Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Pegasus World Cup Invitational

 Knicks Go ready to take flight in Pegasus

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

It’s January folks, and that means only two things.

    1)   Snow, ice and freezing cold temperatures up here in the ‘Great White North’.

With that, I will pay homage to the late singer Meatloaf and borrow his lyrics: “The snow is really piling up outside and that ain’t getting us nowhere”.

    2)   Gulfstream Park is underway down south in Florida.

Given the two options, we choose the latter and get away for some warmth, sunshine and a fast track for this Saturdays $3 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational which drew a nine-horse field.

A total of seven graded stakes worth $5.2 million in purses will be offered on the Pegasus Day 12-card program, led by the World Cup, held at 1 1/8 miles and the $1 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, also contested at the same nine-furlong distance. In addition, race fans will see the debut of the $500,000 Grade 3 Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf, previously run as the Marshua’s River, which will be run at 1 1/16 miles

Since its debut in 2017, the Pegasus World Cup Invitational has grown into a signature event that helps to kick off the yearly schedule of top stakes races in the country.

Knicks Go and Life Is Good, a pair of Breeders’ Cup winners, headline this year’s Pegasus event. Both horses easily prevailed in their respective championship races back on November 6^th, and now, facing each other, are bringing horseracing fans to the edge of their seats.

Both the Pegasus Turf and the Pegasus World Cup will be televised live on NBC from 4:30-6 pm E.T.

Let’s have a brief look at the Pegasus World Cup horses from the rail out.

 

1 - KNICKS GO: Joel Rosario/Brad Cox: 6-5 - The defending champion of this race, and likely to be named 2021 Horse of Year at the Eclipse Awards next month, attempts to become the first back-to-back winner of the Pegasus. In addition to winning this race last January and closing out the 2021 season winning the B.C. Classic, another signature win on his resume was a triumph in the Whitney Stakes. He’s had a stellar racing career and I’ll be rooting for him, but win or lose, this is his farewell race before heading off to retirement.

 

2 - CHESS CHIEF: Reylu Gutierrez/Dallas Stewart: 10-1 - Winner of Tenacious Stakes the day after Christmas at Fair Grounds gets his first try at Gulfstream which marks his 10th different racetrack, but he’s had difficulty winning on the road as all five lifetime wins have come at the Fair Grounds. He’s a deep closer who will need a pace collapse. It could happen, but unlikely.

 

3 -STILLETO BOY: Kent Desormeaux/Ed Moger, Jr: 20-1 - His only stakes win came last summer in the listed Iowa Derby, but he hasn’t disgraced himself when facing elite competition. Just look at the cast of horses that have finished in front of this guy in his last three G1 races. Another minor award is probably his ceiling here.

 

4 - LIFE IS GOOD: Irad Ortiz, Jr/Todd Pletcher: 7-5 - Was a runaway winner in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, leading every step of the way and winning by six lengths. The Pletcher trainee has won five of his six lifetime starts and has been pointed here since his November win. Despite the nine-furlong distance being his farthest attempt, his talent makes him a major threat to bring home the top prize.

 

5 - EMPTY TOMB: Paco Lopez/Robert Falcone, Jr: 20-1 - He was claimed last summer at Saratoga, then finished last in a pair of stakes before rebounding to win an allowance race in November and finish second in the Queens’ County Stakes last month, both at Aqueduct. He’s in a tough spot to get his first career stakes win.

 

6 - SIR WINSTON: Edwin Gonzalez/Mark Casse: 12-1 - After being sidelined for nearly a year, the 2019 Belmont Stakes winner returned last year to win an allowance race at Woodbine and closed out the season there last month with a winning score in the Valedictory Stakes. After the top two marquee names, this horse is only other G1 winner. He now returns to dirt racing after a series of good efforts on synthetic.

 

7 - TITLE READY: Tyler Gaffalione/Dallas Stewart: 20-1 - Opened last season with a victory in the G3 Louisiana at Fair Grounds then was shipped overseas to try the G1 Dubai World Cup where he finished eleventh, beating just one opponent. In two outings since, he’s been third and sixth over off-tracks. Outclassed and probably prefers shorter distances.

 

8 - ENDORSED: Umberto Rispoli/Mike Maker: 20-1 - Most recently, he was runner-up in G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes to close out 2021 season. Hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since May 2020, a series of 15 starts and hasn’t raced this far in a non-turf start since the summer of 2020 at Saratoga. To his credit, he’s worked regular and swiftly, but going two turns off the break is a tough task to ask. He’s better suited to sprinting.

 

9 -COMMANDEER: Julien Leparoux/James Toner: 30-1 - Had a successful 2021 campaign as a three-year old winning three races from seven starts and missing a top three finish just once, and that occurred in his first outing last February. The Pegasus marks his first stakes try and a gigantic leap in class.

 

ANALYSIS

This looks like a heavyweight matchup. Will a retiring champion make a memorable exit, or will there be a grand inauguration of a new champ that will continue to dominate races and provide fireworks for the rest of the year?

