Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Charles Whittingham Stakes (G2)

 Golden Oldies vie in Charles Whittingham Stakes

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Formerly the Hollywood Turf Handicap, this event was renamed in 1999 to the Charles Whittingham Stakes in honor of the late Hall of Fame trainer’s seven victories. Two other trainers also have 7 victories (Neil Drysdale & Bobby Frankel), and John Henry won this race three times. It was moved to Santa Anita in 2014 when Hollywood Park closed.  

 

 

A field of seven are entered, and will start on Santa Anita’s famed downhill turf course. Since it is run downhill for the first 1/8^th of a mile or so, some feel this is not a true 1 ¼ mile test. If one had a question about your horse getting the distance, this is where to try. We’ll call it a mile and a quarter “light.”

The weather will be perfect, sunny, in the 80's, with firm turf. Here’s the field with morning lines:

 

1.  Gregdar 15-1 - His diet of 3 turf sprints this year will have him close to the pace in this marathon. Last year, he won at 1 1/8^th and 2^nd at 1 ¼, so this try is not out of the question. Since he has yet to break through his 2x condition, the competition may be more the issue than the distance. PASS.

    2.   Dean Martini 15-1 -  The 2020 Ohio Derby winner has shipped to the left coast and started a career on turf. He had an OK run behind Masterofhounds in his 1^st race off the bench. He was even around and made no ground. Since he faces that foe and a few others of his caliber, Dean Martini will have belt out a command performance to compete (see what I did there?). PASS.

3.   Majestic Eagle 6-1 – Coming off 2 Turf Paradise Stakes with a 1^st and a 3^rd, this 7yo gelding has some back class going a bit shorter where he was there or thereabouts in some decent stakes. He’s won almost $500k in 35 starts and could get a slice with the right race. BOARD CONTENDER.

    4.   Dicey Mo Chara 4-1 – This 4yo seems to be coming into his own this spring. Leonard Powell, his trainer, sends him into this event in the 3^rd race of his form cycle and cutting back from a mile and a half. He should have plenty of bottom now after narrowly missing in the G3 San Luis Rey to multiple graded performer Acclimate. I expect him to stalk and pounce, and has some upside. WIN CANDIDATE.

    5.   Gold Phoenix 6-1 – Another entrant with upside. Phil D’Amato sends this 4yo Irish Bred into the deep end. In his last, he cleared the N1X condition after running 2^nd in a very productive (5 next out winners) “down the dip” allowance race on the San Filipe undercard. D’Amato is cagy at placing his horses in the right spot, and the “in form & up in class” angle may apply. WIN CANDIDATE. 

    6.   Masteroffoxhounds 2-1 – After winning the G2 San Marcos and running 3^rd in the G3 San Luis Rey last year, both turf marathons at Santa Anita, Masteroffoxhounds headed east to run in the two biggest Turf events in late spring/early summer. He got beat 5 in the Turf Classic at Churchill and beat 6.5 lengths in the Manhattan at Belmont. Both G1s and both loaded fields. He returned last month leading a conditional mile turf race through swift fractions only to be run down late. He should step forward off of that. WIN CANDIDATE.

    7.   Beyond Brilliant 9-5 – Is a horse who looks like he is best when able to control the pace. This was on display when he scored a front-running victory as a 3yo in the G1 Hollywood Derby at 1 1/8 miles. He was allowed to “walk the dog” and then just held against a decent group that day. BB took a step forward in his 4yo debut, almost wiring the G1 Kilroe Mile, which is Santa Anita’s spring turf fixture. However, I wonder how far he wants to go and how he needs to do it. If they let him lead a merry chase, he will be a tough customer in the stretch. This race starts on the hillside turf course, which will help his cause,  but with Gregdar stretching out from turf sprints and Masteroffoxhounds showing a new dimension last out, he may not get his way on the lead. WIN CANDIDATE.

 

Analysis

When handicapping, you have to “crack some eggs” somewhere and make some decisions factoring in who you think can win relative to what price the market gives you.

In the C. Whittingham on Saturday, I have narrowed down 4 of the 7 could win the race. It is clear that the 2 outside horses, Masteroffoxhounds and Beyond Brilliant, are the proven class of the field and deserving favorites. 

