Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Pegasus World Cup Turf - Brother, What a Good Race

 Brother, What a Good Race

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

The Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf  Invitational Stakes has a long history and many different names. It was born in 1986 as a handicap race, the Gulfstream Park Breeders Cup Handicap.

Over 30 years later, in 2019, it was branded as part of the Pegasus series of races at Gulfstream. This year, after Siege of Boston and Paros scratched, 12 older horses will vie 1 1/8 miles on the turf course for a share of the $1,000,000 purse.

The weather in South Florida is predicted to be sunny, with temperatures around 69 degrees. The event is carded as race 12 of 13, with a 4:55 PM ET post time.

 Let’s look at the field.

1.Siege of Boston Scratched

2.Formidable Man (City of Light) Working bullets and should be off the pace in mid-pack. May not be fast enough. Pass.

3.Mi Hermano Ramon (Creative Cause) Works are good. Keeps Saez. Has improving figures over the last four races. Should be ready to win. Contender.

4.Win for the Money (Mohaymen) Keeps hot jockey Dylan Davis. Three in the money at Gulfstream. May have control of the race into the stretch with a reasonable closing move. In the money.

5.Integration (Quality Road) One of three starters for McGaughey with a strong closing move. Has had trouble in his last three, not performing up to his ability. Gets star jockey Dettori, who should get the best from him. Maybe in the lower exotics.

6.Major Dude (Bolt d’Oro) Trying Grade 1 company for a second time. The first try was not so good. Keeps Irad Ortiz. Working bullet for Pletcher, who brings two to the gate. Lower Exotics.

7.Nations Pride (Ire) ( Teofilo-Ire) Trainer Appleby brings jockey Buick trying to repeat their Arlington Million success. Should be sitting off the lead, ready to move in the stretch, and he’s making his second start off the layoff, so he may be ready. In the money.

8.Spirit of St. Louis (Medaglia) Another that does his running late. Gets new jockey, Franco. Trying Gulfstream turf for the first time. Working nice. Form shows more improvement. Lower exotics.

9.Balnikhv (Ire) (Adaay-Ire)  Has a great closing move that should help in this field loaded with off-the-pace runners. Layoff may be a problem, although working nicely. Watch the board. Not sure?

10.Battle of Normandy (City of Light) Working nice. Long layoff, although hasn’t caused a problem before. Won his last three on the turf. Form figures improving. May be ready with new jockey, Jose Ortiz up. Maybe in exotics.

11.Grand Sonata (Medaglia d’Oro) Backed up in Breeders’ Cup Turf. Working Bullet. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez replaces Gaffalione, who goes to Brown’s horse. Interesting. Another day.

12.Chasing the Crown (Skipshot) Stepping up in company. Hasn’t won any graded races. New jockey, Zayas. He will be coming at the end, but it may be too much for him to accomplish. Pass.

13.Fort Washington (AE) (War Front) Trying to break into Grade 1 company. His last three have shown promise. McGaughy others look better.

14.Paros (AE) Scratched

Thoughts 

The dangerous one looks like Fort Washington. The pace should be moderate, and as in most turf races, the contenders will be coming at the end.

Davis on Win for the Money could hold on for a piece if I am right on the pace. The two Irish horses have to be respected. Brown and Gaffalione with the New York-bred could surprise. All said, this will be an exciting race with opportunities to light up the board.

Here is how I think they will finish

3. Mi Hermano Ramon (8-1)

4. Win for the Money (12-1)

7. Nations Pride (2-1)

8. Spirit of St. Louis (20-1)

Handigamble

          $20 Win & place-- 3-Mi Hermano Ramon  $40.00

$2 Trifecta Box---3, 4, 7, 8  $48.00     

$2 Exacta Box ---3, 4, 7   $12.00

Handicappers Corner: Building a case in the 2024 Lecomte Stakes (G3)

 Building a case in the Lecomte Stakes

By: Robert Marks, @theyreinthegate

It will be cold for most of the country, but one place fairly warm will be New Orleans, Louisiana, where a 2025 Kentucky Derby Prep, the Lecomte Stakes, will run on Saturday. Crucial qualifying points (20-10-6-4-2 to the top 5) will be awarded in this large 14-horse field.

