Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)

 A Three-Peat or an Upset? How About Both?

By: Alex Sausville, Off The Turf Podcast

 

A race like most west coast Kentucky Derby preps in which its dominated by the likes of Bob Baffert, Saturday’s renewal of the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes looks to have that similar feel.

Baffert comes in with a slew of superstars heading towards the first Saturday in May, including a colt who narrowly trailed the trailblazing Life Is Good last time out. Medina Spirit looks to be a heavy favorite to capture the 10 derby points on the line, however with a talented field set to turn up; I’m far more interested in the Baffert runner lining up from the far outside.

It’s been quite the interesting early campaign for Spielberg, who started out at the sprinting distance, including a Grade 2 placing in the Del Mar Futurity. He then was extended out to a mile and a sixteenth to place 3rd in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. After that, it seemed connections were still a bit unsure of what the prime distance was for the $1 Million dollar Keeneland September yearling purchase, with attempts back at 7 Furlongs, one mile, and his coveted stakes victory at this same distance in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. When analyzing this horse, he has been very competitive at the various distances he competed, and with this race, it seems they may have found where he belongs. As an experienced three-year-old in this field and what should be a good price with an assumed underlay on Medina Spirit, Spielberg should be primed to find a nice stalking trip off the leaders and make a big run in the straight. Not saying he will win by open lengths, but in this game a win by a nose or neck pays just as well.

One horse who will definitely take some money in this spot is the Doug O’Neill trained Hot Rod Charlie. Following a massive effort at the Breeders’ Cup to finish just behind Godolphin’s Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie comes back to prove that his first effort in stakes company was no mere fluke. This horse has excelled since getting over the mile distance and seems to be progressing nicely; however he has been off since the Breeders' Cup and may need a run to get back to his top effort. In this case I can see him having some decent pace to close into and if he shows up could be there on the line, however I need to see how he backs up that last performance before he lands on my ticket.

With what looks to be the dominance of Baffert’s two contenders, I had my eye out for a price that could pick up the pieces late if anything crazy ensues up front. In this race, I didn’t have to look long as Rombauer looks picture perfect in that role. Now that he’s found a home on the dirt, Rombauer’s late closing style could end up working perfectly in this spot and despite his best effort coming in a weaker rendition of the Grade 1 American Pharoah, I thought his effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile would be good enough for a piece this weekend.

 

My Bets:

$40 Win: 8 - Spielberg = $40

$3 Tri: 8/1,2/All = $36

$2 Tri: 1/2,8/All = $24

Total: $100

 

Final Thoughts:

Once the right spot is found for Spielberg, I expect to see him really start to excel during his three year old campaign and possibly beyond. It’s been a lot of trial and tribulation so far, but I believe that spot has been found. This race should be a perfect start for Spielberg on his quest to the starting gate in Kentucky and although he may run into a barn mate who looks to take a world of beating, he should be up for the task. It’s going to be a thrilling rendition in the early stages of many derby campaigns and despite only having Grade 3 status, the honor roll of the Robert B. Lewis speaks for itself.

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1)

 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Picks n' Plays

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

 

The Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1) is one of the highlights of Gulfstream Park’s elite winter meet. Originally monikered the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, the race was given a substantial purse boost and re-named in 2017.

A dozen older horses were invited to compete in the 1 3/16-mile turf event, and all except the up-and-coming Colonel Liam have won or placed in graded stakes. Carded as Saturday’s eleventh race, the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational has a post time of 4:50 PM ET. The weather in Florida is beautiful, and the turf will be firm. 

 

 

The majority of the field is comprised of contenders from the barns of Todd Pletcher (3), Michael Maker (2), and Claude “Shug” McGaughey III. Maker won the event in 2020 with Zulu Alpha.

 

COLONEL LIAM is the lukewarm favorite at 7-2, based on his recent 3 1/2-length victory in the Tropical Park Derby. In his first start off a four-month layoff, the Todd Pletcher trainee recorded a 106 late-pace Brisnet speed figure, the highest in the field. The pretty gray 4-year-old colt missed by just 3/4-length after a troubled trip at this distance in Saratoga. Colonel Liam has tactical speed.

 

The largest threat could be Colonel Liam’s stablemate, LARGENT (9-2). Into Mischief's son won the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2) by two lengths in his first start off the layoff and his first foray into graded company. Pegasus contender Breaking the Rules was third in the race. Largent has won or placed in all nine starts, with five of those races at Gulfstream Park; however, this is his first attempt beyond 1 1/8-miles.

