Louisiana Derby Value Plays
By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper
Saturday, the $1,000,000 Twinspires.com Grade 2 Louisiana Derby kicks off at 1 3/16th miles with a nine-horse field with a 5:42 PM CT post time.
There are many viable options to choose from, including Cherie DeVaux, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Brad Cox, and more. Let’s review the best bets and betting strategy.
None of today’s entries have raced at this distance yet, so it really is anyone’s race. With two Cherie DeVaux options, I am going with #5 Golden Tempo (7-2) as my top pick.
Brad Cox has two horses coming off Maiden wins. I am going to take #8 Easterly (6-1) for my second choice. Most people will probably put Baffert’s Blacksmith or Brown’s Emerging Market on top, but they seem too obvious and won’t go off at a price. Therefore, #3 Chip Honcho (3-1) and #4 Universe (12-1).
TOP PAIR:
#5 Golden Tempo & #8 Easterly
I love Golden Tempo for many reasons. There are several early pacesetters in this race with #7 Blacksmith (6-1) and #8 Easterly (6-1).
Other potential pace setters could be #9 Emerging Market (6-1) and #1 Pavlovian (6-1).
Golden Tempo struggled in the Risen Star to find a clear path, leading to him going four wide. He couldn’t get there on time. This horse can cover a lot of ground quickly. He also fits my rested criteria. Consistently increased Beyer speed, and he keeps DeVaux’s go-to jock, Jose Ortiz. Golden Tempo is sure to be the amazing closer we know.
#8 Easterly is my choice of the Brad Cox horses. He has speed, is rested, and has good distance. The only downside is he’s moving up significantly in class, which could hinder a win, but still keep him in the money.
BOTTOM PAIR:
#3 Chip Honcho & #4 Universe
#3 Chip Honcho could surprise and take the win with Jockey Luis Saez onboard for Trainer Steve Asmussen. He placed second in the Risen Star by a half-length, so he has the speed and distance. Can he get there in time? I think he will go to the front with either Blacksmith or Emerging Market. I just have a theory about Steve Asmussen: he's had more Allowance Claiming and Maiden winners than Stakes winners over the last year or so, which makes my trust in Chip Honcho falter. I am glad Saez remains on him, as I think he has the best chance for keeping Chip Honcho on the lead to finish in the money.
Lastly, my picks round out with #4 Universe. My whole objective is to find prices. Universe can add significant value to this superfecta. He finished 4th in the Risen Star; however, he kept gaining positions. His last two starts were from the inside rail, which alone could be a reason to toss them out.
Universe placed 3rd in the G1 Champaign against Napoleon Solo, jumping from a 68 Beyer in his Maiden to an 83. Wavering in the Smarty Jones, he came back to speed form in the Risen Star. McPeek putting Brian Hernandez, Jr. aboard is enough for me to include him in my Super.
$10 Win: 5 Golden Tempo
$2 Exacta box: 5-8
.50 Trifecta box: 5-8-3
.10 Superfecta box: 5-8-3-4
Total Bet: $19.40
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