It is also apparent that it's hard to make any money betting 9/5 and 2-1 shots in exactas or win. That said, I will hang my hat on the up and comer Gold Phoenix. I like his trainer's aggressive placement, and I like that he should be 4^th choice. He clearly has a lot to prove, but in a 7 horse field, 6-1 is juicy enough to see what happens. 

 

The Play (based on $100 wager)

If I am right, this play pays me. If I am almost right and he runs 2^nd, I feel that that number will be undervalued as most players will try to split the two favorites, and Gold Phoenix is a logical one to use. 

$60 win 5

$20 exacta 5-6,7

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Letruska aims for second Apple Blossom victory

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $1 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap is an early-season prep for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Oaklawn Park’s  1 1/16 mile race for older fillies and mares has a prestigious roll-call of champions, including 3-time winner Azeri, Zenyatta, Midnight Bisou, and Untappable.

 

 

 

This year, despite the five-horse field, it’s another battle of champions.

 

Last year’s Apple Blossom heroine, Letruska, who earned 2021 Champion Older Dirt Female honors, is back to defend her title. The 6-year-old mare has lost only twice since December 2020. But, both times, she wasn’t on the lead. This year, the Fausto Gutierrez appears to be lone speed. Win Contender.

CeCe is Letruska’s main rival. Last year’s Champion Female Sprinter has successfully navigated 2-turns in two of four starts, including a by ¾ length victory in the Azeri (G2) here in her last start. The Mike McCarthy trainee will track the pace from the outside. If Letruska stubs a hoof, CeCe will take advantage.

Grade 1 winner Clairiere could be at a disadvantage. The confirmed closer will have to sit closer to the pace than usual. She’s done this unsuccessfully in the past, and the pace scenario won’t be in her favor. Still, she’s a talented filly and worth an exotics look.

Clairiere’s nemesis Maracuja drew the rail, where she can draft in behind Letruska. The Rob Atras trainee bested her rival in the CCA Oaks (G1) last year but lost two decisions to Clairiere at later dates.   Maracuja prefers 1 1/8 miles but handily beat Miss Imperial here in her first start of the year.

Miss Imperial will try her hardest to keep the pressure on Letruska but isn’t in the league of the other fillies and mares. I predict a speed/fade result. Toss.

 

Analysis

Letruska is poised to win her second Apple Blossom trophy. Last year, she gallantly fought Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver to a nose decision. This year’s competition is much softer, and unless she gets away from the gate poorly or tosses a rare clunker, Letruska is our winner.

 

2. Letruska (7-5)

5. CeCe (2-1)

3. Clairiere (5-2)

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

 Who can upset the Jenny Wiley Stakes?

By: The Turk

The Jenny Wiley.  Are you the the sort of horse player that cares enough about the names of these races to figure out why they are named, or no? I assume if you don't care about the names of the races, you probably don't care a lot about the the names of the horses, referring to them by their post positions. 

There is nothing wrong with either approach. I've tried for many years to be a horse racing fan. The sort of fan that cares about the names, the horse's, their pedigrees, their connections, interesting backstories and storylines. 

It hasn't gotten me very far except worried that the downward spiral of this sport may not be arrested. In the 1970's I was a fan of the offbeat: Boxing, Formula 1 and Horse Racing. Why? Sports Illustrated and ABC Wide World of Sports. I'm fascinated at the resurgence of F1, driven by the accessibility of the drivers and the circuit through television shows. It helps there is a governing body that cares about the sport holistically. 

 Horse racing, with their small thinkers and fiefdoms and refusal to take the eradication of performance enhancing drugs seriously enough, the blind eye to excessive on track deaths, can't/won't get out of their own way. All of this, at a fan website, Thorofan, mind you, was a long winded way to say there has to be a metaphor somewhere in the name of the Jenny Wiley.

Ms. Wiley was captured in 1789 right from her home by Native Americans, three of her children and her uncle murdered, a fourth child died in the harsh conditions, sold from one tribe to another, finally escaping after having a vision in a dream of what to do. 

Perhaps there is an escape and revival story for horse racing somewhere. Luckily, today's race is at one of the shrines of horse racing, Keeneland, to the north and west of Ms. Wiley's ordeal. 

