Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Stephen Foster Handicap (G1)

 Who will Roll in the Stephen Foster Handicap?

By: The Turk

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  For those of you who have never read my blog, I'm The Turk and I've been handicapping and sharing my thoughts with this blog since 2008 and I've been playing the horses since 1986.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for putting up with my ramblings hosting my thoughts today.  

I must admit something:  In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park.  I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it.  A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit.  I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land. 

Notice the highly unusual 90 degree chute for their mile course, just like Saratoga.  The race will start and stop right in front of the grandstand.  

The weather is a wild card.  It's very hot today but tomorrow there is a chance for severe weather even hail.  Make sure you check out the Ellis Park website and stay close to what's happening, but I'm handicapping assuming fast dirt for now.  

This time of the year with older dirt horses you can get a pretty good view of current form, as all eight of the horses have 3-5 starts by now.  These horses also travel in the same circles mostly and compete in the same high profile races.  I like recency video handicapping.  I focus on the trip, the pace, and then I like to look at the horse's stretch runs when ahead, pressing or faltering. I'm no horse flesh expert, and while I like to watch the horses in the paddock, they all look on the muscle to me, so I don't glean much from that, but I think its really important to bring context to the past performance, as good as they are at condensing a lot of information in a uniform fashion.  Most people don't have the time for that.  I'm a boutique handicapper, 3-4 races per weekend, sometimes less. I focus on the quality of my review and not the quantity.  I use to do the speed handicapping thing, not good.  

Anyways, Let's get after it! 

Stephen Foster Handicap G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles

 

Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles.  The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners.  I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses.  You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six.  I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so.  This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks.  

Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously.  The Uncle Mo son Speed Bias is eye catching and a great price most likely.  No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.

I've got a coin toss between Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy as the best horses in the gate.  Rattle N Roll has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed.  Three wins straight.  8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023.  Smile Happy can run well early, can run well late.  Blazing in the Alysheba in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good.  

I threw a blanket over my next group.  The beforementioned Speed Bias should have the best price.  Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while.  Training very sharply.  

Western Will Power is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated.  Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023.  Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out.  5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place.  

Proxy has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip.  excellent late speed on display last time out at Oaklawn Handicap.  Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April.  7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance.  

I never know what to do with Stilleto Boy.  No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance.  3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10.  9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts.  I expect him to falter (famous last words).

I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing Last Samurai and Happy American. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field. 

 Oaklawn Handicap G2:  22 April 2023;  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

Santa Anita Handicap G1: 4 March 2023; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.

Pimlico Special G3: 19 May 2023; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt

Blame Stakes G3:  CD 3 June 2023; 1 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

Alysheba G2: CD 5 May 2023; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt

Ben Ali G3: KEE 22 April 2023; 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt

So what to do with all this?  I like to play exactas, so no reason to deviate. The best case scenario for me I don't see happening: a longer price winning over a mid pack price.  I also don't want to play it too safe.  Lets single Speed Bias to Win with Rattle N Roll to Place.  A $2 bet.  Sorry to disappoint with something better than that.  I may change my thinking based on track conditions and scratches, as I'd love to find a way to slip Last Samurai in.  

I have a correction to make to:  I bet Ellis Park once, Kentucky Downs Preview Day.  Now that Arlington Park is gone, Kentucky Downs is my favorite North American track, and that was the allure back in 2018.  The funny thing is I said in 2018 that I don't think I ever handicapped Ellis Park either!  

Have Fun Friends.

Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Ohio Derby (G3)

 Henry answers the "Q"ustion in the Ohio Derby

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Sandwiched between two prominent 3-year-old races, the Ohio Derby tries to elevate its winner to national recognition like Caleb’s Posse did by stepping up to win the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. It may have a chance this year.

The field owns four that performed well against the top 3-year-olds. Two Phils, the Ohio Derby morning line favorite, finished second in the Kentucky Derby. Bishops Bay finished 2^nd behind Arcangelo in the Peter Pan Stakes. Henry Q finished third in the Peter Pan Stakes. Lord Miles won the Wood Memorial Stakes (GII) in a Roller Derby-like finish at 50.25-1 over Hit Show.

Which of these will improve enough to have their picture taken is the handicapping challenge. Although a 23% chance of rain is predicted, the track should be good for the race at 6:20 Eastern time. Here is the field:

 1.   Henry Q (Blame) came out of a tough race against the Belmont Stakes (GII) winner Arcangelo. He picks up the seasoned jockey Kendrick Carmouche after a nice try with Dettori up in the Peter Pan Stakes (GIII). Looks like he wants the lead from the rail. With the right pace, he could be there at the wire. (Contender).

2.   Timesatappin (Tapiture) tries graded stakes racing for the first time with only one win in a maiden event. Doesn’t seem to be moving in the right direction for this crowd. Next time. (Pass).