Five of the last six Pegasus winners prepped for the race with a win in the prior Breeders’ Cup Championships, including Knicks Go last season. That’s a glaring statistic that bodes well for the two headliners this year with Life is Good and the returning champion coming off wins in the Dirt Mile and Classic, respectively.

Both horses are wicked fast speedsters who prefer to be on the lead, so this duel could start right out of the gate. It’s hard to separate the two of them with their similar running styles and on-track success. The two horses stand apart and are clearly superior to the others on full-dress handicapping.

The tricky question is, which horse should be bet to win, if either?

Take the higher-priced horse. Let the odds dictate your bet. Usually, one horse will be an underlay, the other a low-priced overlay.

Players can consider Knicks Go and Life is Good to have a relatively equal chance, and the rest of the field some chance. By this reasoning, either of the two horses is a fair bet at 2-1, but no lower, and an overlay at 5-2 or greater.

If both possibilities are underlays, pass.

Another scenario to consider is, if you feel both could run themselves to a standstill and open the door for a late running rival, then choose one of the off-pace horses you think can pull off the upset.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 LeComte Stakes (G3)

 LeComte more than a two-horse race

By: Rowan Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Kentucky Derby trail at Fair Grounds started earlier than usual this year, with the Gun Runner Stakes on December 26. It continues January 22 with the traditional beginning of the New Orleans spur: the Lecomte Stakes (G3).

The race takes its name from Lecomte: an equine star of the 1850s, a half-sister to Saratoga stakes namesake Prioress, and the only horse to defeat the great Lexington.  Though Lecomte was bred in Kentucky, he went to Louisiana as a yearling. He was named after his owner’s friend Ambrose Lecomte, a Louisiana landowner, and later gave a misspelled version of his name to the town of Lecompte, Louisiana.

The 2022 edition of the Lecomte Stakes drew a field of nine, who will compete for a $200,000 purse as well as Road to the Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1) for the top four finishers.

Though no Lecomte Stakes winner has yet gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, seven have won the Louisiana Derby, most recently International Star (2015).  The race has been a particularly live Preakness prep in recent years; in the last ten years, two of its winners have gone on to win Baltimore’s most important race: Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019). Last year’s winner, Midnight Bourbon, ran second in the Preakness as well.

The likely favorite in the 2022 Lecomte is #3 Pappacap, the class of the field. His versatility should suit him well, as there is quite a bit of early gas in this edition of the Lecomte, and Pappacap has been able to win either on or just off the pace. The question is when he will bounce back into that winning form, as he won his first two starts last year, but has not posed for the photographer since the Best Pal (G2) last August. However, he has been able to keep getting shares, as he was second behind Corniche in both the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last autumn. Regular rider Joe Bravo returns to the saddle, and his trainer Mark Casse has gotten a solid enough beginning to the Fair Grounds meet to bode well for Pappacap.

#5 Epicenter is already a stakes winner over the course and distance, winning the Gun Runner Stakes authoritatively. Though he is one of several speed horses, he proved in both his maiden win and the Gun Runner that he can dispute the pace and keep going strongly, something Epicenter will have to prove again. The jockey assignment is a little strange, since on all form Epicenter appears to be the Steve Asmussen “A” entrant, but his last-out rider Brian Hernandez rides Presidential instead. However, Joel Rosario does come in to ride — and Rosario had the call on Epicenter’s maiden win, making the jockey assignment less of a concern than it would otherwise be.

The most interesting new face to the stakes level is #4 Trafalgar.  He has won twice in three starts, including a head victory in a N1X over this course and distance on December 2. Though it has been about a month and a half since that score, he won that race first off of a two-month layoff, proving that he can handle a bit of time off before a race, for a trainer (Al Stall) who has a strong record with those kinds of breaks. What makes Trafalgar most appealing is the versatility he has shown. Though his allowance win came from just off the pace, he was off slowly in his maiden win, settled toward the rear, and made a winning run. That proves Trafalgar does not need everything his own way, and can carve out a winning trip from wildly different shapes. He needs to move forward against these tougher horses, but is going the right way and has the upside to be the spoiler.

A short word about #6 Cyberknifeis appropriate. He is also a maiden winner over course and distance, and his connections (trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux) are strong at Fair Grounds. But, he will likely be overbet on that angle, and with the blinkers going back on, there is a good chance he will be one of too many speed horses, in a race where he ceded both that pace disadvantage and experience against classier horses.

