Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Rebel Stakes (G2)

 Longshot plays in the Rebel Stakes

 By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome to Oaklawn. Thirteen contenders are entered in the $1.25 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, a 2024 Kentucky Derby qualifier with a great weather forecast and a fast track. 

The Rebel is carded as race 11 of 12, with a 5:23 CT post time.

 

 

A lot to digest in this race. There are some obvious standouts in here.

#7 Timberlake – Cox/Torres  -  Class of the field, won the Champaign Stakes but came up short in the BC Juvenile and lost some ground in the final 16^th. Hasn't raced since. Fastest speed in the field and will likely press the pace. Five works since '24 started with a bullet on the 10^th. Cox is consistent at getting his stable ready. Torres has been a winning jockey at Oaklawn. Win contender.

#11 Just Steel – Lukas/Vazquez  - Second in the Smarty Jones here and followed that with a second (by 8) in the muddy Southwest Stakes, losing to McPeek's Mystic Dan*. In two attempts over a wet track, he has not done well. A fast track should help here. ITM play.

#1 Carbone – Asmussen/Castillo  - He may have been a victim of the wet track last time in the Southwest. On a fast track he has shown much better. He shows excellent speed, has the rail, and has a driving finish style. I like his chances to upset the top two. A special play with this guy.

#2 Northern Flame – McPeek/Leparoux – the two wins of seven races have come when he is on the front and stays. He nearly lost his last out to #10 Mena going shorter, which may indicate some regression. He will likely be part of the pace, but I don't trust him to finish ITM.

#13 Time for Truth -  Moquett/Bejarano  - Broke his maiden sprinting first time out against 11 others on the last day of '23. Came back in a black type sprint and placed second. The speed for bothering races were excellent, and if he can overcome the outside post he might enrich the loot in an exacta/trifecta.

Longshot Plays 

As noted above with Carbone, Show me some sustainable speed and a closing kick, and I'll look favorable on ya.

#6 Dimatic – Asmussen/Gaffalione  - The connections alone make me enthusiastic. Dimatic broke his maiden last out on the same day as the Southwest and had a 3-length lead when he saw something that made him lug out but recovered quickly and drove home against 11 others. Rosario was abroad that day, but he'll be at the Saudi Cup swapping saddles with Gaffalione. Tyler is wicked good at Oaklawn, and this mid pack closing Gun Runner colt is ideal for this race. Longshot play.

#12 Woodcourt – Contreras/Esquivel  - New to the Contreras barn and made a splash closing against 10 others here in late January to win by a neck. His other wins have come from a midpack closing style. The trainer is a 29% win or at Oaklawn and the jockey is over 60% ITM. Like him in any exotics.

#3 Common Defense  - McPeek/Hernandez B. – Great breeding in this colt and another who failed in the Southwest. Didn't get away well, didn't get up into the field, just didn't do what was expected. But here is the thing; McPeek puts his top jock aboard who won the Southwest by 8 lengths and although the speed figures given in the pps don't stand out the time for a mile at this track on fast ground say he could be a play in the exactas.

Handigambling

The odds for the favorite are just prohibitive to bet. I'm not going to spend a lot on this one and hope some reasonable prices show up on top with a good longshot under. Only betting Exactas and small win bets here

$2 Exacta   - 1,6,7,11, with 1,3,6,12,13 - $36

Alternate $2 Exacta – 1,6,7,11,12,13 with 3,12,13 - $32

Dutch Win bets - $13 on 13, $10 on 12, $7 on 3 – all bets will payout $200 at the ML odds. - $30

Watch Mystic Dan in the Arkansas Derby….could be serious player in the Derby

BONUS BET

Saudi Cup – Longshot Box or Play them as winners.

$1 Exacta Box – #1 Carmel Road – Won the Faisal Cup here last out, Super Jockey up

#6 Isolate – Fast pacesetter  

#7 Lemon Pop – OTM once in 14 tries, can go long

#10 Power in Numbers – ITM 2 for 2 here and won four in a row

#12 Senor Buscador – Like to be ITM, 2^nd in the Pegasus WC.

                            

 

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

 Winning Records on the line in Rachel Alexandra Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $300,000 Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, named, of course, for the Champion and fan favorite, is a major stepping stone to the 2024 Kentucky Oaks. The 1 1/16 mile contest offers a scale of 50-20-15-10-5 points to the first five finishers, in this case, to all but two unfortunate lasses.

Oddly enough, Rachel Alexandra never competed in the prep, which has undergone a few name changes over the years. However, that doesn't diminish the significance of the race, and the winner's roll call reads like a who's who of accomplished fillies.

