One morning I was at the Oklahoma Track at Saratoga to watch
Rachel Alexandra work. She was working for her upcoming race, The Woodward
Stakes (GI), against older horses.
I knew I was about to see a great Thoroughbred work. When
she passed me, there was silence and it appeared none of her four feet were
touching the ground. It looked like she was flying. It created an indelible imprint
on my mind.
This weekend’s race has attracted seven 3-year-old fillies
running 8.5 furlongs for a share of the $300,000 purse. It is also a prep for
the Kentucky Oaks. The forecast looks for a rainy weekend, which may cause a
number of scratches.
Let’s look at the field.
1.Anonima
(Sharp Azteca) She is trying graded company for the first time. She comes out of
a solid win in a $100,000 race. Trainer McPeek brings in Jose Ortiz to ride
her. Her regular jockey, Brian Hernandez, goes to McPeek’s other entry, Gowells
Delight. Maybe a sign of who McPeek thinks is the better horse for this
race.
2.Good
Cheer (Medaglia d’Oro) She is the Morning Line favorite following
her win in grade two race last November. Working bullet. Coincidentally, she is
sired by the same sire as Rachel Alexandra. She showed an impressive
performance, 17 length win on a sloppy Churchill Downs track. An off-track
may be to her advantage.
3.Ballerina
d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro) Another offspring of Rachel Alexandra who
started her career on the turf.She lost
her first dirt race by a length. Trainer Chad Brown replaces Jockey Dylan Davis,
who rode her in that race with Flavian Prat. A sign?
4.Gowells
Delight (Practical Joke) Opened 2025 in a $300,000 race, but a
traffic problem took her out of the race. Should do better this time. Not
sure if she is fast enough, even on her best day, to compete here.
5.Aledean
( Game Winner) Bought at Keenland September 2023 yearling sale for $600,000.
Won her 2025 debut closing on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds. Trying graded
company for the first time. May not be fast enough for this field. But the off-track
may help.
6.Simply
Joking (Practical Joke) Comes into this race as the likely pacesetter.
The last win was on a sloppy Fair Grounds track. This will be her first venture
to graded company. She is fast enough to compete. Has home track advantage
coupled with the possibility of an off-track.
7.Bless
the Broken (Laoban) Last December, she tried grade three company but
lacked rally in the stretch. This January she came close in the Silver Bullet
Day Stakes over a sloppy Fair Grounds Track.
Analysis
The big question for this race will be the condition of the
track at post time. The forecast suggests the track could be sloppy. There
should be limited pace in the race, making it hard for closers, especially if
the track is sloppy.
The $250,000 Bayakoa
Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday attracted a competitive group of fillies and
mares 4-year-olds and older.
The Grade 3 contest is
held in honor of the Argentinian-bred Bayakoa, conditioned by Hall of Fame
trainer Ron McAnally and became a two-time champion older mare in 1989 and 1990.
Among her many achievements were back-to-back victories in the Breeders’ Cup
Distaff when she was five and six.
A prep for the Grade 1 Apple
Blossom Stakes in April, The Bayakoa is spotlighted as race 9 of ten with a
4:25 PM CT post time over a fast track.
Making her third start
off the layoff, Corningstone hopes to be the first mare to complete a
sweep of the Mistletoe, Pippin and Bayakoa Stakes. The Ken McPeek trainee is a
model of consistency and hasn’t finished off the board since last April. Corningstone
has tactical speed and broke from the rail in her last race. She also owns the
second-highest Brisnet late-pace figure in the field and bested Bow Draw in the
Mistletoe Stakes. Contender.
Wild Bout Hilary takes
a step up into graded company after dominating the Pago Hop Stakes at the Fair
Grounds by 5 1/4 lengths. One rival has started since then and was a next-out
winner. The 4-year-old does her best work as a pacesetter and has been firing
bullet works at the Fair Grounds for Tanner Tracy. On the downside, Wild Bout
Hilary has never attained back-to-back victories and always finishes out of the
money in the race following her win. Pass.
