Handicapper's Corner: 2020 LeComte Stakes (G3)

Halo, it's LeComte time again!

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The LeComte Stakes, the first in the series of Kentucky Derby prep races at Fair Grounds, will be run for the 76th time this year.  A Grade 3 since 2003, the race has been run at distances from a mile to a mile and an eighth; it currently covers a mile and a sixteenth.  This year’s renewal drew a field of fourteen to compete for a $200,000 purse, in addition to Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1) for the top four finishers.

LeComte, by Boston out of the mare Reel, is best remembered as the only horse to defeat the mighty Lexington.  On April 8, 1854, LeComte beat Lexington in two straight four-mile heats, and set a new four-mile record of 7 minutes, 26 seconds. LeComte is not the only horse out of his dam Reel who is still remembered with a present-day stakes: such an honor also belongs to his half-sister Prioress, by Sovereign.  Racing from ages two through seven, Prioress was the first American-bred and American-owned horse to win in England, and still has a three-year-old fillies' sprint run in her honour at Saratoga.

Though no winner of the LeComte has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, two of its recent winners have gone on to win the Preakness Stakes: Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019).  Several other LeComte victors have gone on to Classic placings: No Le Hace (1972) finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, Linkage (1982) finished second in the Preakness, and Hard Spun (2007) finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness.

Race 13: LeComte Stakes (G3), three-year-olds, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 5:55pm CST

 

As so often happens with early-season three-year-old preps, the field for the LeComte drew a blend of proven stakes horses and runners who are stepping up from lower-profile spots to the big time.  Among the proven, Scabbard comes in as the class of the group.  Though he has yet to win in stakes company, he has yet to run a poor race in stakes company, either.  He won on debut in a sprint at Churchill Downs last June and has emerged as a late-running sort who will reliably mount a run.  He rallied for second in the Saratoga Special (G2), second in the Iroquois, (G3), and then ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). 

Scabbard will be pleased to see all the speed drawn into the race: Sycamore Run, Shashashakemeup, and Perfect Star are likely to go, and it’s hard to imagine Mr. Monomoy, Bango, or Lynn’s Map too far off the pace, either.  So, assuming there isn’t some rampant speed bias on LeComte day, Scabbard stands to get the right trip.  But, as the likely favorite, even lukewarm as that favoritism may be, it still seems prudent to look beyond Scabbard’s class and wonder whether there are any logical alternatives, since he hasn’t gotten all the way there since a maiden race fairly early in the juvenile season.

Trainer Steve Asmussen mounts a three-pronged attack with Excession, Silver State, and Halo Again.  Excession comes out of the same first-level allowance race as Lynn’s Map and Mr. Monomoy, having crossed the wire third behind that pair.  He can pass horses and he can get the trip, though with six starts underneath him?  He has talent but may not have quite as much upside as some other runners have.  In short, he is the least intriguing card in Asmussen’s hand.

Lightly-raced Silver State will probably be the shortest price of the Asmussen bunch, but is a lightly-raced colt with plenty of upside.  He dead-heated for the win debut in a six-and-a-half-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill, almost ten lengths clear of the third-place horse: Bango, who he faces again in this.  The horse with whom he dead heated, Relentless Dancer, came back to dismantle the field in a Louisiana-bred stakes.  Silver State then handled the stretch to a mile with aplomb, tracking a couple of lengths off the pace in a first-level allowance over that same course and missing in a head-bobber.  Both races came back suitably fast.  He has the pedigree to handle the step up to two turns, being by Hard Spun out of an Empire Maker mare who has produced some two-turn form among her foals.  And, with all the speed in the race, Silver State should be able to sit a good trip far enough off the speed not to get burned up, but not so far back that he has too much to do.

But, in a field of fourteen fast-developing three-year-olds?  If you find the right price horse with whom to take a shot, take that shot.  This maxim brings us to the longest-priced of the Asmussen trio on the morning line, Halo Again.  He is the only one in the LeComte field cutting back in trip; in his most recent start, on November 23, he won the nine-furlong Coronation Futurity by a head.  This is a tougher race, of course: he beat Canadian-breds on Tapeta in the Coronation Futurity, and this is an open stakes on dirt.  But his maiden win came in a Churchill maiden special on the dirt, so this won’t be his first foray on dirt or against well-meant open horses.  He stands to get a better setup than in the Coronation Futurity, too.  That day, he tracked an uncontested leader while sitting inside a horse who was rank early, got shuffled back through the turn, and came back again up the fence to win.  In the LeComte, there should be a sharper pace for him to reel in, and even though this is a bigger field it’s a positive that Halo Again knows how to get through traffic.  He will have to take a step forward, but he has a solid foundation and stands to be a great price.

