Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Royal Heroine (G3)

 Is there a heroine in this race?

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Member

The Breeders’ Cup races that debuted in 1984 were run at Hollywood Park. It began what was thought to be an experiment in showcasing some of the best Thoroughbreds currently racing.

I am not sure the founders expected it to continue and grow over next 40 years.  It did. Royal Heroine won the Mile Turf race that day and went on to a fabulous racing career.

This week the “Corner” race is a mile turf race honoring this spectacular female horse. The field is large with 13 fillies and mare, 4-years-old and up running the 8 furlongs on the turf for a share of the 100,000 purse. Clearly the low purse size by current standards doesn’t reflect the quality of this field. It should be an exciting race.

The weather at Santa Anita on Saturday is predicted to be cloudy with a change of rain (not much). Here is the field.

1.   Public Assembly (More Than Ready) Is an April foal trying graded company for the first time. The pace should be quick. She gets a new jockey and working bullets for this start. The large field may cause her traffic problems if she doesn’t get of the gate well. Major disadvantage.

2.   Raw Ability (IRE) (Belardo) Is an undefeated Irish bred keeping the jockey that got her wins in the last two starts. 2^nd off a layoff for excellent trainer. Trying graded company. She can run on the front end or close. Very versatile. Should pushing be the pace but can she finish fast?

3.   Sneaker (Oscar Performance) Showed well over the turf at Santa Anita finishing 4^th, giving up the lead at the end. Gets new jockey Van Dyke. Should get out and sit in second flight waiting for the front runners to back up.

4.   Uncorked (AUS) (Pierro) Has plenty of graded experience finishing 2^nd in the Yellow ribbon at Del Mar. Gets Mike Smith up for Philip D’Amato, the trainer that holds the record in this race with four wins. Working well. Needs to get in closer position down the backside if wants to win. Has the right jockey for the task.

5.   Venganza (Curlin) Likes Santa Anita with a respectable finish last out here in a grade 3 race. Won two of her last three races. Missed in a grade three. Needs good position and a strong close to be competitive.

6.   Tirupati (Mitole) Out of the gate and fast. Looked good in grade 2 and showed well in grade 3. This race suits her well. Right sire for this distance. Jockey improvement. The one to catch, if they can.

7.   Sun of Hill (BRZ) (Camelot Kitten) Needs a better Beyers to compete here. Top jockey goes to Morning Line Favorite. One of faster closers. Could scare. Needs a top ride against these.

8.   Mucho Macho Girl (Mucho Macho Man) Same Jockey that rode her in her last race with a win.  Working OK. Stronger Beyers needed. May be in it until the stretch.

9.   Eternal Reign (IRE) (Invincible Spirit) Will be in the mix to the stretch. If she has gas left in tank could be dangerous from eighth pole to wire. Another D’Amato entry. Likes Santa Anita.

10.Valence (Violence) Has raced against much better. Will try for the lead. First time at Santa Anita. May not be competitive with group.

11.Hamwood Flier (IRE) (Kodiac) Worked bullets at Santa Anita which should end any concern for being eased last. As fast as any in the field. Grade 1 &2 performances good. Positive jockey change for a top trainer. Hard to gage. Could surprise.

12.Baltic Fire (IRE) (Flameaway) Works well. May not get out of pack to make a showing. Tried grade one but failed. Rested. Retains previous jockey.  

13.Lunar Impact (GB) (Zoustar) Seems to like Santa Anita racing. Stepping up into graded stakes. Tough position for a front runner. Likely to be up close but when the race gets hot she may go in the wrong direction. Long layoff not the best for her. Has to stay in the mix if anything good to happen.

Analysis

Getting position out of the gate in a field of 13 is fraught with luck and superior jockeying. This is true for horses close to the rail as well as those far out. In the case of the former group getting enveloped into the pack in a mile race is disastrous. In the latter group using energy to secure the best position into the first turn may be equally perilous.

For that reason, I see the winner coming from the center of the field. Tirupati (#6) has serious early speed and has many options. Her Beyers stands out. She loves Santa Anita’s 8 furlong grass course. Her odds cause a betting dilemma.

Sneaker (#3) with Van Dyke up and Eternal Reign (#9) for trainer D’Amato, the winningest trainer of this race, should sit perfect in case favorite fails. Their odds should be attractive in exotics.

