Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Fayette Stakes (G2)

 The Show Goes On in Fayette Stakes

By: John Caro, S. Florida Thorofan

As we start to exit the Keeneland meet and move toward the 2024 Breeders Cup, the Fayette Stakes (G2) is an annual race for three and ups that are not on the Breeders Cup trail. Most of these runners are experienced graded stakes winners at some point in their careers. Others have validated themselves with black type races.

Let’s review the field.

1. Trademark – Oliver/Concepcion  - Although he has won major stakes at this level and can go a distance his recent form is not encouraging. He is second off a layoff and may improve, but others are more likely. Bottom of a Superfecta if played.

2. Tumbarumba – Lynch/Saez  - This guy is consistently in the money. And maybe too polite this year, with one win and four second-place finishes. Four of his last five were in graded company. Saez has been aboard for four of his last five and is up today. Distance doesn't seem to matter to him and he goes 100+ at the distance. I like him; he may surprise, and I expect he will be ITM for this run. In exotics.

3. Uno Mas Bourbon  - Wilkes/Arrieta – A three-year-old coming off a nice win in the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs and was visually impressive on video going the distance. Although he moves up in class, Arrieta stays aboard, and the horse is a closer, which in a field of late-pace movers may play well for a shot at a piece. At 15-1 he fits nicely in the lower side of exotics.

4. War Campaign  - Sims/Gaffalione  - He comes back off an extended break to finish second by one with Gaffalione up. Gaffalione is on fire at Keeneland, and it fits for a stretch out with this field. I like his in the money chances.

5. Bolzy – Von Hemel/Dettori  - Badly beaten by 8. Hit Show in the sloppy Lukas Classic after coming back from a six-month break. He has had two wins in nine starts lifetime. Not on my list of contenders.

6. Rattle N Roll – McPeek/Hernandez B. - Saw this guy in his barn at age three. He was massive and had an impact in graded stakes with earnings of $1.7M. His form declined after July 2023, and he was rested. Rattle N Roll finished third to Hit Show after a year long break and showed good speed. Mcpeek's go-to jockey, Brian Hernandez, has been on RNR for most of Rattle N Roll’s money winning. This is a war horse and I expect he'll show better for this race. Contender.

7. Heroic Move – Diodoro/Torres  - Another who has lost to Hit Show, placing second by a half length in the West Virginia Governor's Stakes two months back. Heroic Move has been bounced around from Diodoro's barn several times but is back to where he belongs, I think. Not sure what to make of him and not sure this is the right distance for him with one in the money performance in three tries. Pass.

8. Hit Show – Cox/Geroux  - Our favorite in the field. Geroux has been up for the last four and won three of them, two at this distance. He's fast, particularly in the middle of the races. Hit Show likes to be mid-pack and move early to finish with a blast of speed and a steady run to the finish line. That might be his undoing if the pace doesn't match his move. Still, Hit Show is a worthy favorite and must be used on top.

9. Grand Aspen  - Thomas/Ortiz J. – This guy was very consistent under Todd Pletcher until he ran the Pegasus World Cup (G1 )in January and was eased. Then he  moved to Thomas' barn. After a training break in March, Grand Aspen returned in August on a steady training regime. Jonathan Thomas has a reputation for bringing horses back consistently, and he usually trains them for distance races. I trust Grand Aspen will return to form. He has shown good speed and may be the pacesetter for this race. Exotics play.

10. Howling Time – Troiani/Morales  - 1. Trademark finished 1 ¼ lengths ahead of this fella last time out. I think Howling Time is up against it because of the distance and the outside post. Morales can be a pretty aggressive rider when called upon but again, Howling Time’s history doesn’t fit. Pass.

Handigambling Menu  - I think Brisnet has it right on the top of the front page. 2,4,6,7,8 are the players here. 9 and 3 are worthy longshots as well. I'm going to cut the #7 as noted above.