 

BREAKING THE RULES (10-1) couldn’t stay with Largent when the pair charged down the stretch in the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2). However, the turf was good not firm, and Breaking the Rules does his best over firm going. The well-bred McGaughey trainee has hit the board in all three starts at Gulfstream and enters with a sharp pre-race turf bullet. He’s one to keep on your radar for a runner-up chance.

 

CROSS BORDER (15-1) tuned up at the Fairgrounds and returns to Gulfstream, where he had a heartbreaking head loss in last year’s W. L. McKnight Stakes (G3). He rarely throughs a clunker and is brought to you by last year’s  Pegasus World Cup Turf winners Maker/ Gaffalione.

 

We got to know ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (5-1) during the 2019 Triple Crown season. Switched to the lawn, Scat Daddy's son captured the San Gabriel Stakes (G2) by 2 1/2-lengths, beating Pegasus entrant Next Shares. The Peter Miller trainee has his work cut out for him, but he’ll be forwardly placed.   

 

SOCIAL PARANOIA (8-1) won his tune-up for the Pegasus sprinting at Gulfstream. He’s won three of four starts over this course and was out of the money only once since 2019. The Pletcher trainee has a series of bullet works, which is unusual for the barn, and this guy could upset the applecart.

 

Remember STORM THE COURT (12-1)? He was the bomb longshot winner of the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After a spotty record on the dirt, Peter Eurton finally switched the son of Breeders’ Cup Mile hero Court Vision to the turf. The colt has placed in two of three starts on the lawn. He’s suspect at longer distances and only hits the board if he can make the early lead. I mention this because if Leparoux hustles Storm the Court out of the gate and grabs the lead, there’s the slight possibility that the colt could hang on for a minor award. Leparoux won the 2018 Pegasus Turf with front-running tactics, although with a higher caliber horse.

 

Selections:

This year’s Pegasus Turf lacks previous years' star power, but it’s still a competitive race.

#6 LARGENT (9-2)

#2 BREAKING THE RULES (10-1)

#5 COLONEL LIAM (7-2)

#9 CROSS BORDER (15-1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1)

 Pegasus World Cup Picks n' Plays

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Gulfstream Park in South Florida is the place to be this Saturday as the fifth running of the 1 1/8-mile $3 million Pegasus World Cup, along with $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf will be contested. Both races will be part of an extraordinary program featuring seven graded stakes.

 

 

Neither of trainer Bob Baffert’s two early Pegasus candidates, defending champion Mucho Gusto and Arkansas Derby winner, Charlatan, will make the Pegasus Cup race. The former was retired due to an injury, while the latter who also won the Malibu Stakes following a seven-month layoff, will wait for next month’s Saudi Cup.

Baffert, who won the inaugural Pegasus Cup running in 2017 with Arrogate also saddled West Coast to a second-place finish in 2018 edition.

In addition to the absence of the two California stablemates, the Pegasus Cup will be without four-time Grade 1 winner, Tiz the Law, who was being pointed to this spot following his sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but also had to retire because of an injury, and the unbeaten Godolphin runner, Maxfield, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity in 2019, who came down with a respiratory illness.

The void of the four marquee names certainly took plenty of horsepower (no pun intended) out of the $3 million event, however, a full field of 12 talented older horses, including a trio of bonafide G1 winners, are set to do battle.

Entry in both Pegasus races were by invitation only, and the horses must run free of all race-day medication.

The winner of the Pegasus World Cup receives an automatic entry into the next month’s $20-million Saudi Cup.

Fans were will be allowed on site, but attendance for this year’s Pegasus Day has been reduced by 20%. There will be strict social distancing protocols, as well as new health and safety guidelines in place for both spectators and riders.

NBC Sports will broadcast the two races live from 4:30-6:00 pm EST with scheduled post time for the Pegasus Cup Turf at 4:59 and Pegasus Cup at 5:44.

Here is a brief capsule of the horses for the Pegasus Cup from the rail out.

 

 

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer ML

1 - Sleepy Eyes Todd – Jose Ortiz/Miguel Angel Silva 8-1 - Won the Mr. Prospector Stakes over this track in December, and has been a model of consistency, winning eight of 15 lifetime starts while racing at 11 different tracks.

