Wagering Tactics for the Ruffian Stakes
By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper
The $200,000 Ruffian Stakes attracted a field of 11 older fillies and mares who will travel a mile around the Aqueduct main oval during the Belmont at the Big A meet.
The Grade 2 event is listed as race 10 of 11 on a stakes-filled day, with a 6:16 PM ET post time.
There’s a lot to choose from in the Ruffian Stakes.
My top 4 horses are 10-9-4-6. Personally, I am not a Chad Brown fan. He has three horses in this race, with #3 Catherine Wheel also entered at Monmouth Race 5 on May 11.
Beyond that, I think there are other horses that can beat them. Saffie Joseph, Jr. has three horses entered with #7 Claret Beret also entered at Gulfstream Park Race 8 on May 11.
#2 Morning Matcha with Trainer Robert Reid, Jr. is entered in Race 5 at Monmouth as well.
For these reasons, I want to avoid potential scratches
and exclude them right away. The only horse I would be concerned about with
Chad Brown is #11 Headline Numbers with Jockey Dylan Davis. However, it
is still not enough for me to include her.
TOP PAIR: #10 My Mane Squeeze and #9 Gun Song
I love #10 My Mane Squeeze, as I remembered she was entered in the G1 Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs on May 3, 2025, but scratched, likely because her connections felt she had a better chance this weekend in this race. I had wanted to include her in my picks then, so I am including her now.
She’s had 2 starts at this distance and surface and won both starts. She came off a near 5-month layoff in the G1 Madison at Keeneland at 7F, placed third, and earned a 95 Beyer Speed figure. I would say she came back in fighting fit form. One could argue she’s a presser and a closer, which could set her up to win as this race has several speed horses.
Trainer Michael Maker has decent percentages for horses coming off of layoffs. When paired with one of the top jockeys, Mannie Franco, at Belmont at the Big A, this is a winning duo that can’t be denied.
#9 Gun Song is my price shot in the trifecta. Her last race on March 13 appears to be a prep race. While she didn’t exactly earn a Beyer speed figure in fighting fit form after a significant layoff, she still finished third for going four-wide nearly the whole way.
She seems to do best when out in the front. I like her bullet workout second time back, as well as her other workouts where she’s still at the top for horses that day. Since she has that bullet workout, Gun Song still fits within my “rested” criteria (off 30-60 days, 10% win rate, high speed figures, paid less than $4.80 last time out). Let’s not forget she has plenty of experience in stakes races as well. Hopefully, jockey Johnny V can get her to the front and get a win for Trainer Mark Henning.
BOTTOM PAIR: #4 Sterling Silver and #6 Dazzling Move
I really wanted to place #4 Sterling Silver; however, I wanted more of a price in my exacta. I am concerned with Sterling Silver coming out of several state-bred races and jumping to a Grade 2.
While she has had some success at stake races, she has yet to win any above a handicap. Her last race at a mile was in the mud, while she won, and came back in fighting fit form after a significant layoff, we might want to look at the last time she won at a mile on fast dirt. That would be August 7, 2024, at Saratoga. I do think she has the speed to get in the trifecta. The Jockey/Trainer combo is 24% out of 21 starts for the year with Javier Castellano and Trainer Bill Mott, just hot off his Derby win.
#6 Dazzling Move
With one Saffie horse as a potential scratch, I had to consider who might be his rabbit. #5 Here’s the Kicker has more early speed than #6 Dazzling Move, who likes to more of a presser type. So, I think #5 is the rabbit for #6. She’s had 5 starts at this distance and won 3 times, although it’s been a minute since she won at this distance. Saffie is dropping her down from a Grade 1 to a potentially more suitable class level in this Grade 2.
Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. usually delivers for Saffie Joseph, Jr.; however, he hasn’t had near the winning streak lately as he normally does so that’s why I included him in the Super and nothing more.
My Plays:
$10 Win bet on #10
$2 exacta box: 10-9 ($4 total)
.50 trifecta box: 10-9-4 ($3 total)
For fun: .10 superfecta box: 10-9-4-6 ($2.40 total)
TOTAL BET: $19.40
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