Saturday at 5:00 pm Eastern time is
the $100,000 Grade 3 Stakes for 3-year-olds fillies at Beautiful Santa
Anita Park in California. With next week being Kentucky Derby week, this is a
nice race to try to pad your betting account for Derby bets next week.
Here is a look at your field:
We will focus on these 3 horses out
of the 6-horse field:
The post time favorite is Ancient
Peace, an Ontario Bred making her Stakes Debut. She is at a morning line
price of 8-5. She won at Santa Anita, breaking her maiden last year going a
mile on the turf, and has a dirt win at Santa Anita in a one-mile allowance
race on April 8th.
Trainer John Sadler switches her
back to the turf and has her go an extra 1/8 of the mile, which should be no
problem as she is a War Front sire and has AP Indy on the Dam side.
5-2 morning line Paris Secret,
trained by Phil D’Amato, had a troubled trip last time out in her US Debut
going a mile on the Santa Anita turf finishing 4th.She has only run twice and looked very sharp
in her debut in Ireland easily breaking her maiden. Kazushi Kimura gets the
mount. Look for Kimura to run her wide, not looking for any traffic trouble
this time around.
We always like to look for value and
in short fields you must look at a longshot to do that. We like 12-1 longshot Una
Palabra who sports two wins out of five starts and two runner-up efforts at
Turf Paradise.
Her breeding, by multiple dirt
stakes winner McCraken, suggests she would do well over dirt and she’s run
twice on the dirt, a victory 3 races back and then a disappointing 8th
last time out in the Sunland Park Oaks.
I like the switch back to the turf
here and Una Palabra is probably the most seasoned horse in the field.She seems content to make a stalking trip and
I believe she will handle the distance. Victor Espinosa, no stranger to Santa
Anita, will be on board.
We look for Una Palabra to sit
chilly mid pack and pass the Ancient Peace and Paris Secret late to garner
victory.
Here is a
look at who we will be betting:
Bets: $100
dollar Budget
$50-win Una
Palabra
$2 Trifecta
Box: Una Palabra, Ancient Peace, Paris Secret (total bet $48)
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, I am the Turk, a 37 year horse handicapper who has been blogging since 2007.
My handicapping these days is primarily for races run over a route of grass, but an occasional foray onto dirt is always enjoyable. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity today.
My handicapping methods are a derivative of styles learned from reading handicapping authors like Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz, and when I was a younger, The Happy Handicapper, Robert Summers.
Yes, I refer to myself in the third person as The Turk. Originally I did this to protect my identity because I wasn't sure if my employer would frown upon an employee with a certain amount of fiduciary responsibilities writing about gambling.
Oh how the times have changed. For anyone who joined the work force in the 1980's, just think back to what was acceptable behavior and personal appearance back then compared to now. I'm not saying it was better or worse, I'm just saying it's very different.
In today's climate, writing about horse racing and gambling will most likely cause you to be ostracized for being a bit weird, but in the spectrum of workplace weird, on the harmless side of the scale.
What does any of this have to do with horse racing? I started to think about older horses when I looked at Rated R Superstar, the 1 horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, the $1.0 MM Grade 2 race at Oaklawn Park I am focused on today. This will be the 10 year old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy ($5,000 fee) 69th race.
When I started handicapping, and horses made more starts, it wasn't uncommon to see big start counts, but when was the last time in a Grade 2 you saw a 10 YO with that many starts? It's not often. A millionaire winner across the Oaklawn surface and approaching $2.0 MM in career earnings, I have a special place in my heart of the hard knocking veterans. His performance for his career in blacktype is just steady and consistent. Follow this link to read more about Rated R Superstar's 10th season debut from earlier this year.
Do you put time into studying the science and data behind racing?
In a 29 January 2011 published paper entitled, The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Race Performance, authors Marshall and Marksteiner generated data on the impact to Beyer Speed Figs over time. Horses were grouped into 25 categories based on age and the table above shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure.
In Rated R Superstar's case, 55 horses made 565 total starts when they were greater than 9 years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 565 races average 7.1 points or 0.5 standard deviations below their career mean speed figure (Diff and St Diff). This differential translates into 2.9 lengths for a 6 furlong race. It may seem obvious, but I find the curve up and the curve away to/from peak performance by age to be the interesting thing here and it fits my fact pattern for analyzing horses of different age competing against each other. Interesting yes, handicapping actionable data? I focus on recency, typically less than a year and less than past six starts, to peg current form and don't try to view the career starts and performance like this, but still, fascinating.
Ok, I clearly did not understand the assignment! Lets get after it.
It's a bit early to figure out what the track conditions will be. Weather is calling for some rain on Friday and slightly dryer Saturday.
