Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

 Colonel Liam Kicks Off Gulfstream's Winter Meet in Ft. Lauderdale Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Folks the weather has just turned the corner in South Florida. From socks back to flip flops, almost. Might have a slight chance of rain in the forecast but the race should go as planned. If they do take it off the lawn it will be posted on the Tapeta at the same distance. In either case the mid-pack closers rule on either surface.

 

 

I'm not going to spend a lot of time and explanation given the large field in this one but I'll point to the contenders as I see them and a few longshots to play along.

Top Contenders

#12 – Colonel Liam – Pletcher/Ortiz, I – You may remember him from the last two Pegasus World Cups here. Certainly the class of the field. Steady speed figures and consistent. Must use in and wager.

#7 – City Man – Clement/Rosario – In the exacta winning 3 of his last 4 with a second place finish three back. Likes to be a close tracker off the lead. Will likely be in the top two. The connections do very well together.

Likely Longshots

#8 Winfromwithin- Delgado/Sutherland – Has good form and is the likely pace for the race. He's  coming off a break with good works along the way. Look only drawback is the colt has never gone the distance. I expect he will set the pace and get rundown but has a chance to show up in the exotics.

#4 Shadow Sphinx – Maker/Lopez – Older gelding who likes to close from off the pace. Could be interesting given the ‘Paco Factor’

#1 Street Ready – Wilkes/Saez – not a lot of stake experience but Luis has had him up to 101 on the grass and his form is very good. Also a front runner. Will have to include on my tickets.

#10 King Cause – Maker/Ortiz, J – He is coming off a front running win in the Knickerbocker in late October. A glance at the speed figures says he's not fast but if you look back at some of his work it's impressive. And I like José up for this ride. José has been pretty lights out at Gulfstream.

One more shout out for two true longshot #11 Good Governance and #5 Tango Tango Tango. Both of these guys are great closers and may add value to any wager you're making.

Last note, there is an Also Eligible #13 – Decorated Invader with Gaffalione as the pilot in the race from the Clement barn. He looks like a good replacement for any of the players above if one is scratched.

 

HANDIGAMBLING

This is a Trifecta only bet for this race and my intent is not to spend the rent money playing it.

$.50 Trifecta  -  7 & 10 with 7, 10, 12, 5 with 7, 10, 12, 5, 1, 4, 8, 11  Cost $18

I figure that will leave me enough to make a bet on TCU…..

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

 Baffert seeks record victory in Los Alamitos Futurity 

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

Saturday's feature in Southern California is the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), a 1 1/16 mile race that offers 10-4-3-2-1 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to its top five finishers. That means anyone who starts this race gets some Kentucky Derby points, since only five horses have entered the field.

 

 

 

This race is the successor to the Hollywood Futurity, which was moved to Los Alamitos after Hollywood Park closed. Though only one horse has won both this race and the Kentucky Derby, 1997 winner Real Quiet, six starters in this race have gone on to win the Run for the Roses. However, the most recent to do so was Giacomo, who ran second to Declan’s Moon in 2004 before upsetting the Derby the next year.

Other recent winners who made an impact include the classy, star-crossed Shared Belief (2013), perennial leading sire Into Mischief (2007), and important stallions Violence (2012) and Pioneerof the Nile (2008).

Let’s look at the field.

 

Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race a record 13 times, including a run from 2014-2020 (its first seven years at Los Alamitos) that was only snapped last year when Doug O'Neill's plucky Slow Down Andy pulled the upset.

Baffert sends out three of the five entraints this year with Carmel Road, Fort Bragg, and Arabian Lion. Though O'Neill is serving a suspension, his assistant Leandro Mora has the string and he has the maiden Tall Boy on the rail. Practical Move, who was put up over Fort Bragg in a maiden race two starts back, rounds out the field for trainer Tim Yakteen.

Sometimes the Los Alamitos surface can be a little quirky, and horses can love or hate it. However, we'll learn in the Futurity who takes to it or not: all five horses will be racing over it for the first time ever.

However, Fort Bragg, Practical Move, and Arabian Lion have all shown that they can run quality races over more than one racecourse. Tall Boy has only ever run at Del Mar, while Carmel Road ran two solid efforts at Del Mar but came up empty in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.

Often, speed is an asset in short fields. Arabian Lion has drawn well in that regard, as he gets the clean outside draw in a group of only five. He wired his maiden win, and stalked the pace and came up just short despite an extremely awkward first few jumps in that Keeneland allowance last out, still finishing 17 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place horse.  The question about Arabian Lion is distance, as he has yet to try going two turns. His dam being a sprinter raises some questions, though being by Justify he has a chance to stretch out.

