Wagering Tactics for the Oaklawn Handicap
By: Robert Marks, (X: @theyreinthegate)
All eyes may be on the 3-year-olds as we are 2 weeks away from the Kentucky Derby, but the 2025 Oaklawn Handicap, set for this Saturday, April 19, at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas, is a very competitive race for older horses (4 years old and up).
With a purse of $1.25 million, this Grade 2 event over 1 1/8 miles on dirt has attracted a field rich in talent, featuring a field of 9 horses. Carded as race 11 of 12, post time for the Oaklawn Handicap is 6:10 PM CT.
Here is who we like:
The returning winner from the 2024 Oaklawn Handicap is Skippylongstocking at 5-2 morning line odds, trained by Joseph Saffie Jr. with Irad Ortiz Jr. the Jockey. This 6-year-old comes off a last-out win in the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay. If weights are important to your handicapping, please note that Skippylongstocking will carry high weight at 123 pounds (compared to Go West Go at the low weight of 112 pounds.) Skippylongstockings’ win last year in this race garnered a high Beyer Speed figure. His run type is early pace, but can also race just off the pace and then track. Definitely a must-use horse and has the Foundation with over 3 million in lifetime earnings and 10 wins.
First Mission (2-1) trained by Brad Cox, is the morning line favorite. The Jockey is Flavien Prat, who will be on board for the 1st time as Florent Geroux ran him for the last five mounts. Only 11 lifetime starts for this 5-year-old, but 9 of them have been graded stakes. Has raced twice at Oaklawn with a win and a 3rd place finish last time out in the Grade 3 Razorback, where he went off as the favorite (Alexander Helios was the winner). Has not raced in 55 days and had a bullet workout last Sunday. Prat has been winning at Oaklawn at a 26% rate so this is a definite upgrade on the Jock aboard. Probably the best late speed in the field.
Alexander Helios (4-1)
trained by Joseph Saffie Jr., also comes off a 1st place finish at
Oaklawn in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap with a game finish over Banishing and
First Mission. Had an impressive speed rating in the Razorback. There is a
jockey switch from Tyler Gaffalione to Luiz Saez (aboard for the 1st
time) Distance will not be an issue with 2 placings out of 2 runs in the
distance and his late pace speed competes well with this field. Could we see a repeat of the Razorback where
Alexander Helios held off Banishing and First Mission? Both Alexander Helios and First Mission are
well rested at 55 days but Banishing ran the Oaklawn Mile, winning it on March
29th. Seems like Banishing to me cannot get the 1 1/8 distance so we
will throw him out of first 3 placings.
Since Saffie Jr took over as trainer 3 races ago, Alexander Helios seems
to be in great form.
Analysis
This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace.
We think front runners Tarantino and Banishing lead the pace with First Mission, Skippy Longstocking and Alexander Helios running a tracking pace coming into the last turn.
From there it’s a stretch duel between First Mission, Skippy Longstocking and Alexander Helios.
We hope to hit a Trifecta Boxing our 3 highlighted horses with Banishing thrown in. We also think a win bet on Alexander Helios at 3-1 or higher odds is good value.
As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.
Handigambing
$100 dollar Budget
$50-win Alexander Helios
$2Trifecta Box: Alexander Helios, First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Banishing (total bet $48)
$2 Longshot pick: Disarm (10-1)
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