3.   Bishop Bay (Uncle Mo) is a $450K Keeneland Sales grad with three impressive starts, keeps Geroux, tries G3 racing again. Just missed by a head, losing a bob in the Belmont Stakes (GI). May have graded stakes “seconditis.” Hasn’t performed the way the odds predicted. (Why?).

4.   Two Phils (Hard Spun) after winning the Jack Ruby Stakes finished second in the Derby behind Mage. Coming out of six graded stakes races with only two wins brings up questions about the horse or jockey. Bullet works seem to be the trainer’s solution. (questionable).

5.   Agnello’s Dream (Always Dreaming) another with Ohio racing experience. He has six starts in 2023 and no wins. Might be after a small piece of the purse. (Tough ask).

6.   Last Cookie (Fast Cookie) has no wins in 2023 or graded experience. Has a high winning trainer percentage, not much more (maybe an exotic play).

7.   Lord Miles (Lord Esme) homebred trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr.. Lord Miles shocked racing with a gutsy head win over Hit Show in the Wood Memorial (GII). Looks to show his odds were wrong in the last. Most rested of them all. (Contender).

8.   Hayes Strike (Connect) solid grade two and three experience as a 2-year-old and a troubled try in the Blue Grass Stakes (GI) this year. Pick up a new jockey for trainer Ken McPeek. Solid closer if the pace is rapid; otherwise, deep exotic play.

 

Analysis

Although Two Phills looks like he wants to set the pace, Henry Q with Carmouche up from the rail will likely challenge that and get it. Pace will determine the race –Carmouche against Loveberry.

Four, including Two Phils, will track anticipating Henry Q’s tiring. Three will be farther back. Henry Q will want to show he is in the class as the Belmont Stakes (GI) winner and will give all. Here is how they should finish:

1. Henry Q (5-1)

7. Lord Miles (7-2)

4.  Two Phils (8-5)

6. Last Cookie (30-1)

Handigamble ($100)

$20 to Win and Place on Henry Q =$40

$10 Exacta Box Henry Q with Lord Miles and with Two Phils =$60

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Salvator Mile (G3)

 Older stakes winners vie in Salvator Mile

By: John Caro, S. Florida ThoroFan Handicapper

Monmouth Park’s $150,000 Grade 3 Salvator Mile attracted a well-matched field of ten older horses with combined earnings of over $4 million, including six stakes winners.

Thunderstorms may be the name of the game Saturday during this contest.

Let’s take a look at the field.

One of the things that struck me as odd was that only one runner has a race over the Monmouth track, #2 - Ridin With Biden. He also has some of the best off-track numbers and gets Paco Lopez in the saddle.

#6 – Octane has a similar record on wet tracks and comes off a win at Gulfstream.

#8 – Nimitz Class is the talk of the town, with five straight victories under Jevian Toledo generally going longer, and won two back in the mud at Laurel. Hard to deny him as a top pick.

Other standouts are:

#1 – Petulante, with a great record for being in the exacta in every race, a son of Arrogate who we know can give a good performance over off tracks and with an inside post and Luis Saez up might surprise.

#3 – Empty Tomb gets Sammy Camacho, perpetual winner at Monmouth (26%), and trainer Robert Falcone, Jr. who's 40%. The horse is a four-time winner at the distance with good off-track records.

#5 – Bourbon Calling is a distance specialist with good off-track numbers and local jockey, Jorge Vargas, Jr.

The others don't stick out, although #9 – Artorius has been on an extended break with excellent credentials from his win in the Curlin Stakes last summer. Chad Brown restarted his training in March at Payson Park, and he's worked well. Another son of Arrogate, so there is little doubt that he will handle an off-track.

Tracks that are sealed can play to the strengths of speed horses. Based strictly on what I see on the PPs, the winner should be Nimitz Class. He might face stiff competition from Petulante, Empty Tomb, and Bourbon Calling near the front, and the others noted will be mid-pack and make a move in the stretch.

Handigambling:

$2 Trifecta – 8 with 1,3,5 with 1,2,3,5,6,9   = $30

Longshot play - $5 win on 1,3 and a $2 exacta box 1,2,3

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Belmont Stakes (G1)

 Celebrating the Test of Champions

The ThoroFan Handicappers resolutely face the Test of Champions while making their selections for the 2023 Belmont Stakes.

Congratulations to Rowan Ward for selecting Mage to win in the Kentucky Derby.  

Congratulations to Nick Costa for picking the Preakness superfecta in exact order! 

 

Kudos to Robert Marks for having the top four in his picks and to Michael Amo for picking National Treasure on top! 

Good Luck to everyone!

 

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Angel of Empire	Hit Show	National Treasure	Red Route One
John Caro	Angel of Empire	Hit Show	Forte	Arcangelo
Nick Costa	Hit Show	Angel of Empire	Tapit Trice	Tapit Shoes
Robert Marks	Angel of Empire	Tapit Shoes	Forte	Arcangelo
Rowan Ward	National Treasure	Forte	Angel of Empire	Arcangelo
Laurie Ross	Tapit Trice	Arcangelo	Angel of Empire	Hit Show