The Essex Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 18 March 2023 at Oaklawn Park
The Gulfstream Park Mile G2: 1 Mile on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023
The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023
Recency. These three races seem to really pick up on today's contestants abilities and possibly their deficiencies. Let's put a pin in that for now.
The Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles over Dirt for 4 YO and Up
This is a compelling field, a blanket finish style of handicap, with a mix of early speed and closing turns of foot that I expect will intersect over the last panel. I like Last Samurai if I'm singling. Two 100+ Beyer wins over this track in grade 3's over past two months. 4 wins in 9 OP starts. Only one win in 9 tries at the distance, 25% winner in 20 starts over fast dirt. He's not outclassed by much, working well, solid connections and breeding, little to dislike but could easily finish out of the money too. I'm betting that his earlier tactical will put him on the rail out of the gate and his late speed will give him a look at the wire.
The next five runners to me are all toss ups with little to differentiate them. In no order, Pletcher adds Blinkers to Charge It. The horse looked unfocused and had no real fight in the Gulfstream Park Mile. Blinkers for Pletcher is a 18% win for first in 56 tries and blinkers in general drive a 19% win in 62 tries. Far outside but big early speed. Position and pace may dictate how much fight he has this race.
Proxy is a late speed monster. 5 Place or Shows in 7 starts at this distance, 1 win. Look at his close in Santa Anita Handicap, his belated late run in Pegasus G1, right down his Past Performances. Rosario, up, won with him in The G1 Clark last November where he ran on the pace. I expect he will try something similar.
The before mentioned Rated R Superstar should not win this race but his 25 starts over OP Dirt is more races than career starts for anyone else in the field and he will bring his best.
The ageless Kent Desormeaux rode a magnificent Santa Anita Handicap with Stilleto Boy who cannot be ignored. Show in the Pegasus at 45-1 two back. 4 of 4 lifetime in the money at OP, 14 of 18 in the money on fast dirt, early speed, Could be a real disruptive force here.
Finally, Classic Causeway at 4 YO makes second dirt start after spending the back half of 3 YO campaign on the turf. $1.4 M winner from some early 3 YO success, could go either way now.
What to do with all this? Most likely I'll be watching the tote board (which has become an increasingly frustrating exercise as late money pours in with no time to react for the little guy) and looking for a value play that runs counter to my handicap. A $2 Exacta of Rated R Superstar, Stilleto Boy, Last Samurai and Proxy, with two of the longer odds covered in Win-Place and two of the shorter odds in Place only is $12. I'd like to see Charge It, who is plenty capable, have a better effort before I back again.
I'll most likely come up with 10 more permutations of this bet construction before post time, so have fun with it yourself and good luck!
To some the Apple Blossoms mark Spring’s foliage in Arkansas.
To others it means a spring race at Oaklawn Park which bookends the Kentucky
Derby preps season.
If you have ever gone racing at Oaklawn Park or even have
seen a running of the Apple Blossom Handicap, you might tell a different story.
You might have seen Letrusko win it twice (2021-22) and come
up short one time. Or maybe you saw Azeri win it 3 times (2002-03-04). Or watched
the great Zenyatta win it twice (2008-10) while in her last attempt she offered
the crowd a curtsy.
If you had, you remembered the Apple Blossom Handicap as a
great grade one distaff for fillies and mares four-years-old and up. Enjoy.
This year, despite the small field, we are likely to see a
race to remember.
Secret Oath, winner of the 2022 Kentucky Oaks and second in
the Coaching Club American Oaks Stakes against the boys that same year will
head the field as the Morning Line favorite.
Clairiere returns to make amends after a traffic problem caused
her second in the Azeri Stakes this year. Two other females will join the fray
as spoilers looking to upset. Let’s look at the field.
1.Secret Oak (Arrogate) brings her record
of a first win in the last six races into this race. Her powerful close
overwhelmed the field in the Azeri Stakes about a month ago. She turned in a
bullet workout over the Oaklawn track for this race. The pace should be quick,
allowing her to relax and set up for the close.
2.Hot and Sultry (Speightster) returns to
try Secret Oath after a 4th place against her in the Azeri Stakes.
She had the lead in the stretch but finished a tight 4th. This time
she gets a 6-pound advantage from Secret Oath and may be closer at the wire. Norm
Casse who shows a 36%-win percentage at Oaklawn trains her. It could be a
three-horse photo taking time to sort out.
3.I Feel the Need (Keen Ice) seems like the
local horse filling the field for trifecta wagerers. Tries grades stakes for
the second time losing by 5 lengths in that year’s Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn. Next
race.
4.Clairiere (Curlin) is the 5-year-old matriarch
of the field accumulating over $2.1 million in winnings. Was favorite over
Secret Oath in the Azeri last out. Ran into traffic in the lane that slowed her
forward progress coming up short to Secret Oath. Joel Rossario takes the reins again
for the “payback.”