$1 Trifecta  - 8,6 with 2,3,4,6,8,9 with 2,3,4,6,8,9     $40

$1 Exacta Box – 2,3,4,9     $12

$3 Exacta – 6,8 with 2,3,4,9    $24

Longshots – this is a cheap way to play long with 3 and 9 

$10 to win on both ($20) and a $2 Exacta All the above listed with 3 and 9 ($20)

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 A Squeeze Play takes home the Money

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Racing in October has a unique flavor. As the month progresses, we rarely hear of a horse prepping for a Breeders’ Cup race.

The Raven Run Stakes (G2) typifies that story. Refreshing because we can know with some certainty that almost every horse in the race is serious about this race and not a Breeders’ Cup race to follow.

2024 marks the first year that the Raven Run is a grade two event, and this year’s field looks like a good one to watch and find an angle for your handicapping. The race is a seven-furlong event for 3-year-old fillies.

Weather predictions are beautiful for racing: temperatures in the high 60s, sunny, and 0% chance of rain. The perfect fan day at the track.

Here is the field for the race.

1. Fibber (Frosted) Last time, she tried a Grade 3, finishing second to My Mane Squeeze, but her speed figure has regressed since. Positive jockey change. Breezed a bullet on October 9th, suggesting she might be ready for a new figure. The competition in this race is a little above her level. Pass.

2. Miuccia (Mitole) Irad Ortiz stayed with her after a third-place finish in the Prioress Stakes (G3). She recorded her best Beyer in that race and could improve. Not this weekend.

3. My Mane Squeeze (Audible) Placed in graded races, winning her last, a Grade 3 from Churchill at this distance. Paired last three races. She will be just off what may be a slow pace ready to move in the stretch. Luis Saez keeps the mount. Main threat to Morning Line favorite.

4. Twirling Queen (Twirling Candy) Worked a bullet for this race off a July win at Saratoga. She won her last four races, three with Luis Saez, but Saez goes to My Mane Squeeze in this race. Why? Twirling Queen is stepping up into graded company for the first time, and tt could be a problem. Distance could be her problem. Could surprise at a price.

5. Emery (More Than Ready) The favorite with a bullseye on the back. She placed in a Grade 1 last time over a muddy track at Saratoga beating My Mane Squeeze, and has tactical speed. The one to beat, unless the “Squeeze” seeks revenge.

6. VV’s Dream (Mitole)Keeps her regular jockey. The two finished second in the 2023 Arcibiades (G1). She has regressed a little since then, but may be returning to form. Need to wait and see.

7. Mink’s Palace (Palace Malice) Jose Ortiz replaces Luis Saez after the last win. Why? She’s stepping up in company. As the main closer in the race, Mink’s Palace will be running in the lane. She might get a lower piece of the exotics.

8. Uno Le (Klimt) just won her maiden a few weeks ago. She had a Solid run but was not fast enough against others in this race. We will see if she is ready for the big time, not this weekend.

9. Riperton (Constitution) Will likely try to set the pace. Her only hope is to catch the others sleeping and steal the race. Not likely.

10. Haulin Ice (Coal Front) Was embarrassed in her first attempt in graded company. No reason to think she will improve enough to be competitive here. Pass.

Analysis

Basic handicapping logic suggests it may be a two-horse race. Emery and My Mane Squeeze stand out.

Saez gives up three horses in the race to ride My Mane Squeeze. The money will be in the exotic plays if these two try to make it a match race and another horse splits them.

Twirling Queen has a lot of upside and is worth consideration at price. Jose Oritz will be driving in the lane, trying for a piece.

Here is how I think they may finish.

3.  My Mane Squeeze (4-1)

4.  Twirling Queen (10-1)

5.  Emery (7-5)

7.  Mink’ Palace (12-1)

Handigamble

$4 Trifecta Box #3,4, #5, #7 =  $96

$4 Win #4 (Twirling Queen) =   $4

 Good Luck but keep the day job!

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

 European Fillies Ready to Reign at the Q.E. II Challenge Cup Stakes

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

The turf racing season for sophomore fillies reaches its zenith on Saturday, October 12, in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland.

