Handicapper's Corner: Santa Anita Oaks (G1)

Songbird Singing Her Tune in Santa Anita Oaks

by: Laurie Ross

This year’s Santa Anita Oaks (G1) attracted six hopeful three-year-old fillies and one Songbird. The 1 1/16-mile event is the last step for California fillies on their way to the Kentucky Oaks.

#1 SONGBIRD (Medaglia d'Oro - Ivanavinalot, by West Acre) hasn’t put a hoof wrong in her six race career.  Last year’s Juvenile Filly Champ picked up in 2016 where she left off, galloping along on the front end and winning the Las Virgenes and Santa Ysabel stakes by daylight.  Songbird has been compared physically to another daughter of Medaglia d'Oro,  Champion Rachael Alexandra.   

Half of the Santa Anita Oaks field has viewed Songbird’s impressive hindquarters in previous races. Unless something untoward happens, Songbird will perform her customary romp against this group.  Who can check in for a minor award?  

#7 BELLAMENTARY (Bellamy Road - Shananies Song, by Eltish) has improved in each of her three starts. She has the speed to take the lead if Songbird will let her and appears to be best of the rest.  

The longest shot on the board at 30-1, #4 KAY KAY (Pleasantly Perfect - All of Her Twist, by Forest Wildcat) is the only stalker in the field.  In her first start of the year, the Vladimir Cerin charge chased a loose on the lead Bellamentary.  The added distance should help and she’ll be fit for her second start. 

#5 FOREVER DARLING (Congrats - Darling My Darling, by Deputy Minister) has a bad/good race cycle and is coming up to a “good” race.  She had excuses for her two stakes losses, an ambitious start in BC Juvenile Fillies after winning her maiden, and shipping for the Rachael Alexandra (G2) last time out.  In between, she scored a victory in the Santa Ynez (G2).  Her dam is a multiple G1 winner and a half-sister to Japanese Champ Zeno Rob Roy.  Richard Baltas puts first time blinkers on Forever Darling.  If she runs back to her Santa Ynez form, she’ll be competitive for second or third place.

#2 SHE’S A WARRIOR (Majestic Warrior - Blabby B., by Tabasco Cat) is still a maiden, but only by the narrowest of noses.  She tries hard and almost caught that elusive first victory, but she’s hindered by speed favoring tracks. Her speed figures aren’t that bad and she could claim a minor award.

Poor #3 JADE PRINCESS has had a view of Songbird fading into the distance in three starts.  The Baffert trainee has an excellent pedigree, but isn’t up to this level of competition, even if Songbird wasn’t in the race. 

#6 MOKAT (Uncle Mo - Flashy Frolic, by Premiership) has shown her preference for turf. She doesn’t belong here.

SELECTIONS:

#1 SONGBIRD

#7 BELLAMENTARY

#4 KAY KAY  

#5 FOREVER DARLING

#2 SHE’S A WARRIOR

HANDIGAMBLING:

A short field with an overwhelming favorite isn’t a good betting race and I would recommend avoiding the betting window, sit back and enjoy watching Songbird romp. However, sure things on paper don’t always pan out on the track. Even Secretariat and Zenyatta lost.  So, if you must wager, here’s my suggestion:

Total bet $72

$2 Trifecta Key = $24   1/7,4,5

$2 Super Key = $48      1/7,4,5,2

$28 towards hanging out at the infield Brewfest.

Handicapper's Corner: Gulfstream Park Oaks (GII)

Uncle Mo’s Big Day  -   Handicapping the Gulfstream Park Oaks (GII)

By: Michael Amo — ThoroFan

Positioned as the stepchild to this weekend’s Florida Derby, the Gulfstream Park Oaks has some interesting connections to its big brother.  The seven horse field, mile and a sixteenth race for fillies provides the 2016 debut for Gomo. She is a the daughter of sire Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo is also the sire of Nyquist who runs in the Florida Derby later on the Saturday’s card. The pair are trained by Doug O’Neill and appear to be coast-to-coast traveling companions. Nyguist comes to take on Mohaymen and a chance for the $1,000,000 Fasig Tipton bonus. The pair are owned by premier racing ownership, Redman Racing LLC. With the millions on the line for Nyquist he clearly is here to win. But what about Gomo? 

1   Paola Queen (Flatter) is bred well but is coming off only a maiden win at Gulfstream. Will be a speed factor from the rail, but not likely to win.

2    Double Entendre ( American Lion) is another Gulfstream winner of a maiden race hoping to move up. She is one of three in the race with some distance experience. May be a longshot value in the exotics.

3    Go Maggie Go (Ghostzapper) is another trying to break into graded company. In her case distance may be her biggest obstacle to success. 