Selections:

#7 Halo Again (15/1)

#9 Silver State (5/1)

#4 Scabbard (7/2)

Longshot:  There are a couple of credible closers who deserve a mention.  Enforceable comes out of the Kentucky Jockey Club, and looks to have found his home at two turns on the dirt.  But he stands to be a shorter price than some others, and appeals more underneath than on top.  With that, what about the one who stands to be a longer price, and actually beat Enforceable that day at Churchill?  #1 Finnick the Fierce (15/1) took a huge step forward when he ran second behind Silver Prospector in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and may have to prove that his move forward meant he was actually improving, and wasn’t a question of him being some kind of a slop monster.  (As of Thursday afternoon, the chances for rain at Fair Grounds on Saturday are not zero, but are no sure thing, either.)  But, there’s also the chance that at least part of what moved Finnick the Fierce forward was the fact that he was stretching out to a route for the first time.   It’s not clear that his pedigree will take him much longer than a mile and a sixteenth – but we’re not trying to handicap the Derby, we’re trying the handicap the LeComte, and the LeComte is a mile and a sixteenth.  Finnick the Fierce should get a sharp pace to rally into and can sweeten the exotics once again.

  

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Marshua's River Stakes (G3)

Munchkin's Marshua's River Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Marshua’s River Stakes (GIII) is the eighth race on Saturday’s card and offers a good field of fillies and mares with 4-year-olds being the youngest and a 7-year-old the oldest. 

Most have been off for a number of weeks suggesting they are ready to begin their 2020 campaign.  All have shown ability to traverse the 8.5-furlong turf course. However, none have won at this level. Magic Star, the Chad Brown filly that cost the owners $500,000 at Keeneland 2017 sale, needs to show that her big win last August in Saratoga was not a fluke. 

This a competitive race that could surprise.

Here is the field:

1.  Malkia (Animal Kingdom) is making a big jump in company. Not likely will she be a factor in this race. Maybe another day.

2.  Piece by Peace (Declaration of War) picks-up a top jockey John Velazquez. Last two races suggest she can handle the grade three company. Distance may be her only weak point this field. May be in the money.

3.  Magic Star (Scat Daddy) Looked like a special horse last August in Saratoga. But was no challenge for the field in her fall attempt. She has been off since that race (77 days) and may need one before she is really ready. Need to be cautious with this one. 

4.  Sweet Bye and Bye (Sky Mesa) is a home bred that has shown she can handle this level on the turf. She performs nicely on the lead or from off the pace. Last race was disappointing, although it could have been a function of a year of too many races. With six week of rest she should be a contender.

5.  Andina Del Sur (Giant Causeway) is another home bred that is well suited for this race, especially if the pace is heated. She shows that she does her best running late. Javier Castellano returns as her jockey when last time she upset the favorite, Sweet Bye and Bye, who is back for revenge.

6.  Maroubra (Lawman - FR) has a lot to prove, but she has a couple of things going for her. Her French breeding and early races prove the turf and distance will not be a problem. She is conditioned by Cherie De Vaux who learned her craft of training turf horses under the tutelage of none other than the master, Chad Brown. Could surprise for a piece.

7.  Munchkin Money (Freud) has solid turf credentials passed down by her sire, Freud. Although she has not run in grade three company, she has competed in races with serious purses and done well. She has 2 wins in 3 starts over the Gulfstream turf. Tyler Gaffalione who is very familiar with Gulfstream Park courses, picks up the mount. A little improvement over her performance in the Yaddo Stakes in Saratoga could put her in the Winner’s Circle.

The pace should be honest with a couple having early speed. However, the race should really get exciting as they turn for home. Velazquez on Piece by Peace will be trying to go wire-to-wire, if she can handle the last half furlong. Andina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye will be blasting at the end and will be too much for Piece by Peace. The old girl at 7, Munchkin Money, will be guided perfectly by Gaffalione to a three-way finish. 

Here is how the race should finish:

1.  Munchkin Money (#7)

2.  Andina Del Sur (#5)

3.  Sweet Bye and Bye (#4)

4.  Maroubra- FR (#6)

Handigamble:

$20 to win on # 7 (Munchkin Money)

$40 to place on #7 (Munchkin Money)

$1 Trifecta Box --#7/#5/#4/#6

$5 Exacta Part-Wheel #7 over #5/#4/#6

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Sham Stakes (G3)

Baffert v. Baltas in Sham Stakes

By: Laurie Ross

 

The Sham Stakes (G3) named in honor of the 1973 underdog who shadowed Secretariat through the Triple Crown series, is the first step on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail this year for 3-year-old colts.  The one-mile event is a Kentucky Derby qualifier, awarding points to the top four finishers. 

Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville. 

A condylar fracture took last year’s Sham winner Gunmetal Gray off the Triple Crown trail, and he’s currently recovering. 2018 Sham winner McKinzie missed the Kentucky Derby and evolved into a 1 1/8-mile specialist. 2017 Sham winner Gormley captured the 2017 Santa Anita Derby, but placed ninth in the Kentucky Derby, and 2016 Sham victor Collected missed the Derby, but evolved into a good handicap horse. 