Little Jamie has been
within a head of earning Grade 3 status. Last July, she missed by a head in the
Indiana Oaks then faded to third in the Monmouth Oaks. Typically a pacesetter,
the 4-year-old showed a new dimension in her first start off the layoff in the
Wayward Lass Stakes at Tampa. She relaxed in sixth place early, attacked around
the turn and dueled down the stretch, putting away a stubborn foe by 1 1/4
lengths. The Robert Medina trainee
earned a Brisnet 93 rating and a 96 late pace figure, the highest in the Bayakoa
field. Although she’s been in the money in eight of 13 starts, Little Jamie has
only visited the winner’s circle twice. The $250,000 question is if Collected’s
daughter is maturing and can duplicate her effort. Either way, she’s worth an
include on your ticket. Exotics.
Bow Draw hasn’t
visited the winner’s circle since last August in an Allowance Optional Claiming
event at Ellis Park and has two victories to her name, one was an Allowance
contest at Oaklawn. The Henry West, Jr. trainee was third in last year’s Mistletoe
Stakes and was fourth in this year’s Pippin, but otherwise, this 7-year-old
mare hasn’t hit the board in seven previous attempts. Pass.
The most experienced mare
in the field with 47 starts under her girth, the well-traveled Free Like a
Girl has hit the board in two of three starts at Oaklawn; she won an Allowance
Optional Claiming event and was third in last year’s Apple Blossom (G1) behind Adar
Manor and was caught late for second place by 3/4 length. The Chasey Pomier
trainee returned to finish second behind Idiomatic
in the La Troienne (G1), so she’s shown some graded class.
Free Like a Girl hopes to return to her winning ways after a pair of fourth-place
finishes in her last two starts. She may be tailing off since she hasn’t had a
break since last August, and her best form was a trio of victories between
October and November. She’s usually very consistent and is worth a look for the
Exotics.
Loved has won half
of her ten career starts, including a 3 1/2 length romp against a nice field in
the Falls City (G3) last November and earned a 95 Brisnet rating. Although she’s
a 6-year-old, Loved was a late bloomer and didn’t begin her career until she
was three. A half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Maxfield, Loved is
knocking on the graded stakes door. The Brendan Walsh trainee has tactical
speed, and her regular rider, Tyler Gaffalione, has been aboard for nine of ten
starts. Contender.
Analysis
The last five Bayakoa heroines
won or placed in their previous start. Three used the Falls City, Pippin or
Pago Hop as preps.
Pace pressers and setters
were the most successful; none were less than three lengths from the pace by
the 1/2 mile pole.
Corningstone, Wild
Bout Hilary and Loved fit the historical winning profile.
Wild Bout Hilary is
a need-the-lead type. She may mix it up with Corningstone to her inside.
Little Jamie is also one to watch and could surprise the top pair.
Free Like a Girl
has the class to win but hasn’t shown her best in her last two starts.
I’m rooting for
Corningstone to become the first to sweep the Mistletoe, Pippin and Bayakoa
Stakes. She may go to the post at higher odds than Loved.
The Grade 3
Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream is one of three Derby Prep races this weekend
and will be ideal, with 2025 Kentucky Derby Points on the line. Put on your
sunglasses, which we haven't gotten a chance to do in South Florida much
lately.
Saturday's weather should be perfect. The Holy Bull is featured as race 11 of 12 with a 5:13 PM ET post time
This is a small field with some good characters running.
1. Kinetic
Control –
Romans/Alvarado – Won in front running style last out going the distance at
Churchill. He's gone this trip three times with a first and second placing. The
speed figure given in the program last out is suspect as the early, middle and
late pace numbers in September for the same conditions rated better than the
last outing, and the time variance was only one second. He fits here and might
make another effort on the front with Alvarado up. Romans has been hot as of
late. Good odds, but I like others.