Pretty Mischievous, Untapable, Monomoy Girl, Serengeti Empress, Summerly, and Silverbulletday are some names enshrined as Rachel Alexandra/ Kentucky Oaks winners. Other notable winners include Grade 1 heroines Clairiere, I'm a Chatterbox, Shadow Cast, and Take Charge Lady, to name but a few.

Scheduled as race 13, the Rachel Alexandra post time is 5:48 PM CT, and the track may be muddy or sloppy.

This year's edition contains a competitive field of seven, and Brad Cox conditions half the field. There isn't an overwhelming standout, so let's examine the field.

 

Intricate (3-1) rolled to a 5 ¼ length victory in the Golden Rod (G2). She hinted at brilliance in her second start, graduating by 3 ½ lengths. Gun Runner's daughter has classic conformation and breeding. Her winning dam, by Distorted Humor, is a full sister to stakes winner Abraham and a half to Grade 1-placed turf miler Beat the Benchmark. Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione teamed to win last year's Rachel Alexandra with Pretty Mischievous. Contender.

The late-blooming Alpine Princess (7-2) won her two final starts last year, an allowance and the Untapable Stakes, by a combined two lengths. She handily beat West Omaha, who returned a runaway winner in the Silverbulletday. Alpine Princess has classic breeding She's by Champion 2-year-old Classic Empire out of the Curlin mare Le Moine. The mare is a half to stakes winning turf horse, and Another Miracle and Alpine Princess's second dam is a multiple stakes winner. Alpine Princess can set the pace or rate and will be dangerous. Contender.

Tarifa (5-1) is ready for prime time after besting a field of optional claimers in her 3-year-old debut. Reserved on the outside behind the pacesetter, the Brad Cox trainee chased the stubborn pacesetter and gradually inched clear. Bernardini's daughter is out of an unraced Awesome Again mare. Tarifa's second dam is a full sister to Tiznow. Although Tarifa earned an average 86 speed rating, her late-pace figure of 98 is the highest in this field. Cox and Pratt win at 26%, and rail posts have a 30% success rate. Exotics.

After graduating in her second start by four lengths, West Omaha (9-2) returned to place second behind Alpine Princess, earning a 92 career-best Brisnet rating. The Brad Cox trainee rebounded in the Silverbulletday, winning by five lengths over last-out maiden winner Perfect Shot and the previously undefeated stakes winner, Miss Code West.

West Omaha is by third-crop sire West Coast and out of the unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare Birthday Bash. Distant relatives include Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile hero Tapizar and Champion filly Untapable.

West Omaha's form shows a loose/win pattern, but with her tactical speed, she could break that pattern here. Exotics.

The late-blooming Perfect Shot (10-1) won her third attempt when she stretched to two turns. Returning off the layoff against winners in the Silverbulletday, the Steve Asmussen trainee made up ground but was no match for West Omaha.

By Gun Runner, out of a daughter of Bodemeister, Perfect Shot is bred to love classic distances. Her dam's half-sister bore Arkansas Derby hero Nadal, and another half-sister is a stakes-winning turf router.

Her speed figures aren't the best, but her pedigree and tactical running style suggest Perfect Shot could have a say in the outcome of the Rachel Alexandra. Live Longshot.

Although V V's Dream (5-2) is the morning line favorite, she may have distance concerns. By 2019 Champion Sprinter and #2 second-crop sire Mitole, the pretty gray filly is out of the winning sprinter/miler Quay, a daughter of Tapit. Quay's stakes-placed half-sister bore multiple Grade 2-winning miler Kathleen O. None of V V's Dream's half-siblings have won beyond a mile, and this filly lost ground in both starts around two turns. I'll take a stance and pass.

Pennick (8-1) successfully transferred her Polytrack form to mud and faced winners for the first time in an allowance event here over a sloppy track. She had to steady in traffic and patiently wait for an opening, but once clear, she opened up by four lengths, galloping home under a hand ride. Now, the Gary Scherer jumps from 5 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.

Hard Spun's daughter is out of a winning Vindication mare and is half to a multiple graded-placed sprinter. Pennick won both starts by a combined 9 ¾ lengths. She has successfully shipped, tried a new surface, and has a series of 5-furlong works under her girth. However, Scherer has a 12% win rate with horses stretching out. Pass.

Analysis

Over the last 12 years, all but three fillies finished in the top four in their Rachel Alexandra prep, and only one of those preps wasn't a stakes race. The Golden Rod and Silverbulletday Stakes were key preps, accounting for six wins. Five heroines made their seasonal debut in the Rachel Alexandra.