2 - Coastal Defense – Corey Lanerie/Dale Romans 15 -1 - Has recorded a pair of fourth-place finishes in his only two graded stakes appearances, which happened to be his last two starts, and he wasn’t beaten by much in either one.

3 - Independence Hall – Flavian Prat/Mike McCarthy 20-1 – He gets two-turns for the first time since last year’s appearance here in the Florida Derby. As a juvenile, he won the Nashua by over a dozen lengths.

4 - Knicks Go – Joel Rosario/Brad Cox 5-2 – Enters the Pegasus off three consecutive wins since moving into the Cox barn. He became a multiple Grade 1 winner with his impressive score last out in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

5 - Jesus’ Team – Irad Ortiz, Jr/Jose D’Angelo 8-1 – Came out a winner in the Claiming Crown Jewel here in December, following a runner-up placing in the BC Mile one month prior. He was third in both the Preakness and Jim Dandy last year.

6 - Kiss Today Goodbye – Mike Smith/Eric Kruljak 10-1 – Lightly-raced runner pulled off the upset in the San Antonio last start when he closed from last to defeat, among others, Mucho Gusto, who certainly would have been among the top choices for this event.

7 - Tax – Luis Saez/Danny Gargan 5-1 – Came off a seven-month layoff in December to score a wire-to-wire win the Harlan’s Holiday. After stumbling at the start of last year’s Pegasus, he never got untracked and finished ninth.

8 - Harpers First Ride – Angel Cruz/Claudio Gonzalez 10-1 - Enters the Pegasus having won four of his last five starts, including a victory in the Pimlico Special. This will be his first attempt at the Grade 1 level.

9 - Last Judgment – Paco Lopez/Mike Maker 20-1 - Stretched out nicely in distance to win the Sunshine Classic over this surface one week ago. Waters gets much deeper now facing top-level competition.

10 - Code of Honor – Tyler Gaffalione/Shug McGaughey 9-2 – This race marks the 13th consecutive appearance in a graded stake for this 5-year-old and his ninth start in a Grade 1 contest. He is a multiple G1 winner conditioned by a Hall-of-Fame trainer.

11 - Mr Freeze – John Velazquez/Dale Romans 15-1 – Before winning a pair of Grade 2’s last year, he led the field for three-quarters in this race before being passed, but dug in and held for second. Unplaced in his last two outings, the BC Mile and Clark.

12 - Math Wizard – Edgard Zayas/Saffie Joseph 20-1 - Locally-based horse is a Grade 1 winner who was runner-up to the Breeders' Cup Classic show finisher, Global Campaign, in the Monmouth Cup last summer.

 

ANALYSIS:

All four previous winners of this race were forwardly placed (within two lengths of the lead at the first call) and were first or second choice in the wagering.

Those past statistics bode nicely for the speedy Knicks Go, who figures to be favored by the bettors, and who pace wise, appears to have this field over the ‘proverbial barrel”. The BC Mile winner is almost certain to go to the front with his dominating speed, forcing the others to try to catch him.

There are a couple of other horses in here that have displayed early foot in prior races, but none of them appear capable of matching strides with Knicks Go in the early stages.

Nicely drawn in gate four, Knick Go is in terrific form and red-hot since joining the Brad Cox barn. Although he is untested at the nine-furlong distance, the manner in which he won the BC Mile indicates the extra ground shouldn’t be an issue. He possesses all the credentials to win this race. In addition, the speed-favoring Gulfstream surface certainly will be beneficial to his early style.

Code of Honor would have been my top pick, but he faces an extremely difficult assignment after drawing wide in stall 10. To his credit, he is certainly no stranger to large fields. He’s consistent, has demonstrated good form over this surface and has faced the most advanced competition.  Two things need to happen for him to overcome his post - A flawless trip, and plenty of pace help. That’s asking quite a lot, but with his class, I can’t see this horse finishing out of the top three positions.

Sleepy Eyes Todd changed up his racing strategy the last two races when coming from well off-the-pace. But with his inside draw here, it’s likely he will come out running to avoid getting trapped, and secure good position just behind Knicks Go and then hope that one gets leg weary in the final eighth. However, if connections have the rider employ the same racing tactics that have been successful recently, (if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it) he could rate nicely and his strong late kick is capable of picking up the pieces late if the pace weakens.

 

WAGER: I’ll construct superfecta tickets using my top three contenders above and mixing in Tax, Jesus’ Team, Kiss Today Goodbye, Mr Freeze and Coastal Defense.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!