On paper some may call this a match race between Secret
Oath and Clairiere. At the wire it may look that way. Hot and
Sultry may spoil that with a cold exacta play. Racing with a 6-pound
advantage over Secret Oath and 5-pound advantage over Clairiere in
their last race may make a slight difference in the race but a big difference
at the wire. Expect Hot and Sultry to lead most of the way with Secret
Oath and Clairiere barreling down on her in the stretch. Will either
catch her? Yes, but in a photo.
Here is how they will finish:
4.Clairiere
(6-5)
2.Hot and Sultry (5-1)
1. Secret Oath (4-5)
3.I Feel the Need (20-1)
Handigamble:
Thoroughbred racing faces tough times ahead with heavy
competition from sports and casino gaming. The good old days of going racing to
make money are slowly going away.
Wagering on this race proves the point. Burning the midnight
oil on the Apple Blossom 2023 will return pocket-change in profits. Is it worth
risking our bankroll? I don’t think so unless you follow Jean Chodkowski’s
advice when confronted with super-calk to look for horizontal bets like Pick 4s
or 5s.
However, to see what appears to be a tremendous horse race where
the slightest mistake by a jockey or misstep by a horse makes the difference in
the outcome, but not the joy of watching a great race. That’s the difference
between a fan and a non-fan of racing.
Fans enjoy a race for the love of the sport. That may be the
future of Thoroughbred racing. Embrace the Apple Blossom as great competition
among horses, trainers, and jockeys. Enjoy the race.
If you must play, try the horizontal bet we suggest this
week’s Newsletter.
This weekend, ThoroFan heads to the Bluegrass state where some Kentucky
Derby prospects will see their stock rise, while others will see the Derby dreams
of their connections turn into smoke in the 99th
running of the Grade 1, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes going 1 1/8 miles
on the main track at Keeneland on Saturday, April 8.
A major steppingstone for the $3 million G1
Kentucky Derby, to be run May 6 at Churchill Downs, the Blue Grass Stakes offers
200 points toward qualification to this year's Derby on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale
to the first-through fifth-place finishers.
Tampa Bay Derby winner, Tapit Trice, trained by Todd
Pletcher has been installed as the 5-2 morning-line choice in a field of eleven
3-year-olds.
As
for Tapit Trice and Gotham Stakes winner, Raise Cain, who is also in the
Blue Grass field,both accumulated 50 points for their respective prep
victories and have virtually locked up a spot in Louisville.
The Blue Grass will go as the ninth race on
Saturday's 11-race program with a 5:15 p.m. ET post time.
ANALYSIS
With this event
being held on just the second day of the spring Keeneland meet, we do not know
how the track is playing in relation to running styles, so, I handicapped on
the assumption of a neutral track.
On paper, this Grade 1 event doesn’t appear very strong, Tapit
Trice and Blazing Sevens seem to be the most talented and I expect
one of the two to win this race.
I’ve always held firm in my belief that G1 races are won
by Grade 1 horses, and Blazing Sevens is such a horse, having taken the
Champagne Stakes last fall. He was fourth behind Forte in the G1 B.C. Juvenile,
beating more than half the field, after being hampered at the start, and was G1
stakes placed in the Hopeful at Saratoga last summer. In his only start this
year, he got bumped around pretty good heading into the first turn in the G2
Fountain of Youth and never got untracked, languishing near the back of the
pack for the entire race.
I’m willing to give him a mulligan for that no-show
effort. This appears to be a better spot, and trainer Chad Brown does well with
horses second off the layoff. In addition, Blazing Sevens gets first time
blinkers (another category Brown has had great success with) and the riding
services of Irad Ortiz. For me, it’s all systems go.
Tapit Trice had no early
interest in the Tampa Bay Derby, but certainly was interested late. He only ran
hard the last quarter-mile, but what a run it was, turning on the after burners
to motor to a two-length win. He’s been green early in a couple of his races, so
he’ll need an alert beginning breaking from the rail to stay intact with the
field. He’s gunning for four wins in a row, but in order to get it done, he
must improve and show more professionalism too. If he does, look for him in the
winner’s circle.
Verifying who was expected to
be the pacesetter in the Rebel, was outrun for the lead and tracked along the
inside rail into the far turn, where he was then surrounded by rivals and had no
place to really run until he finally found clearance late.
There is other speed to his outside in Major Blue,
so it’s imperative this Brad Cox horse break cleanly from post three. If he can
secure the lead, he could take this group a long way, especially if the track
is kind to front runners,
Sun Thunder was hindered by the
slow-paced Louisiana Derby where he had only two horses beaten at the
three-quarter mark but was able to improve his position from far back in the
field to finish fifth. The pace here should hopefully be more beneficial to his
closing style. He has been very competitive in his outings this year and
deserves some consideration to be on the board.