Uncorked (#4) with Mike Smith up should be positioned for strong run in the lane. Scratches could change the complexion of the race.

If any of top four are scratched, add Hamwood Flier (#11) at long shot odds to your ticket.

How they will finish:

6. Tirupati (2-1)

3. Sneaker (15-1)

4. Uncorked (7-2)

9. Eternal Reign (12-1)

11. Hamwood Flier (10-1)----On deck in case of scratch

Handigamble ($100):

Tirupati $40 to win

$1 Trifecta Box: #3, #4, # 6 and #9 =  $24

$2 Trifecta Key: #6 with #3, #4, #7 and #9 with #3, #4, #7 and #9 + = $24

$2 Exacta Box: #3, #4, and #6  = $12

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Oaklawn Handicap (G2)

 Wagering Tactics for the Oaklawn Handicap

By: Robert Marks, (X: @theyreinthegate)

All eyes may be on the 3-year-olds as we are 2 weeks away from the Kentucky Derby, but the 2025 Oaklawn Handicap, set for this Saturday, April 19, at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas, is a very competitive race for older horses (4 years old and up).

Previous winners include Cigar, Lawyer Ron, and Will Take Charge.

With a purse of $1.25 million, this Grade 2 event over 1 1/8 miles on dirt has attracted a field rich in talent, featuring a field of 9 horses. Carded as race 11 of 12, post time for the Oaklawn Handicap is 6:10 PM CT.

Here is who we like:

The returning winner from the 2024 Oaklawn Handicap is Skippylongstocking at 5-2 morning line odds, trained by Joseph Saffie Jr. with Irad Ortiz Jr. the Jockey.  This 6-year-old comes off a last-out win in the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay. If weights are important to your handicapping, please note that Skippylongstocking will carry high weight at 123 pounds (compared to Go West Go at the low weight of 112 pounds.) Skippylongstockings’ win last year in this race garnered a high Beyer Speed figure.  His run type is early pace, but can also race just off the pace and then track.  Definitely a must-use horse and has the Foundation with over 3 million in lifetime earnings and 10 wins.

First Mission (2-1) trained by Brad Cox, is the morning line favorite. The Jockey is Flavien Prat, who will be on board for the 1^st time as Florent Geroux ran him for the last five mounts. Only 11 lifetime starts for this 5-year-old, but 9 of them have been graded stakes. Has raced twice at Oaklawn with a win and a 3^rd place finish last time out in the Grade 3 Razorback, where he went off as the favorite (Alexander Helios was the winner). Has not raced in 55 days and had a bullet workout last Sunday. Prat has been winning at Oaklawn at a 26% rate so this is a definite upgrade on the Jock aboard. Probably the best late speed in the field.

Alexander Helios (4-1) trained by Joseph Saffie Jr., also comes off a 1^st place finish at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap with a game finish over Banishing and First Mission. Had an impressive speed rating in the Razorback. There is a jockey switch from Tyler Gaffalione to Luiz Saez (aboard for the 1^st time) Distance will not be an issue with 2 placings out of 2 runs in the distance and his late pace speed competes well with this field.  Could we see a repeat of the Razorback where Alexander Helios held off Banishing and First Mission?  Both Alexander Helios and First Mission are well rested at 55 days but Banishing ran the Oaklawn Mile, winning it on March 29^th. Seems like Banishing to me cannot get the 1 1/8 distance so we will throw him out of first 3 placings.  Since Saffie Jr took over as trainer 3 races ago, Alexander Helios seems to be in great form.

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace.

We think front runners Tarantino and Banishing lead the pace with First Mission, Skippy Longstocking and Alexander Helios running a tracking pace coming into the last turn.

From there it’s a stretch duel between First Mission, Skippy Longstocking and Alexander Helios.

We hope to hit a Trifecta Boxing our 3 highlighted horses with Banishing thrown in. We also think a win bet on Alexander Helios at 3-1 or higher odds is good value.

As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Handigambing

$100 dollar Budget

$50-win Alexander Helios

$2Trifecta Box: Alexander Helios, First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Banishing (total bet $48)

$2 Longshot pick: Disarm (10-1)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Wagering Tactics for the Apple Blossom Handicap

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $1.25 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap is Oaklawn’s premier race for older fillies and mares. When I got the chance to write this, my comment was, “This will be a brief article.” And it will be.