Another positive sign in a race like this is when a horse steps forward going two turns, and that is the pattern with Fort Bragg. He finished only third behind speedy stablemate Speed Boat Beach in a five-and-a-half-furlong debut, though he woke up on the stretch out to a mile next out. Though he was disqualified from first to second in that outing, he wired a race at this distance last out at Santa Anita. Note that the tracked the pace in his two-back race, though, meaning he should stay well engaged in the likely case that he is outjumped to the front by Arabian Lion.

Among the rest of the field, Practical Move and Carmel Road both make sense for a piece, but Practical Move has a bit more upside and will likely be a bit more of a price due to not being trained by Bob Baffert. Practical Move took a nice step forward in his maiden win two starts ago,  despite some trip trouble. That was his only start over a two-turn trip, giving him room to step forward now that he stretches out again. Furthermore, with a few horses in this field who have shown some pace, he reliably sets off the pace and makes a move. Over a track that can give a fair shake to horses with that kind of running style, Practical Move can find his way into the picture.

Selections:

#5 Arabian Lion

#3 Fort Bragg

#4 Practical Move

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Starlet Stakes (G1)

 Longshot could shine in the Starlet

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

    

Bob Baffert is in an excellent position to earn his sixth straight victory in the Starlet since his charges account for about half of the seven-horse field.

 

The Starlet is carded as race 9, closing the card. Post time is 4:30 PT.

Let’s take a look at the field.

 

Doinitthehardway — Still a maiden after three starts, Street Sense’s daughter’s best finish was her last, when she stretched to a mile at Del Mar. Out of a full sister to Haskell hero Paynter, this Baffert trainee is bred to improve with maturity and distance, and her Brisnet speed ratings reflect this. She may contest the pace from the rail, or Ramon Vazquez may settle her directly behind the speed.

 

Classymademoiselle — The most experienced in the field with six starts under her girth, this daughter of Malibu Moon earned a maiden victory through DQ of the winner in her second-to-last start, in an off-the-turf mile event at Del Mar. Otherwise, Malibu Moon’s daughter hasn’t finished in the same zip code as her rivals.

 

Faiza — The least experienced with a sole start to her name, the daughter of hot first-crop sire Girvin beat a field of maidens by 3 ½ lengths, getting six furlongs in a sharp 1:09.28 at Del Mar. The second-place finisher returned to win. Faiza’s dam is a half-sister to the Baffert-trained multiple graded winner Thousand Words. Baffert has a 33% win rate with the maiden to stakes angle.

 

Fast and Shiny — Hoping for better results, Baffert switches Bernardini’s daughter back to dirt after two “not bad” beats on turf. Fast and Shiny had excuses in the Surfer Girl Stakes, she was rank and had to steady, but missed by only 2 ½ lengths. In her next turf outing, she had a comfortable lead, but weakened in the stretch, and finished sixths, 3 ½ lengths behind. Although she captured her debut on dirt, she wasn’t fast or shiny in the Del Mar Debutante, finishing 20 lengths out of it. Maybe she can rebound, but she’ll have to improve to win.

 

Uncontrollable —She’s the only multiple stakes-placed contestant in the field and had minor trouble in all three starts. She just missed the victory in the Chandelier (G2) by three-quarters length. The McCarthy trainee’s speed ratings have improved in every outing, and she meets a softer group in the Starlet.

 

Pride of the Nile — She’s won two of her last three starts and her speed figures have risen in every outing, despite some trouble, and in her debut, which was against winners, she closed to finish furth, making up almost four lengths in the stretch. Sounds good, right? Not so fast. All three starts were over the lawn. By Pioneerof the Nile out of a multiple Grade 3-winning dirt mare, Pride of the Nile should handle dirt, as her siblings have. Leandro Mora, pitch hitting for his suspended boss Doug O’Neil, has one winner and two third-place finishers from eight starters when he takes over.

 

Blessed Touch — After winning her second start by 8 ¾ lengths, Blessed Touch followed up with a second-place finish in the Desi Arnez Stakes. While she wasn’t a match for the winner, Girven’s daughter was 6 ½ lengths clear of the show horse. Fillies often regress slightly after their initial victory and step up after that.  

 

Analysis

This isn’t the strongest group assembled for a Grade 1 race, in fact, it reads more like an allowance for non-winners of three races.

In the last decade, 70% of the winners won or placed in a stakes in their previous start, four of them in the Desi Arnez Stakes. Four favorites won, and two were second.  

Most of this field are pacesetters/pressers. The sole stalker is Uncontrollable, and she gained with every step in the stretch in the Chandelier Stakes but ran out of ground.

If Pride of the Nile can transfer her form to dirt, she’ll be dangerous.

 

Selections

5. Uncontrollable (4-1)

6. Pride of the Nile (9-2)

7. Blessed Touch (5-1)

1. Doinitthehardway (7-2)