Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Wagering Tactics for the Apple Blossom Handicap

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $1.25 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap is Oaklawn’s premier race for older fillies and mares. When I got the chance to write this, my comment was, “This will be a brief article.” And it will be.

The 1 1/16 mile event attracted seven contenders despite the presence of last year’s Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, who is making her 4-year-old debut. The Apple Blossom is featured as race 11 of 12 with a 5:48 PM CT post time.

#6 Thorpedo Anna is reminiscent of Rachel Alexander in the last decade. Winning against almost all comers, including the boys. If this is a class race, she wins based on the level of races and her competition. What a great record, and her speed figures are amazing. After a four-month layoff, she comes back in the Azeri to win by 3+ at this track and pushed a 95 Brisnet speed figure over a wet sealed track.

The thing is, there is only one in the field on the PPs that shows speed that can come close to her last, and that’s #5 Where’s My Ring at a much lower class rating, some 8 points below that of Anna’s last outing. And this is Anna’s second off the layoff. Better is yet to come.

Don’t get me wrong, there are some who have faced Anna in the past and made some money in the placings.

#3 Free Like a Girl came in second to Anna in the Azeri at 20-1 and has the most ITM experience over this track. #7 Wild Bout Hilary won the Bayonkoa here by a head against Free Like a Girl at 7-1 in a field of 8.

The others

We have a state-bred sprinter coming off a 386 day break in #4 Noble Miss, an Optional Claimer coming in for a low-level trainer who’s new to the mare in #1 Sweet Alyssa, and Steve Asmussen brings a black type racer who hasn’t hit the board since a turf race in November. I don’t think any of the three can match the skills of those above, let alone Anna.

How to play this, and is it worthy of playing.

If you’re a gambler, of course, you’ll play because that’s what you do. But what is to be gained? Don’t expect a big payday if Anna wins, which is highly likely. She only paid $.10 on a dollar last out.

If you’re a Handigambler, here is some options……a single wager and/or a punt and a multi-race wager.

$5 Superfectas  -  6 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7  = $30

The Punt  - $5 to Place and $8 to Show on 3 and 7 if their odds stay above 7-1 = $26

Multi Race wager

$1 Pick 3 Race 9,10,11  -  8,9,10 with 1,4,6 with 6 =  $9

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Beholder Mile (G1)

 West vs. East in Beholder Mile

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Saturday’s $300,000 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita pits the undefeated LaCanada (G3) heroine against five other older fillies and mares, including two Eastern invaders.

Originally called the Vanity Handicap in 1940, and then the Vanity Mile in 2016, the race name was switched in 2017 in honor of  four-time champ and Hall of Fame mare Beholder. During her five-year career, Beholder captured the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and was a two-time heroine of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Beholder captured the Vanety Stakes in 2016.

Spotlighted as Race 8 of 11, the Beholder Mile post time is 3:43 PM PT.

Let’s review the field.

A multiple Group 1 winner in her native Chile, Richi upped her game in a trio of races in California, including a 1 1/2 length victory in the Las Flores (G3). The Bob Baffert trainee regressed in the seven-furlong Santa Monica (G2). She was tugging to join the leaders but was asked to sit being a quick early pace and didn’t have her usual kick. 

Richi’s Brisnet speed ratings have increased in each start and her late pace figure in the Santa Monica was 103, the highest in the Beholder field. A winner from seven furlongs to 1 1/4 miles in Chile, Richi should handle the extra furlong in the Beholder, but gets her third jockey in as many starts.

Hoosier Philly ships west after a three-way battle to the wire in the Houston Ladies Classic (G3) where she was bested 3/4 length. Although she won the Golden Rod (G2) as a juvenile, the pretty gray mare hasn’t captured another graded stake in her four-year campaign, although she’s captured other blacktype stakes.

The Tom Amoss trainee is always game, is two for two at a mile, and has tactical speed. Yet her speed figures hover in the high 80’s and she’ll need to improve to have a shot at the winner’s circle. Pass.

The lightly raced four-year-old Cavalieri has been conservatively handled by Bob Baffert. She captured her debut at Del Mar last August, and returned to best winners in an optional claiming event at Santa Anite in October. Cavalieri returned three months later and bested Beholder rival Alpha Bella by 1 1/2 lengths in the 1 1/16 mile La Canada (G3). In all, Cavalieri has won her trio of starts by a combined seven lengths, and her speed ratings are in the high 90s. Contender.

Ultimate Authority steps up after playing in the Allowance Optional Claiming ranks. The promising Tim Yakteen filly has finished no worse than fourth in six starts, but one of those four-place finishes was in the Santa Ysabel a month after breaking her maiden.

Ultimate Authority’s last race was her best. Racing wide the entire way, she circled the field and drew off by three lengths. Although her final time for the mile was 1:37.70, she completed her final furlong in 12.66, earning a94 speed rating. Her 98 late pace figure is the second highest in the Beholder field. Ultimate Authority’s weak spot is that she hasn’t managed back-to-back wins, but she’s worth a look for the exotics.

The multiple Grade 2 winner Tarifa ships west for Brad Cox. She’s only been worse than fourth once in ten career starts and was last seen placing second in the Ralls City Stakes (G3) last November after a year long campaign. The pacesetter/presser was fourth in her sole start at a mile but has won from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Her Brisnet ratings are in the mid-90s and her late pace figures are competitive with her Beholder rivals.