The favorite is Built, at 3-1 morning lines odds, trained by Wayne Catalano with Jareth Loveberry the Jockey. He comes off a win in the Gun Runner Stakes, and if he runs to that speed figure again, he will be tough to beat. Likes to go out fast, but that might be a bit tricky coming out of post 13. Sired by Hard Spun, speed is in the bloodlines. His Gun Runner Stakes was over the same distance, so the route should not be a problem. Barring traffic issues, your likely winner.

Innovator (10-1) trained by legendary elder Statesman D. Wayne Lukas is interesting. He comes off a Maiden win over 6 furlongs at Oaklawn Park, his seventh race. He will try to stretch out and run two turns for the first time. He will be coming out of post position 1, and the rail post has hit at a 29%-win rate this meet, which is a very impressive stat. On paper, he is a bit slow to win it all, but he came off a bullet workout last Saturday, and Lukas has success running at the Fair Grounds. We wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes in the money. Jamie Torres gets the mount, having ridden him once to a second-place finish 2 races ago.

Magnitude (6-1) trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, also comes off a second-place finish behind Built in the Gun Runner Stakes last time out. Before that won impressively in a Mile and 1/16^th race at Churchill Downs. He will be ridden by Jose Ortiz, who has piloted two wins and three placings in last seven rides for Asmussen. Had a bullet workout on the sixth at The Fair Grounds. Should be pressing the pace early and seems to have the stamina and seasoning to be there at the end.

Admiral Dennis, (8-1) Trained by Brad Cox, comes off a poor Gun Runner Stakes where he stumbled out of the gate, finishing fourth. Broke his maiden at a mile distance and is sired by Constitution out of a Tapit mare, so the distance should not be a problem. Brad Cox is hot, winning at a 30%-win rate over his last 33 races. Looks like a versatile type who can run mid-pack and go when jockey Joel Rosario tells him to do so. Watch the board; if he stays at his morning line odds of 8-1, he is a must-use.

If you want to land on a longshot, why note Mobetterthangood (20-1), who broke his Maiden first time out on the final weekend at Saratoga but has not raced since. He is trained by Kenny McPeek, who is a master at placing his horses in the right spot.

Summary

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with a good early pace.

We think Innovator out the one hole sets the pace with Magnitude and Admiral Dennis sitting behind him.

Built, barring any traffic issues, should be sitting mid-pack waiting on the Jock decision to move at the last turn.

If Admiral Dennis bows out we like the other Brad Cox entry, Disco Time. Undefeated in 2 starts with a strong speed figure last time out at a mile at Churchill Downs, he’s done nothing wrong but did get out a step slow, which in this big field is an issue of concern. Nevertheless, Disco Time should be in your exotics.

Handigambling

We will hope to kit a Trifecta Boxing with our 4 highlighted horses. As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Built

$2Trifecta Box: Built, Innovator, Admiral Dennis (or Disco Time), Magnitude (total bet $48)

$2 Longshot pace: Mobetterthangood

Handicapper's Corner: Looking for Value in 2024 Ginger Brew Stakes

 Looking for value in the Ginger Brew Stakes

By: Stuart Marc DeVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

I’m sure all the birthday parties for the horses are done and cleaned up. 

The newly turned three-year-old fillies take the stage at Gulfstream on Saturday under forecasted ideal conditions to go one mile on the sod. 

A full field of 11 with an also eligible signed up to get things started in a division that offers lucrative opportunities as the year progresses. The $165,000 listed Ginger Brew Stakes closes the day as race 11 with a 5:22 PM ET post time.

Here’s the field:

1.   Smile Po 30-1 – Has a few wins on the synthetic, but her effort, albeit with trouble on the turf, was less than what it will take to beat these. PASS.

2.   Love Cervere 10-1 – Top connections send out the NY maiden winner. In that race, she had a bit of an awkward beginning but got her feet, caught a split and started to separate late. She can certainly progress from that effort as her Thorograph number is competitive with these. OUTSIDE CHANCE.

