Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Arlington Million (G1)

Arlington Million: Can Bricks and Mortar Hold it Together? 

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The centerpiece of the summer meet at Arlington is the Arlington Million: the world's first million-dollar Thoroughbred race when it was inaugurated in 1981.  Its first running is commemorated with a statue overlooking the paddock at Arlington Park: a replica of the tight photo finish that went to John Henry over The Bart.




Ten horses, including current turf route division leader Bricks and Mortar and last year's Arlington Million winner Robert Bruce, have entered the Arlington Million.  That includes Aidan O'Brien trainee Magic Wand, who is cross-entered between the Million and the Beverly D. Stakes (G1).

The victor's spoils also include a Win, and You're In berth to the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). To date, one horse has swept that Arlington Million - Breeders' Cup Turf double: Little Mike, in 2014.  However, one other horse won a Breeders' Cup race after his Million triumph; Steinlen (1989) ended his championship campaign that year with a victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1).

Taking time off to heal and grow has paid rich dividends for Bricks and Mortar, who returned from an extended layoff to win an allowance at Gulfstream in December, and in four starts since has emerged as the best American turf horse in training.  The jump from that allowance win to the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) proved to be the right move, as he finished devastatingly well to finish two and a half lengths clear of second-place Magic Wand.  One can only imagine that he was not fully tightened for the Muniz (G2), which he won by only a nose, and perhaps closer to the pace than he would have liked to be.  However, he was back to his devastating self in both the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill and the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont.

The Manhattan is particularly worth noting since he left Robert Bruce, who he will face again today, a length and a half behind him, going a mile and a quarter.  They'll meet again going a mile and a quarter in the Arlington Million, and though Robert Bruce is a true mile-and-a-quarter horse and a lover of firm footing, Bricks and Mortar beat him comprehensively enough that it's hard to imagine him turning the tables.  And, in terms of pace?  Bricks and Mortar is adaptable enough that it doesn't look to be a problem.  Yes, he makes his best runs late, but he doesn't have to drop back to the clouds, and should even get something honest in front of him, given that Hunting Horn probably goes, and Bandua and Catcho En Die will not likely be too far back.  All in all, often times the best horse just wins, and Bricks and Mortar is the best horse.

The most intriguing of the new faces is the French shipper: lightly-raced four-year-old Intellogent.  There are questions, of course, since he has not raced since May, has not raced outside of France, and he wasn't facing the Enables, and Crystal Oceans of the world last out in the Prix d'Ispahan (G1).  But?  Intellogent finished well outside in that Prix d'Ispahan, suggesting he can get an advantageous trip from the 9 gate.  He is already a Group 1 winner over firm turf, having won the Prix Jean Prat (G1) last year.  That was at a mile, but he was beaten less than a length in the Prix du Jockey Club (G1) last year, going a mile and five sixteenths. None of his European riders make the trip: but instead, he picks up rider Florent Geroux, who is both familiar with the Arlington course as well as well proven under the heat and pressure of Million Day.  If he was going to pick up an American-based rider, no one spells confidence on a big day at Arlington quite like Florent Geroux.

I had some questions seeing Intellogent out training on Tuesday morning — it wasn't that he was lethargic, but perhaps the exact opposite.  He was hot, this coiled spring worth of energy that looked like it could go off at any time.  Returning to the track on Wednesday morning to train, he was still hot, but not quite as hot as he was on Tuesday, and looked better acclimated.  He is a powerful horse, but Wednesday morning he no longer looked on the brink of losing control of that power.  That's a good thing, still several days out.  Beating Bricks and Mortar still looks like a tough task, but Intellogent has the most upside among the ones who are here to try.

The other two major contenders, Robert Bruce, and Magic Wand are solid horses in their own right, but already have tables to turn on Bricks and Mortar. Preferred between the pair is Robert Bruce.  He won the Million last year and is likely to get firm ground again this year, something that plays in his favor.  This is his perfect distance.  In terms of pace, he likely gets the jump on Bricks and Mortar; it wasn't enough last out in the Manhattan, and if that foe is on the top of his game it probably will not be enough again, but Robert Bruce has some upside making his third start of the year and should find the picture. 

As for Magic Wand?  This is certainly the right class for her, a step below the likes of Enable and Crystal Ocean.  But she hasn't won since the Ribblesdale (G2) at Royal Ascot 2018.  She gets her share of underneath finishes at this kind of level, but that seems to be her more likely ceiling again, assuming she runs in the Million and not the Beverly D.