Four favorites won and hit the board three times. The last favorite to enter the winner's circle was Serengeti Empress in 2019. No particular running style dominated, although pace pressers and closers won the previous four years.

Most of this year's field are closely matched and have tactical speed, so it could become a jockey's race. All of these guys are at the top of their game, further compounding the issue.

The Golden Rod heroine Intricate fits the historic winner's profile. Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione teamed to win last year's edition with Pretty Mischievous.

Untappable winner Alpine Princess and Silverbulletday heroine West Omaha may have a say.

Picks

3. Intricate (3-1)

5. Alpine Princess (7-2)

7. West Omaha (9-2)

3. Perfect Shot (10-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3)

 Sam F. Davis Stakes a Taxing Event

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Buckle your seat belts as Tampa Bay Downs enters the run for the roses. The most difficult handicapping challenge this early in Derby Preps is knowing for sure if the horses are ready, especially those that last ran in 2023.

In last week’s Holy Bull Stakes from Gulfstream Park, we saw perfect example when the heavy favorite ran third.

The field for the Sam F. Davis, although large, only has three 2024 first time starters. The weather at the track on Saturday is beautiful with cloud cover and in the 70s. Nice day to go racing. 

 

Let’s look at the field:

1.    El Principito (Accelerate) has been struggling since he broke his maiden last September. His last doesn’t instill confidence for improvement. Not today.

2.     Tireless (No This Time) gets a new jockey after a nice MSW win over this course in January. Consistent runner at that level. Stepping up into graded company. Maybe too much.

3.     Patriot Spirit (Constitution) has solid works and speed figures coming into the race. Tried to wire field for the Iroquois Stakes after an impress win in MSW. This will be his first attempt in 2024 after a 70-day layoff. Maybe next time.

4.     Crazy Mason (Coal Front) performed well in last two races and shows solid form. Won at Saratoga last year and has a 1^st and 2^nd in last two starts at Tampa Bay Downs. Keeps jockey. Will be coming at the end. Maybe not in time.

5.     No More Time (Not This Time) working a bullet at Palm Meadows. Had trouble with 1^st start in 2024. Flatten out last, but gets seasoned, new jockey. Should help. Will likely be up front trying to match his 6-length win when going a mile at Gulfstream Park. In the money.

6.     Agate Road (Quality Road) turf runner converting to dirt. The likely best chance for one of two Pletcher  trained horses to be in the money. Won a grade 2T race last year. Works ok. Jose replaces Irad who rode him in his last four races. Irad Ortiz is not in the race. Needs a solid pace to close into for a win. May get it if he takes to the dirt.

7.     Copper Tax (Copper Bullet) working nicely. Has four wins after breaking his maiden. Last attempt in grade 2 Remsen running well in the mud until bumped finishing 6^th by 14 lengths. Could be in the mix down the stretch. Chance for an upset win.

8.     Everdoit (Gary D) working bullets after giving way in last. Gets back jockey who rode him in to two races. May not be fast enough for these today. Watch.

9.     Change Command (Into Mischief) won an open claimer at Gulfstream last out. Working a bullet. Won last two. Trying graded stakes race for the first time. Gaffalione replaces Jose Ortiz in the irons. Possible winner.

10. West Saratoga (Exaggerator) won a grade 3 race 3 back. Tried the Breeders’ Cup Futurity at Keeneland but faded. Has a race over the track. Off for three months before making his 2024 debut. If he can return to his 2024 form, he will be in the mix at the wire.

11. Fulmineo (Bolt d’Oro) Three months off since Breeders’ Cup race and finished a second in stakes race here at Tampa Bay Downs. If pace is honest, he will be coming hard at the end. Speed figures say he can compete. A live Long Shot.

12. Elysian Meadows (City of Lights) first trying in 2024 after a 57-day layoff. Comes into the race undefeated for trainer Bill Mott. It is an unusual training pattern for Mott, but you should never second guess Mott. Cautious.

    SUMMARY

The pace should be honest allowing for off-the-pace runners some success. The race will be won at the wire with a closer nipping a front runner. In the mix will be a strategically placed horse handled by a talented rider. Here is how they might finish:

#7  Copper Tax (5-1)

#5  No More  Time (10-1)

#9  Change of Command (3-1)

#11 Fulmineo  (15-1)

HANDIGAMBLE

$25 win---#7  Copper Tax…………          $25

$50 Place #7  Copper Tax…………          $50

$1 Tri Box: #5, #7, #9,  #11……….      $24