Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Pacific Classic (G1)

A Logical Long Shot in the Pacific Classic

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 6:35 pm Pacific time (9:35 Eastern) is the Grade 1 2019 TVG Pacific Classic for 3-year old’s and Up. The purse is $1,000,000. The distance is 1 1/4 miles on the Dirt Track.

This is the premier race for the summer meet at Del Mar Racetrack. You will see some of these horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic later this fall so this is a key race on the way to the BC Classic.  This is also a “win and you’re in” qualifier for the BC Classic.

This year, the 29th edition of the race has a full field of 10 entries.

#6 Tenfold (8-1)  Mike Smith climbs aboard Tenfold for the first time. Mr. Smith has won this race 5 times (tied with Garret Gomez for most wins). How often do you get Mike Smith and 8-1 morning line odds?  This 4 year old was sired by Curlin (also trained by Asmussen). He comes off a lackluster 9th in the Stephen Clark at Churchill but won 2 back in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.  Has a favorable post for his running style which is a stalking type. If he gets a nice pace to close into, I like Big Money Mike coming down the stretch for the upset win here.

#2 Quip (7-2)  Ran 2nd to Seeking the Soul in the Stephen Foster in June at Churchill. Before that he won the Oaklawn Handicap. He seems to be in perfect form and had a very high speed figure in the Stephen Foster. I look for this horse to be one of the early pack leaders, if not the leader, and holding out for the place position at the finish line. Jockey Florent Geroux won the 2017 BC Classic on this track aboard Gun Runner.

#7 Seeking the Soul (3-1) This 6 year old horse is your Morning Line Favorite. If this was Churchill Downs, where he has won 3 stakes races, we would jump on board with a big win bet, but as he ships west to Del Mar, our win money will go to better valve on Tenfold. Seeking the Soul is in top form, coming off a closing win in the Stephen Foster at Churchill. Look for him to be closing again, trying to pass the early leaders in the last ¼ mile. We look for a bit of a bounce and expect a 3rd or 4th place effort for this Dallas Stewart trained entry. 

Overall, we expect a fast pace with Quip, Pavel and Draft Pick going early setting up the race for closers Tenfold and Seeking the Soul.

Our strategy will be keying on Tenfold to win and putting him on top of our Exacta’s and Trifecta’s.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll

Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Key Box $10:  6/2,7  = $40

Trifecta Box $5:  6/2,7/2,7 = $10

Win Bet $50: 6 = $50

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Alabama Stakes (G1)

Alabama Stakes May Be a Family Affair

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

With most of the Saratoga meeting behind us, fans are ready for the crescendo. It begins this weekend with the Alabama Stakes (GI). It continues next weekend with six grade one races including the meetings franchise race the Travers Stakes (GI). The meet closes out in two weeks with the premier races for 2-year-olds --- Spinaway (GI) for fillies on Sunday and the Hopeful (GI) for colts on Monday and the Woodward Stakes (GI) on Saturday, August 31, 2019. Although in days the end is near, in races the excitement is just beginning at the SPA. 

The Alabama Stakes (GI) is a race for 3-year-old fillies that will test their endurance ability as they traverse the 10-furlong challenge. It was first run in 1872 with this year being its 148th anniversary. However, it has only actually been run for 136 times, but who is counting. 

This prestigious race always draws a stellar and competitive field. Morning Line odds suggest the race is between two – Dunbar Road (8/5) and Point of Honor (5/2). Here is the field:

1.      Dunbar Road (Quality Road) comes into the race with a win in the Mother Goose Stakes (II) at Belmont Park and boasting a record of 3 wins in 4 attempts where she has been the post time favorite in all starts. The same is expected today. With the top early speed to her immediate right she may have trip problems. 

2.      Lady Apple ( Curlin) is the pace setter. She can gobble up the first quarter in under 22 seconds. If the Saratoga tracks remains fast, she may be hard to catch. Ulele from the 6th gate may be the one to try to stay with her. Not the likely winner, but the combination of Asmussen and Santana can be dangerous.

3.      Afleet Destiny (Hard Spun) has only one win in 12 attempts. A major class jump for this filly that is adequately reflected in her Morning Line odds of 30-1.

4.      Champagne Anyone (Street Sense) has been regressing of late, but her works suggest this may be a new day for trainer Ian Wilkes and his son-in-law, jockey Chris Landeros. Big if!

5.      Street Band (Istan) is partially owned and trained by Larry Jones who also bred the filly. This family affair will be dangerous. She retains her jockey Sophie Doyle who has put her in the Winner’s Circle 3 times out of 8 attempts. On Saturday she could hit the 50% mark.

6.      Ulele ( Candy Ride) is one that is regularly in the mix at the wire. Brad Cox goes back to jockey, Rosario, who gave a scare to Point of Honor in the Black-Eyed Susan (GII). She was handled in the Iowa Oaks by Lady Apple. Could happen again; not a good sign.

7.      Point of Honor (Curlin) had a solid performance in the Coaching Club American Oaks (GI) over the Saratoga racing surfaces and may be ready to move up to the Winner’s Circle. Castellano rides for trainer Weaver who seems to struggling at the Spa in graded stakes performances. Clearly a top contender, if she brings her “A Game”. Will she?

8.      Off Topic (Street Sense) is not at the top of her game. She shocked the Saratoga fans by capturing the Show Spot at 31.25-1 odds in the Coaching Club American Oaks. Not likely to improve enough to have a repeat performance in the Alabama Stakes.

