded stakes this year.  

2) Beau Recall...west coast invader has to be thrilled not lining up against Sircat Sally as that one has had her number each of the past three starts. Nothing against Prat but find it interesting that Talamo doesn't come with her for a run at a million dollar purse. 

 3) Violet Blue...big step up from MSW to a Grade I. The distance seems to fit but wrong race.  

4) Grizzel...winner of two straight but the class jump and added distance don't looking promising. 

5) Key To My Heart...comes in from Ireland for Aidan O'Brien who is one of the best in race. Some give in the ground may help but not for our top spot. 

6) Journey Home...well bred filly should enjoy the extra distance presented her but she just doesn't look fast enough.  

7) connections all around and working well but would be surprised to see this one being the best of the Brown runners. 

8) New Money Honey...nothing wrong with the title Breeders Cup Champion next to your name. Appears to be ready to make her presence felt. 2 for 2 on the Belmont green.  

9) Dynatail....should be on the lead, but I project she will have company to keep her honest.  

10) Fifty Five...Solid New York Bred will be in the mix coming for home but don't think the last 1/8 of a mile will be kind to her.  

11) Daddys Lil Darling...improving and appears by the recent morning runs to be ready for a big one. The questions are the surface and the distance.  

12) Sistercharlie....The French import for Brown appears to be a good one. Should get the distance but the question is will she take to the Belmont green. 

Projecting a faster pace than most forecasters, that is if the course stays on the firm side. #8 New Money Honey appears to be the best of the Brown fillies, with #12 Sistercharlie next, followed by #7 Uni and #10 Fifty Five. So the winner has to come from that group correct? 
Most likely it will, but we are going to take a flyer with #11 Daddys Lil Darling. While there are the surface and distance questions, her last effort was huge. She seems to be a filly on the improve and we know when McPeek has one ready he will find a good spot for them to have a chance to succeed even though it may look as he is reaching to high (ie Golden Ticket's Travers win).

The Play: $30 Win #11 $40 Place #11 $1 Tri 11/7-8-12/2-5-6-7-8-10-12 ($18) $1 Tri 7-8-12/11/2-5-6-7-8-10-12 ($18) Total Wager $106 

Have A Day!

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