The 1 1/16 mile event attracted seven contenders despite the presence of last year’s Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, who is making her 4-year-old debut. The Apple Blossom is featured as race 11 of 12 with a 5:48 PM CT post time.

#6 Thorpedo Anna is reminiscent of Rachel Alexander in the last decade. Winning against almost all comers, including the boys. If this is a class race, she wins based on the level of races and her competition. What a great record, and her speed figures are amazing. After a four-month layoff, she comes back in the Azeri to win by 3+ at this track and pushed a 95 Brisnet speed figure over a wet sealed track.

The thing is, there is only one in the field on the PPs that shows speed that can come close to her last, and that’s #5 Where’s My Ring at a much lower class rating, some 8 points below that of Anna’s last outing. And this is Anna’s second off the layoff. Better is yet to come.

Don’t get me wrong, there are some who have faced Anna in the past and made some money in the placings.

#3 Free Like a Girl came in second to Anna in the Azeri at 20-1 and has the most ITM experience over this track. #7 Wild Bout Hilary won the Bayonkoa here by a head against Free Like a Girl at 7-1 in a field of 8.

The others

We have a state-bred sprinter coming off a 386 day break in #4 Noble Miss, an Optional Claimer coming in for a low-level trainer who’s new to the mare in #1 Sweet Alyssa, and Steve Asmussen brings a black type racer who hasn’t hit the board since a turf race in November. I don’t think any of the three can match the skills of those above, let alone Anna.

How to play this, and is it worthy of playing.

If you’re a gambler, of course, you’ll play because that’s what you do. But what is to be gained? Don’t expect a big payday if Anna wins, which is highly likely. She only paid $.10 on a dollar last out.

If you’re a Handigambler, here is some options……a single wager and/or a punt and a multi-race wager.

$5 Superfectas  -  6 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7 with 3,5,7  = $30

The Punt  - $5 to Place and $8 to Show on 3 and 7 if their odds stay above 7-1 = $26

Multi Race wager

$1 Pick 3 Race 9,10,11  -  8,9,10 with 1,4,6 with 6 =  $9

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Wagering Tactics for the Blue Grass Stakes

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello racing fans, due to severe weather forecast for this upcoming weekend in the Lexington, Kentucky area, Keeneland's Friday card has been pushed to Monday. Saturday's racing, including the G1 Blue Grass Stakes, will take place on Tuesday.

The race offers 200 points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the first-through fifth-place finishers toward the Kentucky Derby.

That guarantees the winner a spot in the 'Run for the Roses,' makes it likely the second-place finisher gets into the field, and can even put others who run well in a prime position to land a berth in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The 101^st running of the Bluegrass, an iconic springtime feature for 3-year-olds worth $1.25 million, covers 1 1/8 miles over the dirt.

The 5-2 morning-line favorite in a field of seven intriguing Derby prospects is River Thames, who is two for three lifetime and runner-up in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in his most recent start. The colt is trained by four-time Toyota Blue Grass winner Todd Pletcher.

The Blue Grass is the 10th race on the card and has a scheduled post time of 5:52 p.m.

Let's look at the entire field from the rail out.

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - River Thames – Irad Ortiz/Todd Pletcher – 5-2 - It took an all-out, electrifying effort from Sovereignty to hand this guy a neck loss in the Fountain of Youth. In that effort, the Pletcher runner got a good stalking trip, took the lead turning for home, and drew clear in mid-stretch but was unable to hold off the eventual winner. That defeat halted the MacLean's Music colt's mini two-race winning streak following impressive scores in his maiden and allowance races. Looks as though he's still maturing and on the improve.

2 - Render Judgment – Sheldon Russell/Ken McPeek – 20-1 - His juvenile season consisted of three of four in-the-money finishes, finishing off the board only once when fifth in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, his initial attempt in graded company. He also tried stakes competition when rounding out his two-year-old campaign with a third-place effort in the Gun Runner Stakes. Disappointed in his sophomore debut in the G2 Risen Star, where he was a well-beaten eighth, but he came through with a much-improved performance in the Virginia Derby, rallying gamely to finish second.

3 - Burnham Square – Brian Hernandez/Ian Wilkes – 4-1 - After breaking his maiden and then winning the G3 Holy Bull, where Tappan Street was second, he ran a bit inconsistent but finished with good energy in his fourth-place finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth, where he was beaten less than three lengths by Sovereignty. The Liam's Map colt obviously has raced with good company as both opponents mentioned here ran one-two in last week's G1 Florida Derby.

