Seven Line Up in Illinois Derby at Hawthorne
Race 5: Illinois Derby (G3), three-year-olds, one
and one eighth miles on the dirt, post time 6:17pm CDT
After a one-year hiatus, the Illinois Derby returns
to Hawthorne for its 59th running on Saturday, April 21. Graded since the
advent of American graded stakes in 1973, it has been a Grade 3 for most of its
history, though it did carry a Grade 2 from 1997 through 2009.
The race has produced one Classic winner: War
Emblem (2002), who won the Illinois Derby for local trainer Frank Springer.
Subsequently purchased by The Thoroughbred Corporation and sent to Bob
Baffert, he went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness (G1), and Haskell
(G1).
Another of its most eminent winners came earlier in
its history. In addition to winning the Illinois Derby at Aurora Downs,
Mata Hari (1934) also beat her own sex on the Chicago circuit: in the Arlington
Lassie Stakes at two and the Illinois Oaks at three. She also beat males
in Kentucky, winning both the Breeders' Futurity and the Kentucky Jockey Club
Stakes at age two.
On the breeding side, the true star to emerge from
the Illinois Derby was Smarten (1979). Smarten produced Canadian champion
sophomore filly Classy 'n Smart -- who herself produced both leading sire Smart
Strike and Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) winner Dance Smartly.
This year's Illinois Derby drew a field of seven to
contest for a $250,000 purse. The field slants toward emerging
sophomores: none of the seven are graded stakes winners yet, only John Battaglia
Memorial It’s Your Nickel has won in
stakes company yet.
The only graded stakes placed horse in the field is
Hedge Fund, from the barn of Todd
Pletcher. Todd Pletcher knows how to win this race; he has four victories
in it already. As for Hedge Fund, he finished third in a race that has
graded out well so far: the Sunland Derby (G3). Winner Hence has not
since race, but second-place Conquest Mo Money finished second in the Arkansas
Derby (G1) last weekend, and fourth-place Irap upset the Blue Grass (G2) two
weeks back. Hedge Fund set the pace in the Sunland Derby, a pace as hot
as the burning New Mexico sun. If he does not repeat that here, he should
be tough. And, there's no reason he has to repeat that. Hedge Fund
graduated just off the pace two back at Gulfstream, and could use that again.
As long as he settles off the pace (most likely set by Stand and Cheer,
though St. Louie Guy could do it, too), he could be tough.
That said, Hedge Fund may not be sufficiently
profitable to merit the risk. And, there is one horse with enough upside
to appeal for the upset: Multiplier.
Multiplier comes in off a maiden win at Fair Grounds last out, in the
third start of his career. He has progressed from start to start.
And, though he is a closer in a race that does not appear likely to fall
apart? Multiplier was able to get moving early enough to close into a
softer pace last time out. That matters -- he has tables to turn on Hollywood
Handsome, but the time they faced each other the track was sloppy. It
stands to be dry in the Illinois Derby. And, though Hollywood Handsome
ran on for fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out, he got some
rabbit-inspired fireworks that will not happen at Hawthorne.
Though this will be a class test for Multiplier,
his first start against winners, trainer Brendan Walsh knows what he is doing.
After all, he has a 19% win rate with last out maiden winners, a 17%
strike rate in graded stakes -- and, a positive ROI in both situations.
The biggest question is whether Multiplier will take to nine furlongs, as
his dam is a Trippi mare who was herself a sprinter, and whose other progeny
preferred going one turn. But, he should be the price to bet he can.
Mr. Misunderstood comes into the Illinois Derby on a three-win
streak, and he has progressed in each of those starts. Though that streak
started in claiming company at Fair Grounds, the next two wins both came
against allowance-optional company over that same oval. Surface, however,
explains why this will be a class test for Mr. Misunderstood: two of his
Fair Grounds victories came over turf, and the one win over dirt came in a
wash-off over the slop. But, like Multiplier, Mr. Misunderstood has shown
that even though he is a closer, he does not need a fiery pace to kick on and
be a factor late. Finally, the trainer inspires confidence. Brad
Cox wins with shippers at a 24% rate -- in short, he doesn't just send his
horses for giggles. If he thinks Mr. Misunderstood is rounding into good
enough form to try the Illinois Derby, that opinion carries weight.
Selections:
#1 Multiplier
#2 Hedge Fund
#6 Mr. Misunderstood
Longshot: Local
trainer Scott Becker sends a pair here, both of whom have both Hawthorne form
and form over some tougher winter circuits like Fair Grounds and Oaklawn.
St. Louie
Guy romped earlier this month at Hawthorne going two
turns, but against far easier foes. His classy form comes at one turn,
and his pedigree screams it, too.
On
the other hand, #4 Stand and Cheer stands a better chance of
getting a mile and an eighth here. The first time he tried two turns, in
a maiden special weight at Hawthorne last fall, he won easily. In his
last two starts, he faced one-other-than company at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn.
He rounded out the exacta in both after setting the early pace. He
may well set the pace here: Hedge Fund is probably better stalking, and St.
Louie Guy rated while routing last out. Still, Stand and Cheer is not
one-way speed; he won his maiden race from a stalking spot, and had some solid
underneath finishes off the pace last year as well. With a pedigree a bit
more suited for distance than his stablemate's, Stand and Cheer is the local
longshot to use on your tickets.
