Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Santa Margarita (G2)

 The heat is on in Santa Margarita Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $200,000 Grade 2 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita attracted a small competitive field of six older fillies and mares on Sunday’s card.

Formerly a Grade 1 contest, the Santa Margarita list of winners includes Zenyatta and her sister Balance, Life is Sweet, Nashoba’s Key and Adare Manor, who captured the last two editions of the 1 1/8 mile event.

The Santa Margarita is featured as race 3 of 10 with a post time of 2:05 PM PT.

Let’s review the field.

Liberal Lady returns to Santa Anita, where she has a 7-2-0-1 record. She’s been hit-or-miss against lesser types but can press the pace. The Leonard Powell trainee is up against better fillies, and her Brisnet late-pace figures are some of the lowest in the Santa Margarita, but if she settles a few lengths off a hot pace, she has a shot to light up the exotics.

The lightly raced Princess of Time has only four starts under her girth. This 5-year-old didn’t make it to the races until last April when she was off slow and bumped in a turf maiden race. MIA until this January, the Mike McCarthy trainee bested maidens by 2 1/2 lengths at six furlongs. Princess of Time did the same in her next start, then was third against optional claimers at a mile. While her Brisnet ratings are competitive, Princess of Time adds distance, faces more experienced foes, and will be challenged on the front end. Pass.

Where’s My Ring scratched from the Gamely (G1) for a more suitable spot on the dirt. She’s coming off a third-place finish in the Apple Blossom (G1) and captured the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle (G3) last year. She was off until this March when she bested optional claimers at Oaklawn. Now she’s making her first start for Peter Miller, who has 2 winners from 16 starters after a trainer switch. Both winners were turf sprinter – milers. Where’s My Ring has tactical speed and can settle off the just off the pace. She’s also one of two in here with a victory at 1 1/8 miles. Contender.

Splendora has faced better in her quest for a graded win. She was second to Kopion in last year’s La Brea (G1) and fourth behind that rival in the Santa Monica (G2). Kopion ran away with the  Derby City Distaff (G1) in her last start and is one of the top sprinters in the country.

The Bob Baffert trainee chased Richi (Chi) in the Santa Maria (G2) in her last start. Splendora earned a career-best 105 Brisnet speed rating in her last start, and her late-pace figures are the best in the field. She’s only won on the lead, but she has plenty of early zip, having set a 12.56 first quarter in her second start. Baffert captured the last two editions of the Santa Margarita with Adare Manor. While Splendora isn’t in that one’s league, she could run this group off their feet – if she can carry her speed. Contender.

Alpha Bella scratched from the Gamely (G1). She hasn’t won since January 2024, when she captured the 1 1/2 mile La Prevoyante (G3) over the Gulfstream lawn. The John Sadler trainee is consistently in the money against Grade two and Grade 3 types on dirt, and switches back to dirt after a one-length loss in the Wilshire (G3). John Sadler has a 34% win rate with this angle, but 59% of his charges hit the board. Alpha Bella only wins while on the lead; otherwise, she’s a solid exotics play.

When she has the lead, Seismic Beauty is unstoppable. She captured her second start last year by five lengths after dueling through quick early fractions. Bob Baffert’s charge didn’t get the lead in her next pair of starts against optional claimers and was green down the lane. Once straightened out, she had every opportunity but stayed behind the pacesetter.

In her second start against optional claimers, Seismic Beauty broke a step slow from the rail. She rushed up but had to tap on the brakes. Down the lane, JJ Hernandez tried to push Seismic Beauty through a hole, but she didn’t want any part of that and finished a non-threatening third. The experiment ended in her last start against optional claimers, this time at a mile. Seismic Beauty broke confidently, established the lead, and won by ten lengths, as an even-money favorite should.

The question is – can Seismic Beauty carry her speed 1 1/8 miles? Uncle Mo’s daughter is out of a stakes-placed sprinter by Medaglia d’Oro, and the little blacktype in her immediate family is speed-oriented. However, her breeding suggests that Seismic Beauty can handle 1 1/8 miles. She’s a wildcard, as we don’t know how she’ll react to being challenged on the lead. Her late-pace figures are in the mid-80s, but her mid-race figures are in the 100s. Talented but quirky. Exotics.

Analysis

Five of the last 12 Santa Margarita heroines won or placed in the Santa Maria. Speed rules at Santa Anita. Five of the previous 12 winners set the pace, while the majority of the rest were pressers. Bet the favorite. None have placed worse than fourth in 12 years, and four of the last five won.

Splendora fits the historical winner’s profile. The Grade 1-placed filly has plenty of speed but is a vulnerable favorite.

Where’s My Ring has experience at 1 1/8 miles and can press the pace.

Alpha Bella is predictable and generally cashes a check.

Seismic Beauty could get the lead and run away. Otherwise, her competitive nature is questionable.

 Selections

3. Where’s My Ring (5-2)

4. Splendora (6-5)

5. Alpha Bella (5-1)