Handicapper's Corner: Ruffian Stakes (G2)

There will be a Rainbow and Pot of Gold at the End of this Muddy Ruffian Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

 

Some say Ruffian was the greatest racehorse ever to run. From May 21, 1974 to June 22, 1975 she ran in ten races and always found herself in the Winner’s Circle. The one time she didn’t she broke down and didn’t finish the race. The ten race string included eight graded races including the Acorn Stakes (GI), the Mother Goose Stakes (GI) and the Coaching Club American Oaks Stakes (GI) which earned her the 1975 Triple Tiara ---- a triple crown feat for fillies. It is easy to see that a race for fillies and mares would bear her name.

This weekend will be the 42^nd running of the Ruffian Stakes inaugurated in 1976, the year after she died. Like last weekend’s Derby heavy rain is predicted for Saturday at Belmont Park. Rain is forecasted beginning at 6:00 a.m. and raining progressively harder through the day.  So our handicapping needs to factor this muddy track variable into our equation.

Some great horses have won this race; among them are Lady Secret (Twice- 1985-86), Bayakoa (1989), Sky Beauty (1994) and Cavorting (2016). Although this year’s race lacks that level of talent, it is an evenly matched race. Here is the field for 2017 Ruffian Stakes:

    1.   High Ridge Road (Quality Road) is the Morning Line favorite with a nice win in the grade one Barbara Fritchie at Laurel Park while pulling away in the 7 furlong race. Jockey change to Jose Ortiz is a positive move. Linda Rice has a 23% win rate with Jose up. Distance should not be problem. She is a legitimate favorite, but not the likely winner.

    2.   Verve’s Tale (Tale of Ekati) has not yet won a grade two race, but performed well at the grade three level. Has some difficulty finishing over a wet track, but worked a bullet in the mud at Belmont in April. Although not the fastest out of the gate, she likes the lead when she can get it. With serious improvement expected, she is an upset possibility.

   3. Highway Star (Girolamo) has won two grade three stakes races and is working nicely for this race. She is 3 for 3 over the Belmont Park surface earning her “horse-for-course” status. She won her only mud race, although it was at the Maiden Special level a year ago. She will be a factor.

    4.   Indulgent (Bernardini) has yet to win a graded race with no experience over the wet going. She is the main early speed, but may have a distance problem. She has yet to try a muddy track. She is not a likely threat.

    5.   Bar of Gold (Medaglia d’Oro) has performed well at lower graded levels. She now tries the grade one company. Return to jockey Rosario is a positive. With a 5 for 5 win ratio over a muddy track this lady will be doing the rain dance all Friday night long. She will be dangerous in the stretch, if she can get her footings.

Verve’s Tale is likely to take the lead down the backstretch in this one-turn-mile race. She may be speedy enough with the skillful guiding by Paco Lopez to keep it all the way.  Her running style on a muddy track offers two problems for the other four ---splash-back and closing traction. The small field may mitigate against the former, but perhaps not the latter. She could be pressed by the favorite, High Ridge Road.  However, depending on the amount rain that falls, the rail may be the last place to be. Highway Star could stay close, clear of splash back and attack in the stretch.  If Bar of Gold can replicate her effort over the muddy Belmont track on October 16^th she will be the one most likely to win.

All in all, Verve tale will be up front for most of the race while being pressed by High Ridge Road and Highway Star through three-quarters. As they enter the stretch, Verve’s Tale with a clean face should be leading. However, Rosario should guide Bar of Gold into contention and make a move ---the winning move.

Here is how the race should finish:

    1.   Bar of Gold (5)

    2.   Verve’s Tale (2)

    3.   Highway Star (3)

    4.   High Ridge Road (1)

Handigamble ($100)

$20 to win on Bar of Gold (5) --- ($20 wager)

$10 Exacta Box: Verve’s Tale (2), Highway Star (3) and Bar of Gold (5) --- ($60 wager)

$10 Exacta Box: Verve’s Tale (2) and Bar of Gold (5) ---($20 wager)

Gold Luck, but keep the day job.