Selections:

#3 Bricks and Mortar (8/5)

#9 Intellogent (12/1)

#1 Robert Bruce (7/2)

Longshot:  Among the longer shots in the Arlington Million, it makes sense to look at one in improving form with the upside to improve further: specifically, #6 The Great Day (12/1).  Though Bandua beat him last out in the Arlington Handicap (G3), it showed that he can handle the Arlington turf course in broad, sweeping Lane 5.  And with Hunting Horn and Catcho En Die in the picture, The Great Day should have more to chase than he did in the Arlington Handicap. 

Though the Arlington Million is a stiff rise in class from that race, the Arnaud Delacour trainee has shown in his last two starts that he has made the transition from Argentina to the United States well.  The extra sixteenth of a mile should suit The Great Day well, given his strong ten-furlong form in Argentina, and he should be coming on well at the end.  If you're looking for a longshot to sweeten the exotics, look at him.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Test Stakes (G1)

A Tough Test

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Summer racing continues at the “Spa’ with the Test Stakes, featuring three-year old fillies, coming our way this Saturday from Saratoga Racecourse. A competitive field of seven runners will line up on the dirt track and race seven furlongs for the winner's share of the $500,000 purse. An automatic bid to this year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint is on the line.

This intriguing Grade 1 event features Serengeti Empress, the Kentucky Oaks winner, Bellafina, a six-time graded stakes winner, Covfefe, a rising star who set a track record for six-furlongs at Pimlico in May and Royal Charlotte, an undefeated filly who hails from the barn of Chad Brown, the meets leading trainer. The Test is carded as race 8 on Saratoga’s stacked program. Post time is slated for 5:06 PM.

From the rail out, let's take a brief glance at all seven entrants.

PP- Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML odds

1 - Serengeti Empress – Jose Ortiz/Tom Amoss: 7-2 - She made her second lifetime start here last summer as a juvenile, finishing fourth. Since then she’s won multiple graded stakes, including the G2 Rachel Alexandra to kick off her sophomore season, before faltering in G2 Fairgrounds Oaks, where she bled and was vanned off. She recovered from that incident to post a front-running score in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. In the G1 Acorn Stakes, she set a fast pace while under constant pressure, but held for a valiant second behind a winner who won in stakes-record time.

2 - Bellafina – Flavien Prat/Simon Callaghan: 2-1 - California-based runner has won six graded stakes in the last year, making her one of the country’s top 3-year-old fillies. She boasts 7 of 9 in-the-money finishes. The two times she didn’t earn a top three placing was when she raced away from the West Coast. She failed as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks and the BC Juvenile Fillies, both events over the Churchill Downs surface. She has hasn’t raced since her Oaks effort, but has trained energetically leading up to this spot.

3 - Covfefe – Joel Rosario/Brad Cox: 5-2 - Started off her sophomore year with consecutive wins, including the six-furlong G3 Miss Preakness Stakes by 8 ½-lengths in track record time two starts back, before suffering her first loss of 2019 when third in an overnight stake when facing her elders at Churchill last time out. She set a swift pace in that event before giving way.

4 - Trenchtown Cat – Irad Ortiz/Rohan Crichton: 12-1 - South Florida invader has earned a couple of minor stakes victories on her short but impressive resume, as she searches for her first graded stakes win. In her last start, she produced a solid effort when runner-up in the G2 Princess Rooney.

5 - Royal Charlotte – Javier Castellano/Chad Brown: 3-1 - Undefeated grey filly has won four times at four different tracks this year. Three of her victories were decisive off the pace scores, while other win came after a race long duel where she gamely prevailed by a neck. She has done everything asked of her thus far, and this Grade 1 audition is the next logical step for this undefeated gal.

6 - Please Flatter Me – John Velazquez/Mark Reid: 15-1 - Filly has multiple wins against ungraded stakes competition, and although she was no match for the record breaking, runaway winner in the G3 Miss Preakness stakes a couple of starts back, this one did manage a credible second-place finish in that event.

7 - Jeltrin – Luis Saez/Alexis Delgado: 20-1 - Her claim to fame was a 51-1 upset win in the G2 Davona Dale over reigning two-year old champion, Jaywalk, when that one was returning off a four-month layoff. Has not displayed that type of winning form since, nor has the betting public been supportive in subsequent starts. She was 59-1 in the Kentucky Oaks (9th) and 46-1 in the Acorn (3rd). Most recently in the Mother Goose, she was co-second choice at 7-1 behind a heavy favorite.  

ANALYSIS: Practically the entire field of fillies like to race on, or just off the lead, and six of the seven ladies show at least one wire-to-wire score. Three runners in the field boast wins at the tricky seven-furlong distance, having a combined 5 for 5 record. Something is sure to give.