The 1 1/8-mile grass race offers a $750,000 purse, boosted from its $600,000 level from the last two years. The race drew a field of ten to contest for such spoils, with a group as classy as any in the division all year long. All ten are stakes winners, and all but two are already graded stakes winners.

The list of winners reads like a who’s who of top turf fillies and mares. Mawj, the 2023 winner, returned to miss by just a nose to older male stablemate Master of the Seas in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) next out. 2022 winner Gina Romantica has won the First Lady (G1) each of the last two years. Other winners include champions Rushing Fall (2018) and Dayatthespa (2012).

Let's review the top picks.

Mawj snapped over a decade of futility on the win end for international shippers in this race, and the chances look strong for overseas raiders this time, too. The one likely to be more heavily bet will be 5. Soprano, who comes out of a Group 1 placing in the Matron at Leopardstown behind the superstar Porta Fortuna. Her class is unassailable, but Soprano has yet to try anything longer than a mile. The picture for that is mixed: she is by Starspangledbanner out of a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Obviously, so close-up in her pedigree reads sprint-oriented, though there is a bit more stamina with the likes of Hawkster further back down her dam line.

From a betting perspective, 10. Candala is the more interesting of the overseas runners. She has not yet faced older, but that isn’t a major concern given that this is a three-year-old fillies’ race. She has come up just short in her last two, though those were Group 2 events going longer than this, 1 ½ and 1 ¼ miles, respectively. Though both of her wins have come at only a mile as well, her pedigree has plenty of upside for finding her place at 1 1/8 miles: she is by Frankel out of Candarliya, a mare who won going as long as 1 ¾ miles, a distance at which she beat males at the Group 2 level. The condition of the turf is a question, as she has only ever run on soft French ground and now she tries firmer American going for the first time. But, she has class, upside, and jockey Florent Geroux, who knows how to win a big race at Keeneland.

Trainer Chad Brown sends a pair out for the Queen Elizabeth II. 6. Oversubscribed, under Irad Ortiz, Jr., is the shorter price on the mroning line. However, 9. Grayosh is a little more interesting. He gets jockey Flavien Prat, who has won this race twice already with Brown, with Shantisara in 2021 and Gina Romantica in 2022. Prat guided Grayosh to a victory in the Lake Placid (G2) at 1 1/16 miles out, outgaming morning-line favorite She Feels Pretty to win by a neck. She showed in that race that, even if the pace is not terribly fast, she can sit close enough to the pace to stay in striking distance. With an honest but not blazing pace likely, that tractability will be a plus. Though she didn’t finish the job the one other time she tried 1 1/8 miles, that was back in May and her pedigree suggests that the extra time to mature means she very much could be ready for the challenge this time around.

3. She Feels Pretty has never run a bad race in six starts, though she has two wins and four narrow misses. That includes head defeats in both the Belmont Oaks (G1) and the Lake Placid (G2) in her last two starts. Perhaps the blinkers will help her focus enough to get the job done, though the fact that both of her wins have come at a flat mile raises the question of whether She Feels Pretty would prefer that distance, and not a longer trip like this, right between the lengths of the Belmont Oaks and the Lake Placid. In short, she makes a lot of sense to run on for her customary share, but the morning-line favorite will be an underlay on the win end.

Selections

10. Candala (9-2)

9. Grayosh (8-1)

5. Soprano (7-2)

Longshot: Sometimes horses just love Keeneland, and 7. Buchu (15-1) will be the right price to bet that she is one of those kinds of horses.

She has popped up for shares of the gimmicks elsewhere: a second in the Regret (G3) over this distance at Churchill, a fourth at this distance at Del Mar in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) last out. But her last two wins have both come in graded stakes over the lawn in Lexington: The Jessamine (G2) last year and the Appalachian (G2) this spring.

Buchu will be hoping for as much pace in front of her as possible, as she does her best running late. But, with Pin Up Betty basically forced to go from the rail and the likes of Waves of Mischief and Pounce with a chance to go for it and keep her honest, Buchu could add one more smart Keeneland effort to her resume.