Handicapping
this race will require we find an angle that plays nicely with the Woodbine
surface, distance and weather. Lets see how the field stacks-up.
1.
Jessica Krupnick (Uncle Mo) is shipping in for a first
time try at Woodbine and with no synthetic racing surface experience. One of
three that might want the lead out of the gate. Post position not right for
this strategy. With the step-up in class not sure she will be there at the end.
2.
Sky Flower (Flower Alley) is another shipper
without Woodbine experience, albeit a nice record over synthetic tracks. Her
trainer does well on synthetics; 24% win stat. Has been running close to this
class level. Has tactical speed to be running at the end. A piece at best.
3.
Just Be Kind (Sky Mesa) is a local filly who has
been wintering in Florida. There she finished 4th in a grade 2
stakes race at Gulfstream Park in March. Could surprise.
4.
Sugar Jones (Old Forester) is another local horse
who is working bullets for this this comeback after five months off. Although
the right class for these, may need this race to return to best form. Wait
until the next race to invest.
5.
Let It Ride Mom
(Into Mischief) is another one returning home after a six month rest. Last year
won $100K race at Woodbine and competed honestly in Saratoga last summer. Her
last race was a turf-DRF-Key-race where she weakened but 3 of the 11 starters
came back to win races. She is fond of synthetic surfaces, Canadian racing and
going from turf to synthetic. Maybe it is her turn to shine.
6.
Scotty Model (Mr. Scotty) is has been in Arkansas
where she has been preparing for her return north. Shows nice works over a
muddy track at Oaklawn Park. May not be bothered by bad weather Saturday. She
has a 75% in the money record when racing at Woodbine. This includes a 50%-win
record. Her last race, Spring Fever, at Oaklawn Park was a key race, as well.
Look for this mare to be coming at the end with hot jockey Hernandez up. Likely
winner.
7.
Silent Sonet (Silent Name) is returning after a
rest at Gulfstream Park where trainer Gonzalez did well shipping Woodbine horse
into the south Florida track. Bullet workouts suggest she is coming back ready
to fire. Another good one, but with less racing experience than most of the
others.
8.
Moonlite Promise (Malibu Moon) is the Morning Line
favorite at 2-1. Keeps jockey Boulanger for her return to her preferred track
and surface. She is a front runner that
may be compromised by the outside post. At low odds, may be value challenged.
High weight doesn’t offer any encouragement. Maybe.
The
likely foul weather may impact if rain continues at race time. It is likely to
see Jessica Krupnick (#1), Silent Sonet
(#7) and Moonlite Promise (#8)
vying for the lead into the first and lonely turn. Pace should be hot. They
will be pushed by Sky Flower (#2) and
Sugar Jones (#4) for a while. As the
stretch appears these two should fade to the on-rushing three closers – Just Be Kind (#3), Let It Ride Mom (#5)
and Scotty Model (#6).
Here is my prediction
for the finish:
1.
Scotty Model (#6)
2.
Just Be Kind (#3)
3.
Silent Sonet #7)
4.
Jessica Krupnick (#1)
Handigamble play is:
1. $10 Exacta Box #3, #6, #7) = $60
2. $.50 Tri Box #1,#3,#6,#7) = $12
3. $25 to place on # 3 =
$25
4. $1 Exacta Key #1 over #3,#6,#7 =$3
Good Luck but
keep the day job.