4    Mo’ Green (Uncle Mo) hails from south Florida with a 1 for 2 win record over the track, albeit at the maiden level. Will be trying to make presence known in the stretch.

     

Gomo (Uncle Mo) is making her 2016 debut from an impressive 2-year-old campaign winning the Alchibiades at Keeneland in October. Working solidly at Santa Anita for this effort. She is listed 5^th in the 2015 Experimental Free Handicap for fillies with a weight of 118 pounds, only seven pounds under the top filly Songbird. Likely winner.

     Hold On Momma (Hold Me Back) gets Lasix for the first time, however distance may be her problem.

7 

Off the Tracks (Curlin) has royal breeding and won a grade 3 at Saratoga. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velasquez this girl could be the threat to Gomo. She has won a stakes race this year at Gulfstream.  Beyer followers may like her better than Gomo.

With little speed in the race and only a few with distance experience, this race should be a jockey’s race. Combing distance and class it seems like this may be a two horse race.

Picks:

     1.   Gomo (5)

     2.   Off the Tracks (7)

     3.   Double Entendre (2)

     4.   Hold On Momma (6)

Bets;

$40 Exacta Box 5 and 7 ($80)

$20 Exacta 5 over 7 ($20)

Good Luck, but keep the day job!

Handicapper's Corner - Davona Dale Stakes (G2)

Cathryn Sophia Makes Davona Dale a Tricky Race

by Reinier Macatangay of Lady and The Track

Cue the laugh track. The idea of any filly defeating Cathryn Sophia in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII), scheduled for this Saturday at Gulfstream Park, just seems funny at first thought. It is good practice to analyze the race anyway.

Trained by John Servis, Cathryn Sophia has compiled a 3 for 3 record for Cash Is King LLC. Each of those wins appear impressive and came with a lofty speed figure. 

Cathryn Sophia broke her maiden at PARX, which granted is not a strong racetrack in terms of quality. She won by 12 lengths and earned a 99 BRIS Speed Rating. Then she went to Laurel Park to compete in an ungraded stakes race. Cathryn Sophia went to the lead and took them wire to wire by 16 lengths for a 102 BRIS Speed Rating. 

It is dangerous to assume horses with impressive wins at second-tier tracks can duplicate their form elsewhere. But then again, Cathryn Sophia traveled to Gulfstream Park and won by over five lengths in the Forward Gal (GII). The Forward Gal proved her form translates to a top-tier racetrack and graded stakes competition.

The stakes victory came at the distance of seven furlongs, while the Davona Dale is one mile. However, the configuration of Gulfstream’s dirt track means they only go around one turn when racing at the mile distance.

If Cathryn Sophia loses, factors others than ability (such as disqualification or dumping the jockey) will be at play. 

In an unthinkable scenario, perhaps the rail horse Thrilled steps up for trainer Todd Pletcher. Sure, finishing second in a slow Grade II race at Aqueduct is nothing to brag about, but there is a chance Thrilled matured since last November. Speed figures do not remain stagnant for young horses, giving her a slight chance. 

The filly in the second post position, Dearest, also looks decent enough and enters with a 2 for 2 record. Her career debut win was earned at Gulfstream Park West, while the latter victory came at Gulfstream. 

Two spots right, Lewis Bay starts for trainer Chad Brown and she actually defeated Thrilled in the Aqueduct race. Note the six-length win going seven furlongs at Belmont Park two races ago. 

For a longshot underneath in the trifecta, it might be fun to put Rontos Lily in the third spot. If she goes to the lead, she is toast, but if the jockey lets other speed horses become cooked by Cathryn Sophia and company, Rontos Lily can pick off a few horses for a respectable finish. 

Taking a shot with Rontos Lily seems better than spending money on R Girls a Charmer, who almost certainly needs the lead and will be toasted by whoever challenges her early on. 

Realistically speaking though, this is a tough race to bet and handicappers should shy away from most vertical wagers in a race where the superstar favorite deserves the attention and hype. Cathryn Sophia not only stands as the best or second best female 3-year-old sprinter, she can defeat most colts out there as well. 

Bridgejumpers tend to be interested in these kinds of races, and in that case, placing a show bet on any horse with tactical or closing speed, and not named Cathryn Sophia, might be a wise idea. Remember in 1998, when Gentlemen finish fourth as the 1-20 favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap (GI)? Horse racing is a strange sport. 

Still, there must be more profitable races filled with value out there somewhere. Find them. 

$100 Pretend Wager: $25 Trifecta Backwheel - Cathryn Sophia / Thrilled, Dearest, Lewis Bay, R Girls a Charmer / Rontos Lily