Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

Dancing through the Apple Blossoms 

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

I hope everyone out there is doing well and staying healthy. Thankfully, the tracks that have been allowed to stay open have been practicing the fundamentals of safety during the pandemic and allowed us to see the only live sporting events in the country, albeit without the crowds. But aren’t we lucky to have it? And for those of you who are tournament fans, the pools have grown large because we are staying home.

This is great. A Grade I race with all the lovely older ladies showing off their style, speed, and agility. With some of the best top 50 jockeys and the country’s top trainers in a race that always solidifies a career for the winning filly or mare.

The top contenders for this one are as the morning line has them spread out. Though the prices may not be in that order they finish, here are three girls whose prices are more favorable to launch an excellent exacta bet.

#11 - Serengeti Empress (4-1) – Amoss/Talamo – No question here as last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner steps forward into a wide post. But that’s where she came from in the Oaks. Can Talamo find her in the clear as he did in the last out here in the Azeri winning by 6? Maybe not. Larger field, more traffic and some other speed next door in the #10. ITM

#4 Come Dancing (3-1) – Lukas/Geroux – She doesn’t need the lead and tracks at high speed on a target. Draws well for this race as the run to the turn is reasonable. The thing I like about her is her stats. She’s been in the exacta 10 of her 14 races. Some might say she’s a sprinter, but I think the pedigree says different and her record shows it. The layoff may be a concern but her work tab says different. My top pick.

#14 CeCe (7/2) – McCarthy/Espinoza – Talk about a post in the right field. How unlucky for a filly that is three for five lifetime, and one second. She is an exacta princess any time. Victor is going to have to work out a trip. Will not leave her off my ticket.

And now the ones the ML don’t make sense to me.

#13 Lady Apple (15-1) Asmussen/Santana – How interesting that Apple should be in the Apple Blossom. Kismet? She is five for six at the distance, has beaten S. Express at the distance and is three for four at Oaklawn. Did I mention the trainer is the top money winner for 2020 to date or that the jockey (coming off a ten-day suspension) won four and placed once yesterday bringing home two longshots in excess or 17-1? This is the connections playground and they do very well here. If I get 10-1 or better, I’d be surprised.

Joe Saffie, Jr. (26% wins/56% ITM) brings two with him for the jump. #7 Queen Nekia (20-1) and #10 Cookie Dough (10-1), both are yummy at the prices. Queeny may not look like much given her odds but she’s been in the money 20 of 24 at lower levels and the only one in the field that broke 32 seconds in the last 2.5 furlongs. She was ¾ short of a ties with Cookie Dough. Cookie can get 32 seconds and may improve in her second start off the layoff. Saffie has been slaying them at Gulfstream. Have to use these gals. 

#1 Ollie’s Candy (12-1) – Sadler/Rosario – Who doesn’t like Candy. Has seen some wicked competition in her eleven race career but, she done well with seven of those in the exacta. Second off the layoff, two wins at the distance, gets this year’s (so far) #2 jockey work tab is stellar and again, who doesn’t like Candy? 

#12 Go Google Yourself (12-1) – McGee/Hernandez – A very scary combination. Except for a bobble at the start two back she might have had four in a row. She comes off a nice win in Grade III company and she’s familiar with an outside draw. 15 out of 19 in the money and 12 in the exactas.  McGee is 22% in stakes and Brian loves a route race. Watch out for this combo.

Last of them in my mind is #5 Point of Honor (10-1) – Weaver/Van Dyke – Another sleeper. Took a long break since August Castellano took her out for a spin to come second missing by four so here is the set-up. She’s been in the exacta 6 of 7 races winning 3, she’s a solid closer into speed and one of Curlin’s girls. She seems good to me for any mega exacta play.

To me the rest are “Go Fish”

Handi-Gamble – get your past performances for free here:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/JohnSadler/SADLER+JOHN+W/9999/summary.htm

I’m making an Exacta with a mix of high and low odds using all of the above.

$1 Exacta Key – 4, 5, 10, 12, 13 with 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 = $40

$10 Win – 7, 5, 10, 12, 13 = $50

Alternative bets

$0.50 Trifecta – 4, 5 with 4, 5, 7, 10, 13 with 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14  = $28 

$2 Exacta Box – 4, 5, 7, 10, 12, 13 = $60

Personally, I like Come Dancing as my top pick. She fits me. You could key her with any of the others and have a great time.

Good luck and everyone take care out there.

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Oaklawn Mile

Oaklawn Mile: Proven class versus newcomers

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off 

Saturday's ninth race at Oaklawn is the second running of the Oaklawn Mile, a $150,000 race that drew a full field of fourteen older horses to contest it.  

Benefiting from the cancellation of so many other races in the handicap division over the last month, it drew a mix of proven graded stakes horses like Grade 1 winner Tom's d'Etat, top three-year-olds trying to flourish at four like Mr. Money and Improbable, Oaklawn dirt route stakes stalwarts, and several who are taking a shot classwise.

The pace in the Oaklawn Mile should be honest, thanks to a contingent of longshots who have nothing to lose.  Rail-drawn Slick Silver, who takes a class test, tends to be keen early and will have to send from the rail against a group like this. Home Run Trick and Kershaw, both drawn further outside, need to be on the early lead to run a winning race.

There are others with tactical speed, and that's where we get into horses with a better shot.  Tom's d'Etat makes his first start since the Clark Handicap but has been strong enough when fresh to figure he will run a good race despite the layoff.  Though he can show speed when necessary, he can stalk the pace or even sit midfield, and Joel Rosario has plenty of experience rating and rallying with him.  Though he has yet to run at Oaklawn, he has taken his form on the road enough that he should be able to handle it, wet or dry.  He looms squarely the one to beat.

Another one to consider at a price, if spreading on top or taking a shot in the win pool, is Snapper Sinclair.  He has hit the board in each of Oaklawn's three route stakes for older horses this meet.  He gets a rider change to Florent Geroux, who has been sharp in limited starts at Oaklawn, and his pace-versatility will give Geroux the option to sit him virtually anywhere.

Beyond them, there are several others who are worth using underneath.  At boxcar odds, the in-form M G Warrior should be able to use his best running style -- sitting back and making one run -- to better effect than he was able to in two recent stakes tries.   

Improbable lost the post position lottery, but discounting Bob Baffert at Oaklawn is always dangerous, and the one-mile trip should suit him perfectly.   

Bankit is hard to trust on the win end between his plethora of second-place finishes and the fact that his only wins have come against New York-breds, but he is a closer who reliably runs on for a share, and should be able to do just that in this race, which has drawn so much pace.

Most Likely Winner: #3 Tom's d'Etat (3/1)

Consider at a Price:  #7 Snapper Sinclair (10/1)

Exotic Candidates: #6 M G Warrior (15/1), #14 Improbable (7/2), #8 Bankit (15/1)