Handicapper's Corner: 2021 LeComte Stakes (G3)

LeComte Stakes Picks N' Plays

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

 

Though the Kentucky Derby trail technically began last September, the major sequences of three-year-old preps get underway in earnest in Saturday’s 13^th race at Fair Grounds. Set to go at 6:49pm Central Time, it’s the first in the three-race Fair Grounds spur of the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The $200,000 race offers points (10-4-2-1) to its top four finishers, and it drew a field of eleven to compete for those spoils.

 Mandaloun comes in as the horse to beat for a high-percentage pair, trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux. Drawn in the 10 gate of 11, he is a little wide, but also should be able to work out a fairly clean trip from there. And, though he stretches out to a route for the first time, he has shown enough ability to pass horses going one turn to suggest that he should be able to get at least an outside tracking trip. He’ll probably be close to the front given the stretch out to a mile and a sixteenth, though being by Into Mischief out of a mare who did win several times at a mile and a sixteenth, this distance should not pose a problem for him. Though the further distances down the Derby trail may raise questions, we’re looking at just the Lecomte this time, and that should suit.

The biggest question for Mandaloun is how close he probably will be to the pace, given the stretch out. With a lot of speed drawn into the race, it’s worth watching how the track plays throughout the day. Assuming it plays in any way fairly to closers, this looks like a good spot to get more of a price with a horse who may get a better trip. 

Enter Arabian Prince. Though he drew toward the inside of a large field, it shouldn’t hurt him as much as it might someone who would have to jockey for position, since he should be able to settle toward the rear and let the pace unfold. He has stakes experience from Churchill Downs, with both of those stakes tries coming at two turns, so he has some grounding underneath him. If he can build on that, the trip may help him along to stakes victory at a square price.

Proxy has proven that he loves Fair Grounds. He ran well on debut at Monmouth in October, missing by a neck over a mile, but he has won both of his starts in New Orleans so far. Though both of his victories at Fair Grounds have come on the front end, he rallied from toward the rear in that debut at Monmouth, suggesting he has the versatility not to get bogged down in what is likely to be a well-contested pace. And though he loses rider Angel Suarez, who was injured last month, there is a long history of trainer Michael Stidham giving Mitchell Murrill live mounts, dating all the way back to Murrill’s bug days in Chicago.

 

Selections:

#2 Arabian Prince (6/1)

#10 Mandaloun (3/1)

#4 Proxy (6/1)

Longshot:  A couple of horses in the Lecomte are coming in from the Lone Star/Remington circuit; Fair Grounds will be a step up. However, #8 Red N Wild (20/1) should be a good enough price to consider, at least as an exotics chance or for big longshot players, despite the rise in class. His running style has been interesting; he is a strange example of a horse who showed a lot of speed in sprints but has transitioned to an off-pace style on the stretch out to two turns. That should play to his advantage in this race, with so much speed drawn in. As long as the track is playing fairly to horses coming from off the pace, Red N Wild has the right running style to be an interesting dark horse in the Lecomte.