Finding Value in the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Should be a lot of fun, and there might be some real value in the betting with multiple entries from Saffie Joseph, Jr. and Todd Pletcher.
Featured as race 10 of 11, post time is 4:52 PM ET. Let's review the field.
#2 Grand Sonata - Pletcher/Gaffalione - Has raced at the highest levels and had some success, winning over $2M lifetime. He's won two of three at Gulfstream but only one at the distance. The public hasn't put a lot of money into him at the betting windows, but still he fits in this field. Gaffalione is quite adept at putting his mounts in the right place to be ITM. The connections are right, the odds are right and I expect he'll be in the top three.
#3 Saratoga Flash - Joseph/Husbands - He's struggled against graded/stakes company, but he has done well at Gulfstream with two wins and three seconds out of seven races; however, never won at the distance. They might be the rabbit for this race. Bottom of trifectas or superfectas.
#4 Major Dude – Pletcher/Ortiz, I Jr. – The connections are telling. This stalker midpack closer struggled in the Four Star Dave when stuck in traffic but has won two of his last three and does well at Gulfstream. He's been off since early October and had some nice works coming into this race with two bullets under his belt. Ortiz is on fire and I expect that to remain the same for the meet. This is my top pick, and at 5-1 he is a bargain.
#5 Win for the Money - Casse/Davis - This guy won the Woodbine Mile handily and might have pushed the pace too hard in the BC Mile, finishing last of ten. He shows good form in his races prior to the last, so we'll scratch his last effort. Dylan Davis gets the mount and is coming off a great season up North. The bullet work on December 4th on the turf is impressive, and he likes Gulfstream. I expect Casse has him ready. My only concern is he's a miler and doesn't go the distance. Bottom of exotics.
#6 Lorenz – Joseph/Van Dyke – When we look through the PPs he stands out as not having enough class. His last two wins with Van Dyke up were for $75K. Both were come from behind late closing wins. That being said, he really likes to be ITM in his last seven races. A conundrum? Or is he a horse moving up with talent? The form is there, Van Dyke is a patient jockey and I'd like to see Lorenz get a piece. Longshot to play in the mix.
#7 Siege of Boston - Toner/Ruiz – The public loves to throw money at this guy without a lot of winnings. He's had some nice works coming into the race, and Toner is a fine grass trainer but his record says he won't finish well. Rosario put him on the lead last time out in the Knickerbocker, but he got tired in the lane and finished fifth. Ruiz is familiar with Boston, but does the horse have the turn of foot to get there? He's a toss for me.
#8 Fort Washington –McGaughey/Velasquez - Always liked this horse at the lower levels. The connections are super, steady works at Payson Park. Was fourth by two in the Knickerbocker. Third in the Arty Schiller and had a big win in the Monmouth Stakes at 35-1. As has been seen many times before, Johnny V can show up and punish others. I see him as a worthy longshot ITM.
#9 Emmanuel – Maker/Castellano - Since he's moved to Maker's barn he has lost some form against graded company. In his favor, he has won two for two at Gulfstream under Pletcher, and he has seen several these other horses in his travels. I just don't have confidence in him, given his recent form. Toss.
Handigambling…you folks pick the money you want to wager
Trifecta – 4 with 2, 6, 8 with All
Exacta Box – 2, 4, 6, 8 Or All with 6 & 8 and a WS bet on 6 & 8
WPS on 6
Dutch WPS on 8 against the 6
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