2023 Lecomte Stakes Analysis
By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off
The race
takes its name from Lecomte: an equine star of the 1850s, a half-sister to
Saratoga stakes namesake Prioress, and the only horse to defeat the great
Lexington. Though Lecomte was bred in
Kentucky, he went to Louisiana as a yearling. He was named after his owner’s
friend Ambrose Lecomte, a Louisiana landowner, and later gave a misspelled
version of his name to the town of Lecompte, Louisiana.
The 2023
Lecomte Stakes drew a field of 8, competing for a $200,000 purse and Road to
the Kentucky Derby points. Unlike in previous years, when only the top four
finishers received points, this year the top five do. They will be allotted
20-8-6-4-2, assuming the horses are running without Lasix and are conditioned
by Derby-eligible trainers. In this case, all eight horses are points eligible.
Though no Lecomte Stakes winner has yet gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, seven have won the Louisiana Derby, most recently International Star (2015). The race has been a particularly live Preakness prep in recent years; in the last ten years, two of its winners have gone on to win Baltimore’s most important race: Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019). Last year’s winner, Epicenter, went on to finish second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He won the Travers (G1) and is a finalist for Champion Three-Year-Old Male honors.
Saturday, January 21 - Fair Grounds
Race 14: Lecomte Stakes (G3),
three-year-olds, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 6:30pm CST
With rain in
the forecast for Saturday, there is a good chance Two Phil’s can run
right back to his smart victory in the Street Sense (G3) on October 30. His
trainer Larry Rivelli is strong with layoff horses, and Two Phil’s himself
routed the field in the Shakopee Juvenile off a two-month break last year. And that win came on a dry track, meaning
this horse has some promise even if the rain does not fall. Two Phil’s has
tactical speed from the outside, giving him a chance for a nice stalking trip,
and his rider Jareth Loveberry is not only this horse’s regular rider (and
Rivelli’s first call), but is winning prodigiously at the Far Grounds meet.
Instant
Coffee is the likely
favorite. He comes in from a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club: interestingly
enough, though four of the last ten Lecomte winners raced in the Kentucky
Jockey Club, none of those recent Lecomte winners have finished better than
third in that race. Still, it is a testament to how good that race is as a prep
for the Lecomte, since it shows horses are ready to go two turns against classy
company. Though there is a chance that the Lecomte pace will not be extremely
fast, since other speed horses would have to step up to match Echo Again,
Instant Coffee did prove in the Kentucky Jockey Club that he could finish
smartly into a pace that was not particularly fast. Between that and the fact
that trainer Brad Cox is winning at a 45% clip going into this race week,
Instant Coffee should produce a good effort.
Though Echo Again hasn’t yet run back to his dazzling debut at Saratoga, and still has to answer the question of whether he can be effective at two turns, there are reasons this could be the spot he wakes up over that longer trip. In short, he looks like the speed of the speed. Early pace has been holding well at the Fair Grounds, and though there are some others in the field who have shown enough pace to be close, Echo Again is fast enough to make the lead and get clear unless one of the others finds a lot more early pace. Given that he comes into this second off the lay and his pedigree does bode well for two turns on both sides, he may just open up early and forget to stop for high-percentage trainer Steve Asmussen.
Selections:
#8 Two Phil’s (4-1)
#7 Instant Coffee (5-2)
#1 Echo Again (6-1)
Longshot:
With rain in the forecast for Saturday, #2 Denington (8-1) has a
good chance to step up. His maiden win came three starts back over a sloppy
dirt track.
He does have
tables to turn on Instant Coffee from the Kentucky Jockey Club two back,
but he was beaten only 1 ½ lengths in that outing and Kentucky Jockey Club also-rans
have an excellent record in the Lecomte over the last decade.
The tilt in the Kentucky Jockey Club was a decent effort after a wide trip and a modest pace up front, and the new blinkers may keep him a little closer up. Finally, jockey Corey Lanerie is having a strong start to the Fair Grounds meet, giving Denington the chance to improve with a strong local rider.