9.      Kelsey’ Cross (Anthony’s Cross) her best speed rating is below that of others. Ran well at 1 3/16 miles in the Saratoga Oaks with 3rd place finish at 21.50-1 odds. Has had a different jockey in all his starts. Rajiv Maragh tries to make a difference in her 6th start. Unlikely to show much more.

The pace will be honest unless Lady Apple is left alone on the lead. If Rosario sends Ulele out after her, the battle in the stretch will be exciting. The battle at the 1/16th pole should be among Street Band, Point of Honor, Dunbar Road and Lady Apple.

Selections

Here is how I see the race finishing:

1.      Street Band (#5)

2.      Dunbar Road (#1)

3.      Lady Apple (#2)

4.      Point of Honor (#7)

5.      Champagne Anyone (#4—just in case)

Handigamble

$2 Trifecta Box – (#1,#2,#5 and #7) --$48.00

$.10 Superfecta- (#1,#2,#4,#5 and #7) --$12

$40 to place on Street Band (#5) -----$40.00

                                             $100.00

Good Luck but keep the day job.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Beverly D. (G1)

The Arlington Revolution - Can Europe Reclaim the Beverly D.?

By: Alex Sausville, Off The Turf Podcast

Arlington Million Day has been known for bringing some exceptional international talent to the windy city. The Beverly D itself has hosted many European connections to its winner’s circle including the likes of Dank and Euro Charline in 2013 and 2014 respectively. 

However since the disqualification of Secret Gesture in the 2015 rendition of this prestigious event, the Beverly D. trophy has belonged to the US and Chad Brown. Brown has now captured 5 Beverly Ds including 4 consecutive victories leading into this Saturday.

This year’s Beverly D is not just a chance for Brown to extend his win streak to 5 consecutive, but it also gives one of his turf superstars, Sistercharlie, a chance to join the exclusive company of multiple Beverly D winners. Following a Chad Brown trifecta in last year’s race, Sistercharlie comes in off an extremely impressive win in the G1 Diana at Saratoga. She defeated two very talented stablemates in that race including G2 New York Stakes winner Homerique and multiple G1 winner Rushing Fall.

With another strong Chad Brown contingency headed to Chicago in search of more triumphs on the Arlington turf, legendary European trainer Aidan O’Brien will be sending in two of his best shots at capturing his first Beverly D with Fleeting and Magic Wand. Aidan O’Brien has had a storied career on Arlington Million day, with 4 wins in the Secretariat Stakes and the 2011 Arlington Million with Cape Blanco. However despite his successes on both sides of the water, the Beverly D is one he has been unable to capture. 

Last time out, Sistercharlie provided an exceptional effort for the opening weekend fans at the Spa, blowing by Rushing Fall in the stretch of the Diana. Sistercharlie had come off a 7 ½ month layoff leading into that grade 1 event and looked as good as ever in doing so. That win was Sistercharlie’s 4th consecutive victory for a horse who has won all but two starts in the US with losses in the Belmont Oaks and New York Stakes by a neck and head respectively.

Despite the towering force of Sistercharlie, Chad Brown also sends out two others with a lot of talent including G1 American Oaks winner Competitionofideas and Thais(FR), who finished a solid third in the Beverly D just last year behind two of his stablemates. Thais was on the lead last year and assumes to be in a similar position again on Saturday. Sistercharlie will garner the majority of the attention of this group, however Competitionofideas is coming off two losses in the Matchmaker and New York Stakes by a neck and Thais looked as if she was the setup speed horse last year and got very brave on the front end in the process, finishing a strong third behind two super talented fillies.

Fleeting on the rail is a horse that should be considered a serious contender to upending Sistercharlie and potentially being O’Brien’s first Beverly D winner. This horse will be shortening up from a mile and a half in her most recent start in the G1 Kerrygold Irish Oaks at the Curragh and gets a two-time Beverly D winning jockey in Ryan Moore back in the saddle. For Fleeting’s first start on American soil it will be quite a test, but may just be one she’s up for.

With a couple starts in the US under her belt, Magic Wand comes out of a tough race back in July at Royal Ascot but has proven her talent level in races prior. One of her best performances came from a 2nd place finish to current Arlington Million favorite Bricks and Mortar in the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. She did get a very nice rail trip during the Pegasus Turf and was merely bested by the possibly the best turf runner in the US. If Magic Wand can get a similar trip in the Beverly D she could have a very strong chance to be contending at the wire.

My Plays:

$5 Trifecta - 7 with 1,6 with 2,3,4,5,8 = $50

$5 Trifecta - 7 with 2,3,4,5,8 with 1,6 = $50

Total: $100

Final Thoughts:

Despite a couple of very talented shippers coming into this race from across the pond, I still do not see them being able to take down a super sharp horse in Sistercharlie. With my trifectas, I will be looking for one of the O’Brien runners to finish underneath and hopefully create some value with one of the other horses. I do believe there could be some factors that could cause either Magic Wand or Fleeting to bounce in this effort and if they do I hope a nicely priced horse can pick up a 2nd or 3rd for a nice payout.

With a plethora of turf talent on display at Arlington International Racecourse this Saturday, the stage is set for a memorable Million Day. Sit back, relax and enjoy, “The Greatest Show on Turf."