Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

  

Opinions Split on Classic Winner

The $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the grand finale for 3-year-olds and up, caps off another thrilling year of racing.

Back at Del Mar for the fourth time, this year’s Classic promised to be one for the ages. Although Wednesday’s scratch of standout 3-year-old Sovereignty took some sparkle off the lineup, the 1 1/4-mile showdown still packs serious star power, featuring the top three finishers from last year’s epic renewal.

Returning to Del Mar for the fourth time, this year’s Classic drew a field of ten. What was shaping up to be one of the most talented lineups in the race’s storied history lost a key player Wednesday when standout 3-year-old Sovereignty was scratched. Still, the 1 1/4-mile contest remains loaded, featuring the top three finishers from last year’s edition.

Post time is set for 6:25 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the main track expected to be fast.

The ThoroFan Handicappers weigh in with their picks for the top three plus their favorite longshot bombs to shake up the tote board!

 

May the odds be ever in your favor!

 

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Fierceness	Baeza	Sierra Leone	Forever Young
John Caro	Fierceness	Antiquarian	Mindframe	Forever Young
Nick Costa	Forever Young	Sierra Leone	Journalism	Mindframe
Stuart Mark de Voe	Mindframe	Sierra Leone	Forever Young	Journalism
Robert Marks	Journalism	Fierceness	Sierra Leone	Baeza
Laurie Ross	Sierra Leone	Fierceness	Journalism	Forever Young

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Penn Derby Drama: Can Baeza Shed the Bridesmaid Tag?

By Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate) 

We have the Grade 1 Penn Derby for 3-year-olds with a $1,000,000 purse this Saturday at Parx Racing.

As pointed out by Ed Derosa on X (@EJXD2), this year’s race attracted a grand total of 0 Grade 1 winners, only 1 Grade 2 winner (Magnitude) and 2 Grade 3 Winners (Gosger & Mo Plex).

The good news is that we have a competitive field that should make for good betting opportunities.

 Here is who we like:

Baeza (2-1) Trained by John Shirrifes with Hector Berrios the Jockey, Baeza ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes behind Sovereignty and Journalism and 2nd in the Jim Dandy Stakes. Those races featured the 3-year-old superstar Sovereignty or Journalism; this race does not. Will the Bridesmaid finally step up and win. Pace-wise, it looks like the race sets up nicely for Baeza, with enough speed up front for him to close in. After a busy Spring campaign, he comes into this race off a 56-day layoff and a sharp workout last week at 6 furlongs. The Distance will be no problem, as Baeza has gone 1 1/8 miles or longer in his last four races. If you think he steps up, this is the race.

Gosger (4-1), trained by Brendon Walsh with Luis Saez, is lightly raced but has been in the money all five times, with two wins and three place showings. Like Baeza, he likes to close into a fast pace. Not sure he is as fast as Baeza, but he’s well rested and comes off a bullet workout last week. If he stays anywhere near his 4-1 morning line, there is plenty of value here, and I would jump on him in your exotics. Speed figures show he is just as fast as Baeza so why not take him at double the morning line value over Baeza.

Goal Oriented (5-2). This Baffert-trained horse, with Irad Ortiz Jr. on board, is lightly raced, having started only 4 times, but 2 of those starts have been Grade 1 races: the Preakness (4th place) and the Haskell (3rd place, behind Journalism and Gosger). He’s plenty rested (2 months) and would appear to be ready to take a step up. Gets a Jockey switch from Flavien Prat to the always dangerous Irad Ortiz Jr.

Magnitude (6-1) This Steve Asmussen trainee has plenty of experience, having run 9 times with 4 wins, with last race a well back 2nd to Sovereignty in the Travers. He will be part of the early speed and will appreciate the cut back from the 1 1/4 mile Travers to this race at 1 1/8 miles. He has had injuries and been inconsistent, but speed is always dangerous and figures to be part of the exotics if her runs to his best prior speed figure.

 

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace.

We think front-runners Big Truzz (10-1) and So Sandy (15-1) lead the pace with Magnitude right behind them early.

From there, it’s a stretch duel between the closers Goal Oriented, Gosger and Baeza.

We hope to hit a Trifecta Boxing our 4 highlighted horses. We also think a win bet on Gosger at 3-1 or higher odds is good value.

As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 Budget

$50-win Gosger

$2Trifecta Box: Gosger, Baeza, Goal Oriented, Magnitude (total bet $48)

$2 Longshot pick: Big Truzz (10-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Pacific Classic (G1)

Pacific Classic Worth Writing Home About

By: John Caro, ThoroFan handicapper

Saturday’s Pacific Classic (G1) pits the youngster who has not been out of the money in his lifetime races against older contenders going fast on the dirt for a classic distance.

The $1 million 1 1/4-mile event offers a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, held over this track.  The Pacific Classic post time is 6:11 PM PT.

Michael McCarthy’s Journalism is the second-best 3-year-old in the country, going against older champions that will try to foil his race.

We’ve all seen what Sovereignty has done to his competition. I think that says a lot about Journalism’s chances to win here.  

I’m going to make this brief.

6. Journalism – Never out of the money in 9 lifetime races, speed is on the money for this distance and competition. Top pick for me.

1. Fierceness – If he runs his race, he is a threat to my top pick. In the last two races, it seemed as though he lost his edge. If he gets out and runs the pace or tracks the speed, he can stay on. Johnny V has been on this guy many times, and I expect he will work out a trip. Last workout shows speed.

4. Nysos – The ML favorite and at home with Baffert working him long in training. Great race record, good speed going shorter, and there is my concern. Will he be able to sustain that pace and speed over the distance? When you look at his odds in previous races, you have to wonder how strong the company was. Will be an over bet favorite.

2. Midnight Monmouth  - Has been in the layoff mode since May. He has a really nice work tab that points to a stretch out in distance. This guy can carry the distance and may be part of the pace. On his last visit to Del Mar, he won a Grade 3 race going 1 1/2 miles and finished 10 lengths in front. Great longshot choice. ITM

5. Indispensable  - Very interesting …John Sadler brings Paco Lopez out from the East Coast, in favor of a local jockey, to ride a horse that has never been out of the money at Del Mar, albeit lower level and going shorter. He can keep pace and has broken 100+. He looks to be changing a pace plan.. mid pack and with a closing finish. Breeding says the distance is not out of the question….scary longshot.

8. Tarantino  - Couldn’t keep up with Nysos or Midnight Monmouth in his last two outings. I expect that will be the case for this race as well.

7. Lure Him In – Oldest horse in the race, and although he is competitive with others and is ridden today by a great jockey, I believe he is up against a true class test.

3. Ultimate Gamble – I think this guy is going to try to be the pace setter, and his jockey probably leads Fierceness into the back stretch, then fades. Not that the horse doesn’t have the breeding to go longer, but he’s been trained to go a mile and a bit.

 

So I see the pace being quite quick and fast fractions until a mile and an eighth, and then a closing finish by Journalism.

Handigambling, unusual, but a single bet will make my day. No need to spend a lot here.

$2 Trifecta  6 with 1,2,4,5 with All $48

Good Luck

Bonus Bet Kentucky Downs Race 10 - Nashville Derby

2 with 4,6,9 with 1,4,6,9,11,1