2. Ferocious – Delgado/Castellano- This guy has been talked about since his 2-year-old
campaign. He missed by 6.5 lengths in the BC Juvenile and missed by 5.25
lengths in the Breeder's Futurity. I find him a bit quirky in traffic. He's the
favorite and class-wise, he is the one, but I'll pass on a win bet at what is
likely to be a very short price.
3. Tappan
Street – Cox/Saez- Well done on debut with a tracking run
against eleven others going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Saez was up for that
ride and stays with him for the stretch-out instead of Guns Loaded. That says a
lot to me. He has the breeding to go longer, and I expect he will be ITM or win
going two turns.
4. Guns
Loaded - D'Angelo/Ortiz,
I Jr. - Not the only speed in the race, but he appears to be the speed of the
speed, which were his tactics for the last two races. The caution is in the
Mucho Macho Man, he's in front by three lengths in the stretch and is nearly
caught by the wire, only going a mile. He has the breeding to go all day, but
does he have the heart? Will use him on the ticket, but he won't be a price.
5. He's
Not Joking – Carroll/Velasquez- He is the only graded stakes winner of the
bunch and gets to carry the high weight for doing well (we should call this the
HB 'Handicap' Stakes). He won the Gray Stakes (GIII) at Woodbine against good
company by pulling away by four in the stretch in early November. Later in the
month, he presented a truly dismal performance at the Kentucky Jockey Club when
he was slow out of the gate. I'm going to scratch through that performance for
two reasons. I think the break between races was too short, given the distance,
and the bullet work in mid-November may be factors in his lack of performance.
The surface was not a factor, given his breeding. He's had some rest and some
good works going into this race. I expect he'll do better, and with Johnny V.
aboard, he will work out a trip. He may be the tastiest longshot in the
field.
6. Burning
Glory- Mott/Gaffalione- Steadily improving colt with excellent
breeding. As is often the case, the Hall of Fame trainer moves smoothly with
his young trainees, and they often show up well. Distance should not be a
factor. Gaffalione up is a plus at Gulfstream, and his steady pace figures
match what will be needed to be ITM.
7. Burnham
Square- Wilkes/Zayas – Another one of three that
have won at Gulfstream. His last outing was a win by 9 lengths and better than
the other two Gulfstream winners. This guy has all the credentials to win this
race and is an improving animal who likes Gulfstream. Zayas is a much-underrated
jockey when the big guns come to town, but understand, Edgard is a seasoned
journeyman, and this is home. I like this gelding, and his odds are right
for wagering.
Handigambling
The favorites
in this race are not price-worthy for my money. This is a short field, and a
smaller wager with long shots is a better option. Under $100 and no Trifecta or
Super today.
Hello Friends and welcome to The Turk Blog, where I handicap and develop exacta bets, primarily over grass, but extensively over all surfaces.
Next year is my 40th year as a handicapper, which is mind boggling to me as I still see myself as that young kid trying to understand how the races worked at Saratoga in the summer of 1986.
While I'm not an esteemed turf writer, I have been blogging continuously since 2008, so I am beginning my 18th year.
Timing is everything in life, and when this blog started, Twitter was just a new thing, and long form blogs were very popular. Within a few years, the best bloggers in this sport mostly stopped writing about individual races because they weren't being read anymore. All anyone wanted was the picks, tweeted out. I never started this or any of my online endeavors to be the most popular, or the most monetized. I'm not sure if that makes me noble, and my cause true, or if my ambition was just low. No matter, I enjoy what I do and I appreciate the good people at The Thorofan, especially Laurie, who allow me the opportunity to submit late and ramble incessantly.
If timing is everything, post position must not matter? Oh but it does.
Analyzing post position statistics for 1 1/8-mile dirt races at
Gulfstream Park reveals a significant advantage for horses starting from inside
posts. According to data from US Racing, in a sample of 34 two-turn dirt
routes, 32 winners broke from posts 1 through 7, accounting for approximately
94% of the victories. In contrast, horses starting from posts 8 and beyond
secured only 2 wins from 38 starts, representing a win percentage of about 5%.