3.   Fixin to Be 15-1 – Looked all out to break maiden at KEE and then took a shot on the dirt in the Golden Rod G2 to no avail. Luis Saez sees fit to ride, but Fixin to Be’s last two jockeys ride others, which is not a great sign. PASS.

4.   Correto 8-1 – Was 3^rd in the Ms. Grillo G2 right before the  Breeder’s Cup Juvi Filly Turf, where she chased a fast pace that collapsed. That said, she did hold reasonably well, only beaten 5 lengths in the end. That’s extra credit in my book. CONTENDER.

5.   Hello Hello Hello 30-1 – Would have to show more on speed figures and company kept to contend. Her two fastest races were off the turf and won by open lengths. You would get paid if she won. I would not. PASS.

6.   Disco Star 10-1 – Mark Casse’s “other” entrant ran fast, breaking her maiden against NY Breds in October. In that race, Dylan Davis, who rides today, piloted her on a sustained wide run after an awkward stumble at the break. She destroyed lesser rivals and passed the eye test for sure. Don’t sleep on her. CONTENDER.

7.   Special Aviator 12-1 – She’s done nothing wrong for her trainer Rohan Crichton. Two starts and two victories, with one coming in an overnight stake over the track. She seems light on speed figures but could improve, I suppose. I need to see more. PASS.

8.   Civetta 3-1 – Leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. rides back after winning the Wait A While with this Brendan Walsh trained filly. She had an absolutely perfect trip and then held off 33-1 rival Winning Streep, whom she faces again today. If you like one, you have to like the other. I feel this is a good favorite to go against, as I don’t like betting perfect-trip winners coming back at short prices. If she is in the money, I am not. TOSS.

9.   Forward Deployed 15-1 – This Chad Brown runner for Flanagan Racing was dismissed at 12-1 when she broke her maiden off the layoff last month. She’s back on short rest but seemed to have more in the tank that day, and it would surprise no one that a Chad Brown runner won a stake off a maiden win 2^nd out, would it? I suspect she will be lower than the morning line of 15-1. Juicy. CONTENDER.

10.Nitrogen 5-2 – Mark Casse’s “main entrant” closed strongly into the fast pace of the Breeder’s Cup Juvi Fillies Turf grabbing the show dough. She saved ground from the inside and caught tired foes, but she was only beaten 2.5 lengths by the monster Lake Victoria. She has the credentials to be favored with 2 G1 placing. I also find it interesting that Jose Ortiz shows up in town for this. He is destroying the Fair Ground jockey colony and sees fit to visit his brother for the weekend and ride here. CONTENDER.

11.Winning Streep 10-1 – Lost a neck to the morning line second choice in last, Civetta. Ran a good race at a big price. I get the feeling that last time was the time. TOSS.

12.Good Long Cry 8-1 – Johnnie V picks up the mount for George Weaver as Irad sticks with Civetta. This gal seems to be improving as she seems to have learned to rate and finish. Early in her six-start career, Good Long Cry seemed headstrong, but now she waits and finishes. I wish she had a better post, but previously, she has performed well from the outside. Her speed figures are improving as well. CONTENDER.

Summary

In this bulky field, I am not willing to take the favorites in Nitrogen and Civetta. While they both fit on speed figures and connections, they both exit very favorable trips. Why do they have to get that again today? 

That said, I’d like to take Good Long Cry as a top choice, but she’s marooned in the outside box. I can make a case for Forward Deployed on connections and potential upside. 

Disco Star beat up on much lesser and is doing a few new things such as stretching out and running in open stakes company.   

The same things can be said for Love Cervere. Finally, Correto has the class, was up against it last time, and may just get the trip. 

The Bet (Based on $100)

Since I feel this is a wide-open race and I don’t care for the shorter-priced horses, I will do some exacta boxes hoping to catch some longshots. 

I will key on both the 4 & 12

$6 exacta box 4, 12, 9  = 36

$5 exacta box 4,12, 6 = 30

$4 exacta part wheel 4,12 with 4, 6, 9, 12 = 24

Good luck!