Tarifa has been logging consistent works at Payson Park in Florida, including a recent trio of five-furlong breezes. She runs well fresh, has won over multiple tracks and gets the services of Mike Smith. Contender.

Alpha Bella was the bridesmaid in her last three starts, all Grade 2 or Grade 3 events. The John Sadler trainee seldom wins and prefers to finish second or third. Her speed figures are competitive, and she scored a 96 in the La Canada (G2) her first start of the year. Alpha Bella has tactical speed and should be included in your exotics.

 

Analysis

The Beholder Mile could be an East- West showdown between Cavalieri and Tarifa. Cavalieri will play her usual catch-me-if-you-can game while Hoosier Philly and Tarifa may turn on the heat to her outside. Richi, Ultimate Authority and Alpha Bella will be in close pursuit.

Cavalieri has the home track advantage and the recency of a race under her girth. Tarifa is game and she outclasses the rest of this field. Alpha Bella, Richi and Ultimate Authority will pick up the pieces.

 

3. Cavalieri (9-5)

5. Tarifa (3-1)

4. Ultimate Authority (15-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Bayakoa Stakes (G3)

 Corningstone anchors Bayakoa field

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $250,000 Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday attracted a competitive group of fillies and mares 4-year-olds and older.

The Grade 3 contest is held in honor of the Argentinian-bred Bayakoa, conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Ron McAnally and became a two-time champion older mare in 1989 and 1990. Among her many achievements were back-to-back victories in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff when she was five and six.

A prep for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes in April, The Bayakoa is spotlighted as race 9 of ten with a 4:25 PM CT post time over a fast track.

Making her third start off the layoff, Corningstone hopes to be the first mare to complete a sweep of the Mistletoe, Pippin and Bayakoa Stakes. The Ken McPeek trainee is a model of consistency and hasn’t finished off the board since last April. Corningstone has tactical speed and broke from the rail in her last race. She also owns the second-highest Brisnet late-pace figure in the field and bested Bow Draw in the Mistletoe Stakes. Contender.

Wild Bout Hilary takes a step up into graded company after dominating the Pago Hop Stakes at the Fair Grounds by 5 1/4 lengths. One rival has started since then and was a next-out winner. The 4-year-old does her best work as a pacesetter and has been firing bullet works at the Fair Grounds for Tanner Tracy. On the downside, Wild Bout Hilary has never attained back-to-back victories and always finishes out of the money in the race following her win. Pass.

Little Jamie has been within a head of earning Grade 3 status. Last July, she missed by a head in the Indiana Oaks then faded to third in the Monmouth Oaks. Typically a pacesetter, the 4-year-old showed a new dimension in her first start off the layoff in the Wayward Lass Stakes at Tampa. She relaxed in sixth place early, attacked around the turn and dueled down the stretch, putting away a stubborn foe by 1 1/4 lengths. The  Robert Medina trainee earned a Brisnet 93 rating and a 96 late pace figure, the highest in the Bayakoa field. Although she’s been in the money in eight of 13 starts, Little Jamie has only visited the winner’s circle twice. The $250,000 question is if Collected’s daughter is maturing and can duplicate her effort. Either way, she’s worth an include on your ticket. Exotics.

Bow Draw hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since last August in an Allowance Optional Claiming event at Ellis Park and has two victories to her name, one was an Allowance contest at Oaklawn. The Henry West, Jr. trainee was third in last year’s Mistletoe Stakes and was fourth in this year’s Pippin, but otherwise, this 7-year-old mare hasn’t hit the board in seven previous attempts. Pass.

The most experienced mare in the field with 47 starts under her girth, the well-traveled Free Like a Girl has hit the board in two of three starts at Oaklawn; she won an Allowance Optional Claiming event and was third in last year’s Apple Blossom (G1) behind Adar Manor and was caught late for second place by 3/4 length. The Chasey Pomier trainee returned to finish second behind Idiomatic

in the La Troienne (G1), so she’s shown some graded class. Free Like a Girl hopes to return to her winning ways after a pair of fourth-place finishes in her last two starts. She may be tailing off since she hasn’t had a break since last August, and her best form was a trio of victories between October and November. She’s usually very consistent and is worth a look for the Exotics.

Loved has won half of her ten career starts, including a 3 1/2 length romp against a nice field in the Falls City (G3) last November and earned a 95 Brisnet rating. Although she’s a 6-year-old, Loved was a late bloomer and didn’t begin her career until she was three. A half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Maxfield, Loved is knocking on the graded stakes door. The Brendan Walsh trainee has tactical speed, and her regular rider, Tyler Gaffalione, has been aboard for nine of ten starts. Contender.

Analysis

The last five Bayakoa heroines won or placed in their previous start. Three used the Falls City, Pippin or Pago Hop as preps.

Pace pressers and setters were the most successful; none were less than three lengths from the pace by the 1/2 mile pole.

Corningstone, Wild Bout Hilary and Loved fit the historical winning profile.

Wild Bout Hilary is a need-the-lead type. She may mix it up with Corningstone to her inside. Little Jamie is also one to watch and could surprise the top pair.

Free Like a Girl has the class to win but hasn’t shown her best in her last two starts.

I’m rooting for Corningstone to become the first to sweep the Mistletoe, Pippin and Bayakoa Stakes. She may go to the post at higher odds than Loved.

Selections

1. Corningstone (2-1)

6. Loved (9-5)

3. Little Jamie (4-1)