I looked at a larger sample size as well, 5 years, and the percentages were about the same: 94%-6%. Part of that is field size, but the key takeaway is that it's hard to win from the outside as the configuration of the track, with its relatively short run to the
first turn, often places outside starters at a disadvantage, as they must
expend additional effort to secure favorable positions early in the race.
The one that comes to mind is Forte winning the Florida Derby from Post 11. Gun Runner in this race won from the 10 spot but the vast majority in this small sample size were from 6 in.
The Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, inaugurated in 2017, is a premier
thoroughbred horse race at Gulfstream Park. The gaudiness of the prize packages quickly made the Pegasus World Cup a marquee event, attracting top talent to compete for one of the largest
purses in the sport, currently $3.0 MM. With that type of money, drawing elite horses, jockeys, and trainers from around the globe is possible.
The inaugural running saw Arrogate, trained by Bob Baffert, deliver a
commanding performance to claim victory. In subsequent years, the race featured
iconic horses like Gun Runner, City of Light, and Knicks Go, whose wins
showcased their exceptional abilities. The race’s timing in late January strategically positions it early in the year's racing calendar, offering participants a chance to begin their
campaigns on a grand stage in North America where previously Dubai was the best early season option.
I generally start with current form, which I use video for, but this group comes in off of all sorts of races, with only 13 starts total by this group since 3 November, Breeders' Cup Weekend. Watch how Gun Runner handled the outside post, note that very short run to the first turn.
It is cool but the weather should be dry. I'm handicapping like it will be fast dirt. You can find scratches and changes here.
The Pegasus World Cup Invitational G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt for 4 YO and Up
What has Locked or any of the horses beyond the 7 post done to make you think they can pull off the win against the statistical odds against that post at this distance?
Inside of Locked with early speed(as measured by Timeform US Pace: Mixto, Saudi Crown, Newgrange, White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking. That's a lot of horses for the son of Gun Runner to run past quickly and establish a rail position. This is a six start horse that has never raced at Gulfstream, never raced at the distance, was a Show finish chalk at Breeders' Cup Juvenile. I started this analysis working backwards, what you are hearing me say is I don't have alot of faith in Locked, and don't see a reason to stretch on an overbet lightly raced, outside post. We are gamblers, the odds say move away.
So what and where should we look? I think a better gamble is on White Abarrio running at a track he's won 6 of 8 starts on, bouncing back under Trainer Joseph. Training well, training sharp, the 6 YO is in a great spot to get on the rail and be fresh at the end. The pick.
Saudi Crown should be the first turn leader. one win in three races at this distance, first time GP, 8 of 12 lifetime exacta finishes. Covering win and Place with him.
Crupi to me is in right spot and has one of the best stretch kicks. 7/14 Exactas on Fast Dirt, 5 of 11 exactas at the distance., the son of Curlin at 5 YO isn't jaw dropping, but 14 of 19 lieftime in the money and could add real value to the exacta.
Skippylongstocking is a pretty good exotic candidate if you are going deeper in the bets. Stronghhold ships in with Trainer D'Amato and the 4 YO is talented and could surprise. Same with Mixto, Trainer O'Neill with Dettori up, is a talented 5 YO that is winless in 3 tries at the distance, no exactas at the distance, No GP, but capable of big wins like his 22-1 Pacific Classic in August 2024.
Mystik Dan, 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, seems oddly placed in this race but I understand taking a swing at the prize. Sprint to Route for McPeek only 14% on 64 tries. Training sharp at GP and hopefully he can build off of this but I'm skeptical. The filly, Power Squeeze, also feels oddly placed and got a terrible post draw at 12.
I'm keeping the bet pretty simple:
4-2 OVER 4-2-5-1-6-10, a $2 Bet for $20. My aggressive bet is 4 OVER 2-5-1-6-10 for $10.