This year, six 3-year-old colts will run a mile over the Santa Anita main track. 

The Top Trio

Bob Baffert has conditioned three of the last six Sham Stakes winners. This year, he sends out a pair of last-out maiden winners, Azul Coast and Authentic.

AZUL COAST (Super Saver - Sky Treasure, by Sky Mesa) had a six-wide trip the entire way in a one-mile maiden event over a sloppy Los Alamitos track, but was impressive, winning easily under a hand ride by four lengths, Drayden Van Dyke never touching the whip at any point. Azul Coast owns the highest late-pace speed figure in the field. 

Azul Coast has a miler/middle distance pedigree, and could wind up on turf later in his career, as the blacktype earners in his female family did their best over turf and Woodbine’s Polytrack. Azul Coast is the first foal out of the Grade 2-winning turf miler, Sky Treasure. She’s a half-sister Grade 3-winning turf miler Surgical Strike. Last year’s Grey Stakes winner Chapalu is out of a half-sister to Sky Treasure.  Azul Coast’s third dam Bold Ruritana was 1995 Canadian Champion Older Mare and Champion Turf Female.

The “other” Baffert horse AUTHENTIC (Into Mischief - Flawless, by Mr. Greeley),  had an awkward start in his debut but quickly jumped into contention, pressing the pace before taking over in the stretch and winning the 5 1/2 furlong race by 1 1/2 lengths.  The Baffert trainee tuned up for the Sham with a second to last 5F :59.80 bullet. Drayden Van Dyke rode Authentic in his debut, but sticks with Azul Coast while Joel Rosario takes over. 

Authentic has a humble miler pedigree. His dam Flawless won at seven furlongs, and placed in her only other start at a mile, and she’s only one of two foals to race out of an unraced dam. The third generation of Authentic’s female family includes three stakes-placed runners.

Richard Baltas also sends out a pair of Sham contenders. 

Breaking from the far outside, TAISHAN (Twirling Candy - Grace Phil, by Philanthropist) showed his fondness for Santa Anita with a one-length victory in his second start. The Richard Baltas trainee was green down the stretch, lugging in from the whip, and hesitating before passing Tizamagician, a later-maturing Tiznow colt.  Once past his rival, Taishan regained confidence and cleared late to win by a length. Taishan’s speed figure increased from his first to second start, always a good sign.

Taishan has a miler/middle distance pedigree. There’s little blacktype in his family, although his dam is a Canadian stakes winner over turf and Polytrack.  

Sure, UNCAPTURED HERO (Uncaptured - Nifty Shindig, by Mr. Greeley) won a maiden claiming event, but it was a $100,000 claimer at Del Mar, closer to a maiden special. This is one game colt. He was head ‘n head the entire race, shoulder to shoulder, even bumping a few times. Uncaptured Hero stuck his head in front a few strides from the wire. 

Uncaptured Hero has a miler pedigree. Class skips to the third generation of his female family, where we find Dubai Golden Shaheen hero, and tough competitor Caller One. 

Looking for an Upset

ZIMBA WARRIOR (Khozan - Slick and True, by Yes It's True) is the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He’s only stood in the winner’s circle once but has placed third three times. The Keith Desormeaux trainee was last seen finishing a distant third behind High Velocity in the Bob Hope Stakes. Zimba Warrior owns the second-highest late-pace speed figure in the field.

Zimba Warrior has a sprinter/miler pedigree and is a member of the same family as super filly Songbird. 

SCORING (Justin Phillip - High Heeled Hope, by Salt Lake) hasn’t seen competition since June. He was in contention the entire race and finished a head behind the winner, Cal’s Gem. That one bore out from the whip, squeezing the third-place horse, who was making a move between horses. Scoring was awarded the victory through DQ.  

Scoring has a sprinter/miler pedigree. He’s a full brother to Grade 3 winning sprinter Lady T N T, plus a half brother to Sweet Hope, a Grade 3 winning sprinter who placed in the Test (G1). Scoring’s dam High Heeled Hope is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter and placed in the Hollywood Starlet and Las Virgenes. 

Selections:

 Simplistically, the race boils down to Baffert vs. Baltas. Three colts may vie for the lead – Authentic on the rail, Uncaptured Hero and Scoring, although the latter could probably rate. Zimba Warrior and Taishan can settle right behind the pace, along with Azul Coast.  

#1 AUTHENTIC (8/5)

#6 TAISHAN (5/2)

#3 UNCAPTURED HERO (6/1)

Handigambling:

Six-horse fields don’t offer a lot of options. 

$100 virtual ThoroFan currency

$4.00 Super box - #1, #3, #4 #6 = $96.00