4 - Owen Almighty – Jose Ortiz/Brian Lynch – 3-1 - Registered an impressive front-running score in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, causing trainer Lynch to alter plans and keep the horse on the Derby trail instead of the original target of the Pay Day Mile on the Derby undercard. Never worse than second in six lifetime starts. He crossed the finish line first in four of his races but was DQ'd in one of them. Question is, can he be successful here in stretching out his speed an additional sixteenth of a mile?

5 - East Avenue – Luan Machado/Brendan Walsh – 3-1 - He was a good-looking winner when destroying the competition by eight lengths in his debut last fall, then jumped up to take the G1 Breeders' Futurity in his next start. However, since then, he has disappointed as the favorite in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (9^th) and the Risen Star (10^th). The latter race being his only start as a three-year-old. Luan Machado, who replaces regular rider, Tyler Gafflione, who is injured, rode the horse to victory in its maiden win. Blinkers go on for this colt.

6 - Chancer McPatrick – Flavian Prat/Chad Brown – 7-2 - Two-time G1 winner captured major victories in the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes during his juvenile season. He finished second in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in his 3-year-old debut. Goes out for a trainer who is a three-time winner of the Blue Grass, most recently in 2024 with Sierra Leone, who finished second in last year's Kentucky Derby, then went on to win the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic before being voted top three-year-old colt of the year.

7 – Admiral Dennis – Luis Saez/Brad Cox – 20-1 - I'll give him a free pass for his last outing in the G2 Rebel Stakes, as he was off slow and suffered an extremely wide journey, but he still managed to beat half the field. He has worked out regularly and quickly in preparation for this contest but appears to be too slow on paper, as his best speed figure is well below some of the main contenders in this group.

Analysis:

East Avenue and River Thames enter as the top contenders, showing strong figures and recent form.

Chancer McPatrick is a reliable stalker with a strong finishing kick, while Render Judgment is a potential upsetter with improving speed figures.

This race looks like a battle between tactical speed and closing ability, with pace pressure likely influencing the outcome.

The pace scenario will be key in determining the race outcome.

River Thames is expected to press the pace but can rate if needed.

Chancer McPatrick will likely sit just off the leaders, ready to pounce.

A couple of lower-rated horses may gun for the lead early, setting up a moderate-to-fast pace.

East Avenue will sit mid-pack and look to launch a late run.

Overall, expect an honest pace that won't be too fast or too slow, favoring tactical speed horses while still giving late runners a fair shot.

Final Takeaway:

River Thames is in top form, has strong figures, and can adapt to different pace scenarios.

East Avenue brings class and a powerful closing kick but will need the right setup.

Chancer McPatrick is a grinder who always fires—a must-use in exotics.

Render Judgment is a live longshot who could surprise by hitting the board.

In a race without a runaway speed horse, River Thames' tactical versatility gives him the edge over the deep closers.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 - River Thames – Tactical speed, strong form, best last-race speed figure. 

2 - East Avenue – Late charge, needs a good pace setup.

3 - Chancer McPatrick – Always in the mix, reliable, but needs perfect trip.

This sets up for a potentially strong betting opportunity, with River Thames as the main play but East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick needing respect in exotics.

Wagering Strategy - $100 Mythical Bankroll

Win Bets ($35 Total)

$20 Win – 1 River Thames (5-2 odds)

$15 Win – 5 East Avenue (4-1 odds)

Why? These are still our strongest win contenders based on tactical speed and finishing power.

Exacta Bets ($30 Total)

$5 Exacta Box – 1, 5, 6 ($30 Total)

Why? We're keeping River Thames, East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick as our top three horses in any order.

Trifecta ($20 Total)

$1 Trifecta Key: 1, 5 / 1, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

Why? This covers our main contenders up top, with both Render Judgment (2) and Burham Square (3) having shown strong form and could easily complete the trifecta at decent odds.

Superfecta Ticket: ($15 Total)

$0.50 Superfecta: 1, 5 / 1, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 6/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Why? For the same reason above and we added Owen Almighty (4) to the fourth spot due to his potential to capitalize on race dynamics and finish in the top four, despite not being a favorite. This structure gives us a well-rounded ticket, covering both the favorites and possible longshots, increasing our chances of hitting a solid superfecta.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!