 

It isn't tracks like KEE that are a problem, but then again, you can't have boutique meets like KEE, SAR, and my favorite, Kentucky Downs, without the year round back track support, ownership, and the fans. Thorofan is doing their part. 

 Enough old man rambling, let's get after this! 

 

 

 How is it good for horse racing to have two Trainer Chad Brown runners making up 85% of the morning line odds. A six horse field, with Scarabea also entered in Race 5and why wouldn't she go somewhere better than his bloodbath? 

Anyways, lets take a look at a few races to give these runners some context.  

The Queen Elizabeth II Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Yielding Turf KEE 16 Oct 2021  

 

The Pucker Up Stakes G3: 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf at Ap 14 August 2021. 

 

Yielding, Firm, Good. Shantisara is the real deal. Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3; 1 1/16 Firm Turf GP 29 January 2022  

 

The First Lady G1; 1 Mile Good Turf KEE 9 Oct 2021 

 

So what to do with this? The two favorites will be bet hard, with what I would expect Shantisara being the post time tote board leader. 

I'm going to take an $2 Place bet for $8 on all the non Chad Brown runners and hope for the Place upset. 8/5/2/1 

The turf should be somewhere between Good and Firm and no rain is in current forecast. 

You can find up to date track conditions here. 

Have fun friends. Turk out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

 Santa Anita Derby may be royalty in the making

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

The racing suspension facing Bob Baffert will have an unknown impact on this race. Baffert has his fingerprints on five of the horses originally nominated for the race. Of the six that make it to the gate, three came from the Baffert barn, now officially trained by Tim Yakteen (#2-Armagnac, #4 Messier, and #6 Taiba).

 

The weather this week leading up to the Derby will be very warm, floating around 98 degrees. It will cool to 89 degrees on Saturday. The track should be “California-fast.”  

Here is the field:

    1.   Happy Jack (Oxbow) bred and owned by Calumet Farms. He started out good, winning his first try. Then tried graded company in his next two, performing poorly and finishing those two off by a collective 38 lengths. Nevertheless, his works suggest he might be ready for the 9-furlong race. Needs to bring his “A-Game.

    2.   Armagnac (Quality Road) should be quick out of the gate. The biggest question is how long he will last. The 9 furlong seems out of his reach. Although the recent bullet work for 6 furlongs suggests he wants more, these are not enough to give him a chance.

    3.   Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) has the speed to dictate the pace. Bred for the distance. The race could be over just after the gates open. However, the race is loaded with speed setting-up for the front-runners to tire. One thing is for sure is he will not have his way alone on the front end as he did in the San Felipe Stakes.

    4.   Messier (Empire Makers) is one of the four front runners ready to fire. He has shown good energy as the wire approaches indicating he may carry his speed far enough for this race. His long works reinforce that thinking. However, layoffs and the absence of Baffert must be factored in.

    5.   Win the Day (Midshipman) is another O’Neill horse in the race. He took three attempts to break his maiden, not a good sign. His late-running style may be good enough to be in the lower exotics for this race. However, he lacks sufficient speed to compete beyond that point.

    6.   Taiba (Gun Runner) is trying to step into grade one company after only one maiden race in March. His win by 7.5 lengths must be respected. Looks like he wants to lead the pack. A tough task, given all the legitimate speed in the race. The Morning Line odds of 4-1 may signal something. Looks like he needs one before he is ready to compete at this level.

   

    Analysis

Forbidden Kingdom is the fastest and should control the pace. However, three others cannot let him get away and will be pushing him. The pace should be extremely hot. Messier will likely be Forbidden Kingdom’s may foe. The big if is, will O’Neill’s Happy Jack come around to form as anticipated in February? If he does, he will light-up the exotics. 

Here is how they will finish:

    #3.   Forbidden Kingdom (6-5)

    #1.   Happy Jack (20-1)

    #3.   Messier (1-1)

    #6.   Taiba (4-1)

Handigamble

$15 Exacta Box --#1 and #3 and #4 ---$90.00

 $5 Exacta Box ----------- #3 and #4 ---$10.00

 Good luck, but keep the day job!