 

Selections

#4 Trafalgar (5-1)

#3 Pappacap (8-5)

#5 Epicenter (9-5)

 

Longshot:  #8 Call Me Midnight makes his first start since a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a 48/1 longshot. However, off the layoff, he does have several positive points for a big price. Though the Kentucky Jockey Club attempt was a disappointment, he has a good second-place effort in his other mile and a sixteenth race, a maiden special at Keeneland last October. That came with jockey James Graham in the irons; Graham, who is having a smart start to the Fair Grounds meet, returns for the Lecomte. And, with so many speed horses entered in the field, Call Me Midnight could work a good trip.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Pasco Stakes

 Betting the Pasco Stakes no easy task

By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Tampa Bay Downs’ road to the Kentucky Derby starts in earnest this Saturday with the 7-furlong, $125k Pasco Stakes. Whether or not this event, carded as race 5, will produce a Classic runner remains to be seen. However, at this time of year, trainers like to throw horses against the proverbial wall to see if they go on the Derby trail, so it does offer an interesting handicapping exercise at a track I don’t often play. 

Let’s dive in and look at the field.

 

 

1.       Provocateur – (A. Gallardo; T. Pletcher) 3-1:  This good-looking bay son by Into Mischief hails from Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher for MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm. Each year Pletcher deploys part of his string up to Tampa to pick off these lucrative stakes and is usually well represented. Provocateur started long on the turf at Belmont in the late fall, which tells me that the barn thinks he is a distance horse. That day he didn’t show much run as the favorite but came back in a pair of sprints and looks to be coming around nicely. The way he polished off his maiden win over this track suggests he has plenty of upside. However, there is concern about him going from the outside stalking trip he had to a potentially pressing rail trip with other speed to his outside. WIN CONTENDER.

2.       Cyberviking – (C. Sutherland; J. Delgado) 7-2:  In his last two races, Cyberviking showed some versatility which is a good racehorse trait. Two back, he dueled on the lead while three wide, and when he made the lead, he waited on foes. He dug in well and won better than the head margin suggests. In his last race, he was outsprinted early but made a wide-sweeping move into an ok pace. I like when horses show different dynamics and can overcome adversity. That said, he is coming from cheaper races and will have to take a step forward to get his picture taken, but he does seem to have ability. WIN CONTENDER.

3.       Morgan Point – (J. Jude; C. Stewart) 10-1:  In his last race, Morgan Point fell out the back of a sharp pace but rallied wide and won off. During his rally, he lugged in and drifted a bit. But he won with his ears up and looking for more. Again, I see some talent in the youngster, but he needs to mature and run straight to contend with these. His pilot, Sammy Camacho, opts off him to ride the morning line favorite. LONGSHOT CHANCE.

4.       Markhamian – (M. Meneses; J. Avila) 4-1:  Juan Avila brings this Florida-bred son of Social Inclusion up north off a decent maiden score at Gulfstream. In that win, he tracked the pace three-wide around the turn and won off in a way that would suggest he can stretch out. This seems like a logical step. However, he will have to improve a bit on speed figures and wade out into open company. OUTSIDER.

5.       Cattin - (S. Camacho; R. Nicks) 2-1: This Florida bred son comes into The Pasco with “street cred.” He ran in two Florida Stallion series races last year and then came back off the bench to win the 6F Inaugural stakes right here at Tampa. Cattin took a step on The Sheets in that win, and I expect further improvement. WIN CONTENDER.

6.       Gold Special – (L. Panici; A. Rodriguez) 10-1:  Clearly the most experienced of the field, this charge will be rolling late if the pace is hot. He owns five in-the-money finishes out of 8 attempts, but he has finished behind a few of these in the past. OUTSIDER.

7.       Magical Mousse – (I. Castillo; J. Cruz) 12-1:  A speedy sort from an outside box getting blinkers for the first time alerts me to a possible pacesetter. He broke his maiden while on the engine for a tag of 40k before being sent off at 5.30-1 in the aforementioned Inaugural Stakes. Cattin was 4.70-1 in there, so somebody thought he had some ability. However, he dueled through sharp fractions in that stake race and wilted. I would expect him to improve first-time blinkers (trainer is 18%), and if they leave him alone early, he may get brave. BOARD CONTENDER.

 

Analysis

These types of races generally go through the Pletcher Army. Todd shipped Provocateur to Tampa to get a spin on the track in a 25k MSW. It clearly wasn’t a money grab but could potentially have been a dress rehearsal for bigger things to come. 

Provocateur is fast enough to clear most of the field, save the outside horse. I can see him getting a nice cozy stalking trip. 

Cattin seems like the goods. He is the most accomplished. It’s a logical progression for him, and he is the worthy 2-1 morning-line favorite. 

Cyberviking has upside but gets the acid test here. Morgan Point will need to improve, but you will get paid if he does. Finally, Magical Mouse will take them as far as he can and may hang around for a slice.

If they hang Provocateur anywhere close to his morning line of 7-2, he’s my guy. I don’t think he will be that price, so a win bet may not be in the cards. I will try and get one of the longer prices underneath and hope that Cattin regresses at the 2-1 ML. If Cattin floats up and Provocateur down, that may switch in my play.

 

The BET based on $100

$30 exacta 1-37 = 60

$12 exacta 37-1 = 24

$16 exacta 1-5