The pace should be extremely hot and that could benefit Royal Charlotte in this spot. She’s proven she can come from off the pace, and gets my call here. Bellafina and Serengeti Empress hold a class edge over the others and both have won at the distance. The former has displayed versatility in terms of running style, a trait that could prove useful against this speedy group. The latter likes to motor on the front end. If she takes command early, she could prove best of the early speed and hold late like she did in her Oaks win.

Handigambling

$60 win on Royal Charlotte and play her in $10 exacta boxes with Bellafina and Serengeti Empress.

Good luck and, as always, enjoy the race.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Whitney Stakes (G1)

  This Year, a Memorable Whitney Stakes

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

 

There have been many memorable Whitney Stakes over the years.  The most memorable for me was August 5, 1973 when my mom brought me with her from our lake house to meet other family members for the Whitney “to see Big Red win” as she put it.  It was my first time to the racetrack and a big deal as I watched Secretariat win the triple crown on TV a few months prior.  Long story short, we watched the race at the finish line standing just outside the winner’s circle.  Just prior to the race I asked my mom to bet Onion for me, I liked the name and his look.  She would not make the bet saying, “we are here to watch Big Red win.”  Well I think you all know how that worked out.  I remember as the horses crossed the finish line with Onion in front the place became so silent you could hear a pin drop.  That was the day my love for horse racing began.

This year’s Whitney Stakes day also promises to be a memorable day as NYRA, the City of Saratoga Springs, and Racing Fans honor the legacy of Marylou Whitney with Marylou Whitney Day.  It goes without saying that Marylou Whitney was Saratoga.  Mrs. Whitney’s commitment to racing and improving the Saratoga community has positively impacted everyone in some form and will continue to for years to come.  On behalf of the ThoroFan family and my family, I thank you Marylou and wish you and your family peace.

On to the race.

1) Imperative 30-1 – A. Quartarolo/J. Bracho

This 9-year-old has had a great career but each time he steps into Graded company he seems up against it.  Stone cold closer will have too much to do when they turn for home.

2) Forewarned 30-1 – U. St. Lewis/D. Davis

Trainer knows how to surprise at big odds.  Runs an honest race most of the time but the step up in class here is too steep to see this one makes any impact at all.

3) Monongahela 12-1 – J. Servis/J. Lezcano

Winner in his last, the Iselin (G3) at Monmouth Park.  Has the one graded win and several seconds in pretty good stakes company but he is another taking a big step up in class.  Should be able to sit just behind the pace and could get a slice.

4) Thunder Snow 3-1 – S. bin Saeed/C. Soumillon

Has earned $16 million. Yet to win in America in 4 starts (all Grade 1’s).  Could be the main speed but also fits just behind the pace if others are more aggressive and then get first run on the leaders.  Has a lot to prove but if he shows up with his A game, he takes this field down.

5) Vino Rosso 6-1 – T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez

For the most part was disappointing as a 3-year-old but seems a bit more confident now at 4.  Prepped well for this spot with a victory in the Gold Cup (G1) in his last.  His two previous runs over the Saratoga ground were not good.  He should be running in the early stages, but can he last?

6) McKinzie 7-5 – B. Baffert/M. Smith

Had a troubled trip in last in the Met Mile (G1).  Has as only one win since he started facing horses older than 3.  Has the running style to be in a great spot for success turning for home.  Finishes in the top two but will the price be too short.

7) Yoshida 12-1 – W. Mott/J. Ortiz

Last victory came at Saratoga in the 2018 Woodward (G1).  Hasn’t show much in three starts this year while running against top competition.  Needs big turnaround in performance in here to hit the board.

8) Preservationist 3-1 – J. Jerkens/J. Alvarado

Lightly raced 6-year-old has won three in a row and has never finished off the board in eight starts.  This will be only his second time he has run three races without a layoff.  Shows up each time he runs and with strong backing at the windows.  To their credit the connections have been very patient with this guy and maybe he is now ready to take over the older division.

Selections

This is a wide-open race.  Questions abound on the pace and who shows up to run.  My top three contenders are the three shortest on the morning line, McKinzie, Thunder Snow, and Preservationist.  Looking for Monongahela to fill out the super.

#6 McKinzie (7-5)

#4 Thunder Snow (3-1)

#8 Preservationist (3-1)

#3 Monongahela (12-1)

Handigambling

$40 Win #6

$10 Exacta Box 6/3-4-8

Cost $100

Have A Day!