  

Handicapper's Corner: Ruffian Stakes (G1)

Six Fillies Honor the Memory of Ruffian

By: The Turk

Ruffian

Thank you to the wonderful people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts today on the Grade 2 Ruffian, a 1 mile dirt race at Belmont Park for Fillies and Mares, 4 years old and up. My first race track romance was with Ruffian.

As a young boy, like many boys my age in an era before instant information, we waited every week for our copies of Sports Illustrated to arrive by mail.  I never saw Ruffian run, but I read about her, was captivated by her, and ultimately horrified at her sudden and gruesome death.

I'm still not, some 40 years later, able to think about Ruffian without getting emotional.  Her death, like the death of George Washington and Tuscan Evening, resonated with me at a very deep level, the level in my soul that makes me a fan and lover of these animals and not someone who can purely think of them as a post position and a price.  It's a beautiful and cruel sport all wrapped into one.

I'm not embarrassed to say I'm not really a very good blogger.  The Turk is celebrating his 8th year of hack handicapping and poorly written sentences, and my traffic in 8 years is about the traffic the good blogs get over a Breeders' Cup weekend.  No matter, I love talking about the horses and my ROI speaks for me when I can't string the words together properly.

I wish I had the time, and talent to write like this piece I found about Ruffian.  This  blog entry at The Vault: Horse Racing Past and Present is  real writer's articulate retrospective on one of the finest race horses ever.    As promised, I'm getting emotional talking about Ruffian, and I'll shut up now and get back to the business at hand! Rest in Peace Ruffian and Trainer Frank Whiteley Jr.

I wish there was more business to be at hand.  Today we have a 6 horse field and you could make a legitimate case for 5 horses to win this race.  While it's a wonderful field, I just wish it was more than six horses.  As a race track investor, the reward must be worth the risk, and I can find much easier marks on any card on any day of the week than this race.  That said, I like to handicap and assemble bets, and while I may not ultimately play it, I follow the same consistent steps for every two part handicap/bet construction and I have found that it is that consistent approach to interpreting the past performances and the race charts that brings me success.

Let's get after it!

Right off the bat, keep your eyes on the weather.  It's going to pour on Friday and maybe it will dry out by Saturday for a very fast track.  If it goes sloppy, our field has 7 total wet starts, with 2 wins both by Carrumba, so that may change thinking slightly at post time.Our field has a top Beyer of 100 by Cavorting with a variance of (16) Beyer points down to our toss horse, Welcome Aboard.  The Beyer didn't toss the 6 year old, her wretched 5 year old campaign did.

I think Carrumba is the logical choice: 3 wins in last four starts, in the money in all 7 lifetime starts, 2 wins at the distance, 2 wins in 2 tries on off track, 2 wins in 3 starts at BEL, a Grade 3 winner, the Phipps Stable (Barbara Phipps-Janney, owner of Ruffian) runner looks the part of pure class.

I like Spelling Again as a contrarian choice;  owned by Buffalo Sabres Hockey Hall of Fame member and one of the true gentleman of our era.  She'll be near the front and looking to fire off of speed.  I'm not sure the pace scenario will set up for her, but I like this mare quite a bit.

 Cavorting makes another excellent argument for the Win.  Her last four starts she's been stretching out at the 7 furlong wire, and the 1 panel extra distance may just be what she wants.  She runs against Grade 1 caliber horses consistently and she has a Grade 1 win.  No wins yet at the distance for the 4 YO, 2 wins at BEL, and she had much success at Saratoga last year, something I generally dismiss.  5 wins in 10 starts.  

Include Betty is also a graded stakes regular and Grade 2 winner.  Trainer Proctor is 19% off a 61-180 day layoff, I think she needs another start after this.

There is nothing to dislike about Calamity Kate, you just can't cover them all and the Yes It's True 4 YO with Johnny V up fell off my list a bit.  She seems to still not be able to rate very well and with a cut back in distance I think the thought is to steal the race from the front and hold on.  I'm not sure, its very possible.

As you can see, this is a jam packed quality field. Be careful in a race like this over covering and over investing.  Calamity Kate, Spelling Again and Welcome Aboard will have big prices come post time. If you need action, play Calamity Kate and Spelling Again to Win or Place, or toss them into an exacta box on top of Cavorting and Carrumba.