There will be a Rainbow and Pot of Gold at the End of this Muddy Ruffian Stakes
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman
Some say Ruffian was the greatest
racehorse ever to run. From May 21, 1974 to June 22, 1975 she ran in ten races
and always found herself in the Winner’s Circle. The one time she didn’t she
broke down and didn’t finish the race. The ten race string included eight
graded races including the Acorn Stakes (GI), the Mother Goose Stakes (GI) and
the Coaching Club American Oaks Stakes (GI) which earned her the 1975 Triple
Tiara ---- a triple crown feat for fillies. It is easy to see that a race for
fillies and mares would bear her name.
This weekend will be the 42nd
running of the Ruffian Stakes inaugurated in 1976, the year after she died.
Like last weekend’s Derby heavy rain is predicted for Saturday at Belmont Park.
Rain is forecasted beginning at 6:00 a.m. and raining progressively harder
through the day. So our handicapping
needs to factor this muddy track variable into our equation.
Some great horses have won this race;
among them are Lady Secret (Twice- 1985-86), Bayakoa (1989), Sky Beauty (1994)
and Cavorting (2016). Although this year’s race lacks that level of talent, it
is an evenly matched race. Here is the field for 2017 Ruffian Stakes:
1. High Ridge Road (Quality Road) is the
Morning Line favorite with a nice win in the grade one Barbara Fritchie at
Laurel Park while pulling away in the 7 furlong race. Jockey change to Jose
Ortiz is a positive move. Linda Rice has a 23% win rate with Jose up. Distance
should not be problem. She is a legitimate favorite, but not the likely winner.
2. Verve’s Tale (Tale of Ekati) has not
yet won a grade two race, but performed well at the grade three level. Has some
difficulty finishing over a wet track, but worked a bullet in the mud at
Belmont in April. Although not the fastest out of the gate, she likes the lead
when she can get it. With serious improvement expected, she is an upset possibility.
3. Highway Star (Girolamo) has won two
grade three stakes races and is working nicely for this race. She is 3 for 3
over the Belmont Park surface earning her “horse-for-course” status. She won
her only mud race, although it was at the Maiden Special level a year ago. She
will be a factor.
4. Indulgent (Bernardini) has yet to win a
graded race with no experience over the wet going. She is the main early speed,
but may have a distance problem. She has yet to try a muddy track. She is not a
likely threat.
5. Bar of Gold (Medaglia d’Oro) has
performed well at lower graded levels. She now tries the grade one company.
Return to jockey Rosario is a positive. With a 5 for 5 win ratio over a muddy
track this lady will be doing the rain dance all Friday night long. She will be
dangerous in the stretch, if she can get her footings.
Verve’s Tale is likely to take
the lead down the backstretch in this one-turn-mile race. She may be speedy
enough with the skillful guiding by Paco Lopez to keep it all the way. Her running style on a muddy track offers two
problems for the other four ---splash-back and closing traction. The small
field may mitigate against the former, but perhaps not the latter. She could be
pressed by the favorite, High Ridge Road.
However, depending on the amount rain that falls, the rail may be the
last place to be. Highway Star could stay close, clear of splash back and
attack in the stretch. If Bar of Gold
can replicate her effort over the muddy Belmont track on October 16th
she will be the one most likely to win.
All in all, Verve tale will be up
front for most of the race while being pressed by High Ridge Road and Highway
Star through three-quarters. As they enter the stretch, Verve’s Tale with a
clean face should be leading. However, Rosario should guide Bar of Gold into contention
and make a move ---the winning move.
Here is how the race should
finish:
1.
Bar of Gold (5)
2.
Verve’s Tale (2)
3.
Highway Star (3)
4.
High Ridge Road (1)
Handigamble ($100)
$20 to win on Bar of Gold (5) --- ($20 wager)
$10 Exacta Box: Verve’s Tale (2), Highway Star (3) and Bar of Gold (5)
--- ($60 wager)
$10 Exacta Box: Verve’s Tale (2) and Bar of Gold (5) ---($20 wager)
Gold Luck, but keep the day job.
