Longshots can Bloom in Apple Blossom Stakes
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
The $1.25 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes features nine older fillies and mares traveling 1 1/16 miles over the Oaklawn Park oval.
The track should be fast, but the par speed listed on the Brisnet form (100) is in question from my perspective. I think the par is closer to 97.
We have several who like to be on the lead, with many who like to track a leader. If the track plays as usual, closers will be left behind, relegated to the bottom of the exotics.
Carded as Race 10 of 12, post time is 5:47 PM CT. Let’s review the field.
#1 Nitrogen – Casse/Ortiz, J – She has never been out of the money in 14 starts, with half of them wins. She has the most graded-stakes experience and $2+ million in earnings to her credit. Last out she didn't appreciate the wet track and didn't finish in a straight path. She lost to the next two listed below. 9/5 odds. Always a Contender.
#2 Majestic Oops – Ward/Arrieta - Won the Azeri last out against Nitrogen, loves Oaklawn with 8 races, 4 wins and 2 placings. Arrieta was aboard for three of those wins shown on the form. She's a tracker and can close to finish from midpack as well. Good choice for a win contender at a good price 9-2.
#3 Regaled – Beckman/Ramos - She is a late closer and used that talent to finish second behind Majestic Oops in the Azeri by 3/4. Has had 15 starts on fast tracks with two wins, one placing and four thirds. In her four starts on off track conditions, she hasn't been out of the exacta and won twice. If the track was wet, I'd give her a shot. Bottom of exotics.
#4 Dazzling Move – Joseph/Gonzalez - Recent form doesn't look so good, but she's been off for 77 days with six works and adds blinkers for this one. Looking back at her races, she was competitive and speedy when going to the front. I think Saffie has a plan, and Gonzalez is the type of rider that can move her on the front or nearly so. Could make an impression on the pace and will likely be in the lower exotics. 15-1
#5 Om N Joy - Ordonez/Desormeaux - Her races have, for the most part, been against state-bred or restricted races. This will be quite a test. She's only had one race this year, about 35 days ago. Two works since her last, and is a closer when she wins. Think the competition will be too much, given her speed figures going a route of ground. Toss
#6 Nerazurri – Casse/Torres - Her form is excellent, and she loves Oaklawn with 4 races, 3 wins and a placing this year. Likes the lead but doesn't need it to win. Although not tested against this level, except for her place finish against Nitrogen at this track, gives me confidence that she will show up in the exotics and my surprise with a win. Must use. 6-1
#7 Five G – Weaver/Velasquez - Last seen winning with Johnny V up against lesser going a mile. She's had some good wins, including the Gulfstream Oaks and a second in the Honeybee here last year. Johnny put her on the bridle last year in the Cash Run and won by 9. He could put her on the lead and stroll through the backstretch and leave them flat-footed if others let him get away with it. Dangerous at 10-1.
#8 Claret Beret – Joseph/Husbands - She likes to come from off the pace as she did at Gulfstream, going the distance in the Royal Delta, winning by 5 lengths. I believe if she moves closer to the pace, she can close with the best in the field. Must use at 8-1.
#9 Blue Fire – Asmussen/Geroux - Coming from the outside post is not helping her front-running style going against smaller fields but Geroux is a patient rider and skilled at making a move at the right point in a race. At 15-1 I'll use him in the exotics and a small win wager given her late pace figure.
Handigambling menu….you must decide how large your wagers should be.
Going to stick with #2 Majestic Oops on top and the 6, 7 and 8 are likely in the money
$.50 Trifecta – 2 with 1,6,7,8 with All $14
$1 Exacta Box – 2,6,7,8,9 $20
$.50 Superfecta - 8 with 2,7 with All with All $42 (If available, a $.10 Super cost $8.40 but should pay well if the 8 is on top of 2 or 7)
Longshot player’s Win wagers on 6,7,8,9 Dutch your win wagers on theses four and play the exacta box above.
Like $6 win 9, $9 win 7, $11 win 8, & $14 win 6. Each would pay $96-99 given the ML odds.
$60 total for the win and exacta box.
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